Crist Speculation Grows - Preparing to leave GOP and run as an independent

[jefferson_dem]

Whoa! Could be a bombshell. Actually, I don't really have a problem if this happens. Meek is getting no traction. And "Senator" Rubio would suck!

Crist Speculation Grows

Jack Funari: "Two highly placed and independent sources, speaking strictly on background, tell me that Gov. Charlie Crist is preparing to leave the Republican Party and run as an independent in the race for the U.S. Senate."

Read more: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/02/25/crist_speculation_grows.html#ixzz0gbWkAkKL

[bluestateguy]

1. Oooooh! a "highly placed and independent sources, speaking strictly on background"

Cowards. Real men go on the record.

[glowing]

2. I've been speculating that would be smart for him.. If he does, I think he'll win

AND he can vote without worrying about the crazies.

[Happyhippychick]

3. Yippee! Splitting the vote is a gooooood thing!

[jefferson_dem]

4. Sign of things to come, I hope.

The Dem versus the Teabaggin' Repuke and the Garden Variety Assholish Repuke.

[Clio the Leo]

5. Yes!!!! NT

[Orlandodem]

6. This would be GREAT!

It could split the right wing vote and lead to a Meek win. It reduces the chance that Jeb's protege' would win!

[ShadowLiberal]

7. If he does this could turn into a CT Lieberman style race in my opinion

If Crist does run as an independent then I think this race has all the makings of a CT style race where Lieberman won as an independent.

With the exception of Crist losing a primary (and just dropping out to make it to the general election) look at the similar features of these two races.

-A race where one party looks like a sure winner (Dems in CT, GOP in FL), but has a divisive primary between a moderate and a much more 'radical' person (I say radical for lack of a better word from democrats being liberal and republicans conservative)

-A race where the 'losing' party is running a candidate who's just gaining zero traction (the GOP's guy in CT, and Meek in FL, I mean lets face it, it's been like a year, and Meek from what I recall hasn't ever really been that competitive)

-A race where the 'losing' party's candidate doesn't seem to really be inspiring the base much (in CT the GOP candidate got single digit support on election day, and I haven't seen enough enthusiasm for Meek to make him competitive yet, heck it's become conventional wisdom almost that he's a sacrificial candidate with no shot at winning)

-A race where the 'losing' party has a bad political environment, and probably wouldn't stand much of a shot at winning no matter who they run.

I could definitely see the same thing happening in Florida, Meek fails to inspire enough support to be a candidate with a shot at winning, Rubio is too radical to take a comfortable lead in the polls in a 3 way race like this, and Crist ends up benefiting both from his popularity as governor/semiincumbent status, and also from Meek supporters voting for Crist to avoid having Rubio becoming a senator.

It could easily happen with Crist as an independent, Crist is a guy who has already polled with EQUAL approval/disapproval numbers among democrats, republicans, and independents all at the same time. That to me looks like the kind of a guy who stand on his own 2 legs in a three way contest like this.

[Jennicut]

11. I live in CT and agree with that assessment. I think Crist would win this way.

He is a moderate and will pick off moderates of both parties. I wish Meek would have a chance but he looks weak at this point.

[Colobo]

8. Wow! Didn't see that one coming!

[Yavin4]

9. That Move Alone Would Force Rubio To Moderate His Positions

Rubio would be facing a Governor who would get a ton of Dem support and a lot of Republican support. Crist's current support 30% of Republicans would mean that he'd only need 21% of the Dems to win. Easy math.

Thus, Rubio would need to moderate his positions in order to broaden his support, and that would anger his base.

[quaker bill]

10. Interesting

My experiene in FL is that even a weak and more or less unknown Democratic Party candidate can pull a reliable 35 to 40 percent of the vote. In a two candidate race, this equals a landslide defeat. However, in a three candidate race, the default base voting for any candidate with a (D) after his/her name would be enough to make this race close. If Meek can do just a little better than the default vote for any (D) candidate, he could win in this scenario.

There is this notion that Charley Crist "is" a popular governor. It is in fact more accurate to state that Charley Crist "was" a popular governor, his numbers have fallen quite a bit. He is being seen as a less than effective leader during this economic downturn. Crist would pull enough potential Rubio support in a three candidate race to eliminate his chances. However, Rubio will likely pull 20 to 25 percent in the general as a pro-life teabagger, despite his growing connections to the republican party fundraising and credit card scandal.

This means that Charley Crist would have to poach a significant slice of the Democratic Party base to win. This is not beyond the realm of possibility, but it will not be as easy for him as it was during the race for govenor. I think a three party race boosts Meek's chances to at least 50:50.

[monmouth]

12. My local Dem party had heard he would switch to Dem. Wishful

thinking on their part I guess. Either way, Rubio sucks big time..Go Charlie!

[OnceRepublican]

13. In case he doesn't I have switched party affiliation

I switch from Dem to Pub for the August primary so I can vote for Crist, I guess I am pulling a "Limbaugh". I think its a smart move, Rubio would be a complete and utter disaster and Crist is more moderate. Time to face facts however, I don't think Meek stands a chance. Who agrees with my actions?

[monmouth]

14. I do the same thing and agree Meek is almost unheard of down

here in PBC. I agree with our actions....lol.

[suzie]

15. Meek's only chance would seem to be if both Crist and Rubio drop out at the last minute.