Is it possible the party didn't want Coakley to win?

[noamnety]

Tossing that out there, because I see some evidence of some obvious things you don't do during a campaign, and because it seems the democrats might have some motivation for wanting less than 60 votes. It gives them some cover when things don't happen.

Thoughts?

[gateley]

1. I think you're giving them too much strategic credit. I think they were caught

snoozing.

[LaydeeBug]

20. or on vacation. nt

[gateley]

21. Zing! You nailed it! nt

[Clio the Leo]

2. I've certainly wondered.....

... given what a moderate Brown is turning out to be. Maybe not so much the party but ..... well, you know.

Being from a bluer state, Brown certainly has the motivation to be more open to liberal legislation than Nelson was if you get my drift. And by the time everyone realize Brown was a contender, Coakley had proved to be monumental screw up. Is that something you want to have to deal with? hmmmmmm

[karynnj]

26. We have no idea how moderate he will be

He needs to determine if he wants to be a conservative favorite or stay in the seat. (The nightmare scenario is that he wants to be either the President or more likely VP.) It is hard to imagine that the Democrats would pick another candidate who would decide that campaigning was not important and who was not prepared on foreign policy for the debates.

[Clio the Leo]

28. His "Issues" page on his web site reads pretty moderate....

.... not anti-immigration, gay marriage left to the states (as opposed to what DOMA says), women have the right to make their parental decisions with their doctors etc.

Interesting read to say the least.

[karynnj]

33. But, his issues page is at variance with what he told his supporters and

his record. If he really believed everything on that page - he would quickly realize that he was to the left of Snowe and Collins and a good portion of the Republicans. How many Republicans would say of gay marriage that it is settled law in Massachusetts? He is MittRomney II - If he really had those positions, a week in the caucus with McConnell, and he would decide to become a Democrat.

[Xipe Totec]

3. Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity

- Heinlein's Razor

[Jersey Devil]

5. LOL, thanks for the laugh

True as hell but still funny

[noamnety]

8. Generally that is a good rule

but I'm not sure it applies to politicians.

Gosh, we had no clue the banks would spend stimulus money on bonuses
Gosh, we never imagined the war would last more than 6 months or cost so much

[Xipe Totec]

19. The full quote goes on to say

Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity, but don't rule out malice.

[Bucky]

9. Hanlon's Razor, I thought.

Wiki says "Heinlein" is just a theory of the origin of the mysterious Hanlon.

[Xipe Totec]

18. Yes, I read that Wiki page too

but Hanlon's quotation is 1980, whereas Heinlein's is 1941.

[inthebrain]

4. I had considered this

It does SEEEM like Coakley threw this and the Dems latey certainly have shown more concern for corporations than the workers. It was mentioned by Huffington that the adminstration doesn't like it mentioned that they have been diddeling with big pharma and the insurance companies.

Overall I think the left pretty much stayed home to send a message. The number bear that out.

[MissDeeds]

30. Interesting ideas

Either she was the most inept candidate in recent history, or...? Her "campaign" was a train wreck. And why didn't the party help her from the onset to make sure she won - especially with so much riding on her candidacy?

I agree, the left stayed home to send a message. I just hope the message was received and that changes will take place before the 2010 elections.

[Bucky]

6. No, it's not possible. You can't get 5 Dem operatives in a room & have them agree to lose

If there's any double ricochet slapshot theory to explain last night's loss, I'd look to the theory that rank and file Dems were wanting Obama to gut up and quit compromising to avoid a filibuster.

The truth is last night measures out at a protest against a bad economy and a lack of fighting Dems on the airwaves. There's no conspiracy here, just lackluster marketing on the part of machine Democrats.

[Jennicut]

7. No, Coakley just ran a bad campaign and the WH and really the media had no idea

she was in trouble until it was too late.

[guruoo]

12. That is the most plausable explanation for this, IMO n/t.

[proud2BlibKansan]

14. I agree. I also think they should have known.

That's just downright scary that they were that clueless.

[proud2BlibKansan]

10. No. They weren't organized enough.

She ran an AWFUL campaign. If the party had been involved (as they should have) she would have been told not to go on vacation less than a month before the election.

[noamnety]

11. Why wasn't the party involved?

You don't think the lack of support was a decision?

[proud2BlibKansan]

13. No I don't believe they worked on it much at all.

There is a possibility they believed the seat was safe and they didn't need to get involved.

Or there is a (I believe stronger) possibility that they are disorganized and not doing much work at all to save seats or build the party.

Tim Kaine is the pitts. He is from here and I worked on a US Senate campaign last summer that literally begged Kaine to come here and help raise money for our candidate. He was running against Pat Roberts, who failed badly with his 9/11 commission and owns Haliburton stock. It should have been easy to beat him. But Kaine never even responded to the numerous requests to help out and the DSSC wouldn't help either.

I don't believe they have a strategy at all. Just an office. They certainly don't appear to be working on building our party.

