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Edited on Sun Jan-24-10 09:20 AM by RBInMaine
1) The immediate cause of Coakley not getting at least 51% and winning was that she and her team ran a terrible, terrible campaign amid a severe recession when voters are angry and frustrated and very willing to consider "outsiders". Had she run a real campaign, she would have won. (BUT it would still have been relatively close for a Mass. election with many added lessons to still learn.)
2) Brown didn't win because MA (or the country) is taking a huge lurch to the right. Most people have little faith in "Washington" regardless of party. There is a severe recession on, and they are angry and frustrated and continue to be in an anti-incumbent "change" mood not having perceived enough progress with Obama and the Dems in charge. Brown positioned himself as an "independent moderate outsider" and tapped into voter anger and frustration. He campaigned like hell. Coakley virtually went to sleep.
3) INDEPENDENTS gave the race to Brown, a number of whom had voted for Obama. Get this clear: In MANY races, especially larger ones, INDEPENDENTS determine the winner. You ignore them at your peril. Yes, the "base" is also very, very important, don't misunderstand, but you MUST appeal and persuade beyond the base in many instances if you want to win. That is plain reality. Obama and Dems are losing the INDEPENDENTS right now who SWUNG them into office in '06 and '08, and THAT is the particulary scary part. Coakley got 47% of the vote. Really not a bad showing given her horrid campaign. She overwhelmingly got the "liberal base." BUT she LOST heavily among INDYS.
4) Where to go from here?: a) First, run energetic campaigns with clear, populist messages.
b) Dems need to focus heavily on populist themes and clearly frame the R's as being the bedfellows of the past, obstruction, and corporate America. Yes, some Dems are guilty of these too with their far more diverse caucus, but they need to hunker down and understand that folks want responsive, accountable government that is working for THEM. Yes, go after the banks and the bonuses, getting the rest of the TARP money back, passing the new financial regulations, attacking this horrid SCOTUS campaign finance decision with new legislation, and passing more jobs initiatives NOW.
c) Obama needs to come out in his State of the Union with FIREBRAND, clear, solid, concrete, largely populist messaging. He is very good at this if he wants to do it. This is going to be a very critical speech. But he has great skills as a messenger, and he needs to seize this opportunity. Americans want clear, solid LEADERSHIP right now.
d) On healthcare, pass the widely popular insurance reform pieces NOW to gain some credibility with the skeptical public, and wait a little while and continue to work on the expansion pieces which are the severe sticking points. THEN focus like a laser on new jobs initiatives. It is ALL about the ECONOMY.
e) The Dems need to GET TOGETHER and MESSAGE better. They always do a poor job in their messaging, and right now the country is clearly ready for a strong populist message. *** They don't want too much government, but they do want government out there acting assertively for THEM and not Wall Street and the rich.
f) ATTACK the obstructionist Republicans. Stop thinking you are going to get anywhere with the RePUKES. Won't happen. They smell blood in obstruction. Aggressively push the populist legislation, and AGGRESSIVELY MESSAGE their obstruction attempts to what Americans clearly want. There is actually great opportunity here to knock the R's right back on their heels. And, if needed, use reconciliation to get some things done. (BUT, you can't do that with the ENTIRE health bill. You could with PARTS of it and other measures. Don't be fooled by reconciliation. It is a procedure with many restrictions.)
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