Jobs data show signs of a turning point

[HughMoran]

Jobless rate could rise again as more workers start looking



By John W. Schoen
Senior producer
msnbc.com
updated 3:18 p.m. ET, Fri., March. 5, 2010

The U.S. jobs market appears to be at a turning point.

After more than two years of staggering pain for workers, the latest employment data include signs that a historic wave of heavy job losses may be ending, although only modest gains are expected in the near future.

And even as the economy begins creating those new jobs, the unemployment rate could rise back above 10 percent, say some economists. In any case, it will likely be years before it falls again to “normal” levels or anywhere near the 5 percent where it stood before the recession began in December 2007.

...

But the news about jobs may get worse before it gets better.

That’s because the widely followed unemployment rate may move higher again before it begins a longer-term decline. The reason is the mathematical flip side of the reason it has fallen from its peak of 10.1 percent over the past few months.

The "official" jobless rate represents the number of unemployed workers as a percentage of the work force, as measured by a survey of households. But to be counted in the work force, you have to be actively looking for a job. (Officially, “actively” means at some time in the past four weeks.)

As the job market went from bad to worse in the recession, the labor force shrank by roughly two million, in part because many people stopped looking for work.

...

“The February jobs report suggests that the economy is on the verge of creating jobs, and that it will break through to sustained job creation beginning in March,” Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, wrote in a note to clients Friday.

... more here -> http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35728769/ns/business-answer_desk

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Looks like the official rate may stay flat, though more people will be working. Slow and steady is probably the best we're going to see for a while.

[EVDebs]

1. But foreclosures are going to increase....

http://www.youwalkaway.com/about.php

[HughMoran]

2. youwalkaway.com

:rofl:

[Clio the Leo]

3. Considering how bad everyone expected the report to be....

... today's numbers weren't that bad.

And given that things fell a bit in Feb. ... March has the potential to be massive (ly good!)