The Math - keeping the former yes votes and flipping no to yes votes

[Laura PourMeADrink]

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2010/03/do-pelosi-and-the-democrats-have-the-health-care-votes-heres-the-math-.html


You will see below that there is no margin for error. And this remains somewhat fluid as Pelosi searches for her final handful of votes. But here is a snapshot of the current landscape.

There is a universe of roughly 15 previous YES votes from which Democrats are worried about losing a handful.

Right now, it looks like they can afford to lose NO MORE than 7 of these YES votes most of which will come from the Democratic anti-abortion rights crowd.

But what about previous YES votes that Democrats need to work to keep YES? The White House and Democratic leadership on Capitol Hill are prepared to lose some of these. The first six names below are of most concern to the Democratic leadership and most likely to bolt.

Stupak
Carney
Rahall
Berry
Driehaus
Arcuri
Dahlkemper
Pomeroy
Ellsworth
Hill
Grijalva
Gutierrez
Owens
Cardoza
Costa

Of the 37 currently serving Democratic members of the House who voted NO on health care in November, there is a highly targeted group of 15 that are publicly undecided that Pelosi hopes she flips from NO to YES to make up for any of the above YES defectors.

Democrats know they will not be able to flip all 15. Probably fewer than 10 are willing to flip on the final vote.

The first nine names listed below are the top tier NO-to-YES targets for the Democratic leadership out of this group of 15. And no Democrat on the Hill seems to think leadership will get all nine of them to flip which is why Democrats are trying to keep their YES defectors above to seven at a maximum.

Baird
Gordon
Altmire
Boccieri
Kosmas
Murphy
Markey
Teague
Kucinich
Tanner
Boyd
Matheson
Nye
Barrow
Childers
Davis - TN

[Clio the Leo]

1. looks like we have more calling to do!!! NT

[Jennicut]

2. It is like walking a tightrope. But no one seems to no what the real whip count is.

Except maybe Nancy Pelosi. Fineman and Stupak say she is -16. Firedoglake says about -11. The Hill says there are 37 definite nos. That may change with DK's announcement per Fineman tomorrow that he will vote for the bill. Who knows at this point?

[Cronus Protagonist]

3. Looking good

How much MORE can we give away to get the votes of these DINOs?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. I don't know - because if it were me I would let them filibuster

for sure. I remember when we had the floor speeches during the first go round. there our women were, one by one, talking compassion and how much they care about the less fortunate. It was in stark contrast to the other side -it made them look so damn cold and selfish. It's very difficult to look good when people's lives are at stake.

[Lochloosa]

5. One problem with that. There is no filibuster in the House.

It's an up or down vote. Period. If the bill does not pass, it's dead. Done. Gone.