"Five days (to watch) in May"

[Clio the Leo]

Five days in May

Five days in May -- from the 18th to the 22nd -- will tell us much about just how bad the political environment is, and will be, for House Democrats this fall.

On May 18, voters in southwestern Pennsylvania will pick a replacement for the late Rep. John Murtha in a special election. Businessman Tim Burns (R) and former Murtha district director Mark Critz (D) will carry their respective party banners in the 12th district special election.

Four days later, a second special election will be held -- this one in Hawaii's 1st district. Two Democrats -- state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa and former Rep. Ed Case -- as well as Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) will face off in a winner-take-all race.

For Republicans to build genuine momentum -- and perk up what, to date, has been surprisingly sluggish fundraising -- it would help immensely to win one of these two races.

House Democrats are currently on an amazing five-race winning streak in contested special election that dates back all the way to 2008 and it's hard for Republicans to make the case that the majority is in play if they can't take advantage of the favorable political climate to steal a race in the runup to the midterms. (If Republicans swing and miss at these two races, they're likely to have a third chance in a special election for former New York Rep. Eric Massa's 29th district although Gov. David Paterson has yet to set a special election date.)


On paper, Pennsylvania's 12th looks like the better of the two options for Republicans as it was the only district in the country to vote for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004 and then support Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008.

But, Democrats have a major registration edge in the district and the timing of the special to coincide with primaries across the state likely gives Critz a leg up since Democrats are playing host to very competitive primaries for governor and Senate while Republicans have little going on statewide to help drive turnout for Burns.

Hawaii, however, is shaping up to be a major headache for Democrats for two reasons. First, Case and Hanabusa seem to be moving toward an all-out assault on one another with the likely result being a fractured Democratic party vote. Second, the winner-take-all nature of the special elections means that that sort of splintering of votes between two well-known commodities in the Democratic party could make Djou a winner if he can simply consolidate Republican votes and peel away a few Democratic-leaning independents. (All of the candidates run on a single ballot.)

A loss in a district as Democratic as Hawaii -- it is, in fact, President Obama's home district -- would have an effect on Democratic elected officials similar to that of Sen. Scott Brown's (R) victory in Massachusetts in January. That is to say, panic.

more...
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/the-line/four-days-in-may.html?wprss=thefix

[Drunken Irishman]

1. TWO Democrats are running against ONE Republican in Hawaii?

Well that has Republican victory written all over it.

[HughMoran]

5. It's moronic if you ask me

Which one of these Dems is being paid by the Republicans? :eyes:

[Yuugal]

2. my advice: stop running Coakleys

Out of curiosity I went to the political compass site that people post on here all the time and compared the challenger Capuano to my views. He was at 75% which is a very close match to my progressive ideals. Then I compared my test results to Coakley and she was at 43%. 43? I couldn't believe it so just for shits and giggles I compared her test results to the field of 2008 repukes for prez and found that Ron Paul also scored 43% compared to me. So basically, the DLC dems were stupid enough to run a repuke for a liberal seat and tried to fool real dems into voting for her.

Mass voters, faced with a choice between a real republicker and one wearing a D in front of their name showed they were smarter than that and voted for the real thing. If they had fallen for the party line they would have doomed themselves to possibly 8-20 years of a DLC turd in their seat. In 2012 I'm sure they will rectify the situation if the party gets its corporate bribed head out of it's ass and puts up a real D for them to vote for. The thing is, our party is so bought out right now I doubt they will.

edited for spelling

[corkhead]

3. Religiously insane snake handlers have more power in their party than we do in ours

yet we have to be concerned about their eligibility. If only the republicons would run to the middle when they are scared like we do.:banghead:

[Arkana]

6. Martha Coakley is about as far from a "DLC repuke" as you can get.

Her loss had nothing to do with her politics. She's a good deal more liberal than about 90% of the Democrats in the Senate currently, and she's been a hell of an AG for the state.

[Jennicut]

4. Why on earth are the Dems having two candidates running on one ballot?

I know no one can stop them but it is pure stupidity.
On the other hand a poll from Jan shows Case and Hanabusa both leading the Repub:

Mason-Dixon poll conducted for KITV and the Honolulu Star-Bulletin poll has Case with 37 percent of the vote, state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa (D) with 25 percent and Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) with 17 percent.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/76599-case-leads-early-in-hawaii-special-election

[AlinPA]

7. PA 12 (Murtha's seat) is now heavy with teabaggers. The teabagger (Burns) will win easily.

He is a millionaire and will blow away Critz with his money and backing. Plus Critz (D) is a dud and as bad or worse than Coakley was as a candidate.