and for a little Presidential historical perspective: Sound familiar? from November 16, 1982

[Pirate Smile]

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Sound familiar?

From the Washington Post; November 16, 1982:

KANSAS CITY -- Republican governors, their ranks thinned by the Nov. 2 midterm election, turned on President Reagan's representatives here today and blamed their losses on the nationwide unemployment problem and administration policies that are "scaring people to death."

South Dakota Gov. William Janklow, a conservative Republican, used that phrase in arguing with White House pollster Richard B. Wirthlin's claim that there is broad public support for Reagan's policies and the Republican Party faces "no problem that can't be solved by a 3 percent growth rate."

The 19 Republican governors gathered here -- almost a third of whom will not be back in office next year -- listed a dozen other concerns, ranging from huge federal budget deficits, excessive military spending and a general perception that "Republicans care only about the rich" to antagonism of minorities and women, tolerance of narrow-focus, negative campaign groups, and what Janklow called "screwball ideas" for changing Social Security...

And on and on it goes. I've written extensively about the striking non-ideological parallels between Reagan and Barack Obama -- the nature of their appeal, the circumstances of their elections, the economic conditions they inherited, and the enormous hope and expectations that greeted their inaugurations.

And the trajectories of their presidencies are now synching up. There's such a thing as relying too much on history, yes, but the Reagan example can't be emphasized enough in the face of Obama's current political woes. The '82 midterms were a bloodbath for the GOP -- as this fall looks to be for Democrats. Had there been a Massachusetts-like special Senate election in early '82, Reagan's GOP almost certainly would have lost it. As his first term neared the halfway point, the "Reagan Revolution" of 1980 was rapidly being written off as a one-time fluke -- a temper tantrum by a confused electorate that was quickly discovering the error of its ways.

Paul Krugman suggested last week that Reagan, unlike Obama, didn't suffer the same political recriminations in 1981 and '82 that Obama is suffering now because he continued to blame the country's problems on Jimmy Carter. This is completely wrong. Reagan was dismissed as a failure -- by his own party. Sure, he tried to point the finger at Carter (just as Obama has mentioned more than a few times that he walked into a mess); but in the face of 10 percent unemployment that -- it was decreed -- he didn't have an answer for, the blame-game didn't resonate. The GOP, two years removed from a staggering landslide (the party had scored a net gain of 12 Senate seats in 1980!), was in retreat. Then as now, voters live in only the present tense, exhibiting neither collective memory nor collective foresight.

This is why I wrote the following almost exactly a year ago, before Obama was sworn-in:

The Reagan example comes with a cautionary note, though. After his tax cuts were enacted, there was no improvement in the economy. In fact, the country plunged into a recession in 1981 and 1982. The lack of tangible improvement in their lives soured Americans on their president, and by September '82, Reagan recorded a negative approval rating—50 percent disapproved, while 46 percent approved—for the first time. The midterm elections of '82 were a blood bath for his party, which lost 26 seats in the House. As Reagan reached the halfway point of his first term, the prospect of defeat in 1984 was all too real.

Of course, the economy promptly went into recovery, and in the '84 campaign Americans fell in love with Reagan all over again. His revolution, at least for the time, was validated, but it's easy to forget how closely he flirted with failure.

Posted by Steve Kornacki at 7:00 PM


http://stevekornacki.blogspot.com/2010/01/sound-familiar.html

[zipplewrath]

1. The differences are staggering

Much of the cause of the recession at that time can be traced to huge fluctuations in oil prices. Interest rates were huge. That was a "weak" recession in many ways. This one we are in now will not quickly resolve itself in the same way. The stimulus was too weak, the nation is sitting on houses they can't sell nor refinance. I wouldn't hope too much for the same kinds of results.

If there is hope for the future it lies in the fact that all signs point to the fact that the people were looking for "change" and hadn't found it. Some basic populist actions on the part of either party could lead to huge momentum swings. This court ruling however changes the whole game. 'Twill be interesting to see how this plays out.

[bluestateguy]

2. Obama is a Reagan of the Left

nt