[Born_A_Truman]

15. Lawrence O'Donnell brought that up last night

with Chris Matthews. He wouldn't name sources but said that if Coakley won, she would own the seat for years and (PTB) didn't want that. As I said, he did not name names, but told Chris to do some digging.

[noamnety]

16. Ahh, I missed that.

makes me feel less crazy for seeing connections between actions and motivations, anyway.

[noamnety]

32. I found the clip you were talking about

http://videos.mediaite.com/video/MSNBCs-Lawrence-ODonnell-Martha

Kennedy's hated her ... inside job, etc. Interesting interview.

[Midwestern Democrat]

35. I doubt this. I think the party was clearly aware that Coakley was an

enormous comedown from the calibre of men who typically hold a US Senate seat in Massachusets (Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Paul Tsongass, etc) - at least I thought so - but they did not want to lose this seat.

[karynnj]

36. Let's see what conjecture we can make

Rule out Bill Clinton - he endorsed her in the primary and came in the difficult last week.

Rule out John Kerry - First, he cares far too much about passing legislation. Not to mention, I assume that doing 3 rallies for her was not likely what his doctor would have hoped he would do less than 2 weeks after hip replacement surgery. Not to mention he called Brown out on his supporters actions.

Rule out Obama - he wouldn't have come. Not to mention losing a seat now hurts his agenda.

Patrick? - I doubt he would have the power.

The Kennedys - if any wanted it - months after Teddy's death would be when they had the greatest emotional strength.

[depakid]

17. It appears that a significant number of the rank & file didn't

[Marblehead]

22. crossed my mind as well

now the mainstream media is claiming healthcare reform is dead

[noamnety]

23. I have to believe the democrats know

that most people are pissed off about the state of the health insurance bill. I also think a fair number of folks who think they support it now would be pissed off when they realize the effect once it's actually implemented. Not having enough votes might be the best way to save face while getting out of the mess at this point.

[Marblehead]

24. good point

[karynnj]

25. NO - First of all, there is no ubiquitous "they", but if there were:

If they didn't, Bill Clinton, working day and night on Haiti would not have gone.
If they didn't, Obama would not have gone.
If they didn't, would John Kerry have gone to 3 or 4 Coakley rallies less than 2 weeks after he had a hip replacement, which he scheduled not to interfere with the Senate schedule. (He also went to a meeting with Haitians in Boston - and spoke to them in French to explain what was being done.)

[sendero]

31. There ya go..

.. some good old logic.

I agree with you. The brilliant folks running the show didn't realize there was a problem until it was too late.

At that point, not even Obama could pull it out.

[karynnj]

37. I think it was too late

For whatever reason, her lack of doing anything allowed him to put up a web site that defined him as a moderate. (I actually wonder if his Hannity crowd fan club realizes that he thinks gay marriage is "settled law in Massachusetts" or that he is "pro-choice". ) Now, these and other positions are not consistent with his record. Had she been paying attention - quoting Ted Kennedy's description of Romney as not pro-choice, but multiple choice, might have brought the issue up. That would have forced him to make a choice - say he is pro-choice and explain his record - admit his web site was wrong.

Brown, oddly seemed to get away with defining himself two ways - as a conservative to his base and a moderate to people outside it.

Meanwhile - and this is from someone not in Massachusetts. It sounds like he defined her negatively via a series of cherry picked cases - all of which seemed really bad from his descriptions. From people here, some concerned them too. Then she had that series of gaffes. I live in NJ, ignore baseball other than going to the occasional METS game with my husband, but I knew who Curt Schilling was - and I knew because people were mad when he campaigned for Bush in NH in 2004 and because he briefly threatened to run against Kerry and again this year - and I knew he was a Red Sox hero.

With those two definitions, I doubt any one other than Coakley really could have made the difference - and I think it would have taken something extremely dramatic and defining. Endorsements help but they go only so far.

[Justice]

27. in my town, I did not see the machine cranked up for Coakley

no town people working to put up yard signs or calling or anything.

I thought many of the mayors and local pols endorsed Capuano in the primary - not sure if they came out in the general or if they were even asked to.

[treestar]

29. No

that's as crazy as going the Diebold route

[Marblehead]

34. just heard on Ron Reagans'

show, he heard from a Dem senate staffer that the Dems are relieved that they don't have to pass anything now...relieved

[themaguffin]

38. No, not at all. As well documented, her campaign failed to be a campaign

[noamnety]

39. I agree her campaign failed to be a campaign

I'm questioning if the only reason for that was "she sucks at campaigning."

Seems like the party would provide consultants, experienced campaign coordinators, speech writers, funding, effective tv spots, etc. if the seat was so important to them - so important that it was the only way they could get their health bill passed.

[spoony]

40. The way I see it, we have two real possibilities

And both are ugly: that the Dems were so nonchalant about this that they let all of what you describe slide out of pure slovenliness, or they let her fail because it's now a convenient excuse not having the super majority. I think you're right to ask, and whichever is the real explanation it doesn't speak well at all for the rapidly approaching midterms.