If the moral argument against passing health care makes little sense, neither does the political argument. Already, a bevy of commentators are warning that pushing through health-care reform will come back to haunt Democrats at the polls this fall. That may be true, but so will not passing it. Enacting health-care reform will surely enrage the Republican Party’s already-enraged Tea Party base, along with some surly independents. But in both the House and Senate, Democrats have already voted for Obamacare, which means that they’ll be in the crosshairs of those voters no matter what. At least by passing something they will give their own party activists a reason to turn out. (It’s worth remembering that Democrats lost Congress in 1994 not only because their support for tax increases and gun control drove conservatives to the polls, but because their support for NAFTA prompted many liberals to stay home.)
What’s more, many voters say they’re upset about gridlock in Washington. According to a recent Quinnipiac poll, about half of the country considers Obama’s first year a failure. If they think that now, imagine how they’ll feel when the single biggest item on his legislative agenda collapses. Democrats have gone through this once before. They abandoned their health-care reform effort in 1994, and voters didn’t exactly reward them for it come fall.
The reality is this. As recently as last summer, a small majority of Americans supported Obama’s health-care reform effort. In the six months since, support has deteriorated in direct proportion to the deterioration in Barack Obama’s approval ratings more generally. The reason has less to do with revelations about the details of Obamacare than with a broader change in the national mood. Obama has massively increased the deficit in a bid to save the economy, and yet the economy—as experienced by most Americans—remains horrendous. In this environment, it’s no surprise that fewer Americans support Obama’s health-care plans. Fewer probably think he’s a good basketball player too.
Ultimately, Obama’s political fortunes will turn on whether Americans feel genuine economic improvement by the time he runs for re-election. If the economy turns around, and he signs health-care reform, he’ll win a major re-election victory and he’ll have had the most significant first term of any Democratic president in four decades. If the economy turns around, and Obama doesn’t sign health-care reform, he’ll be Bill Clinton—a cerebral, eloquent, savvy liberal able to save his own political skin but unable to make profound change. The choice is his.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-01-20/health-care-or-bust
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