Rising Tide for HCR, Especially Among Dems
Mark Blumenthal | March 17, 2010 Topics: Dennis Kucinich , Health Care Reform , Tom Jensen , Trend lines
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When reporters asked Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) today about whether his intention to vote for the health reform bill might convince other doubting Democrats, he answered: "If I can vote for this bill, there's not many people who shouldn't be able to support it."
Kucinich's decision had no effect on the polls conducted earlier this week, and I do not expect his announcement alone to significantly impact public opinion. However, as PPP's Tom Jensen put it earlier today, Kucinich's "flip...is symbolic of a broader shift" that has occurred in recent weeks as support for health reform legislation has increased among liberals and Democrats. The often vigorous debate among Democratic leaders in evidence for much of the last year has faded, and the Democratic and liberal rank-and-file are slightly more likely to express support. If the bill passes, that trend may add a few percentage points of support in the coming weeks.
First, let's look at the current snapshot of the overall trend in support for health reform as measured by our trend chart.
Now let's explode that trend a bit and consider a second chart showing apples-to-apples comparisons -- trend lines for pollsters that tracked opinion using questions whose wording did not vary over time. Six of the seven pollsters show nominal increases in support for health care reform legislation.** While only a few tracked during January, the results from all pollsters are mostly consistent with a slight decrease in support following the Massachusetts Senate election followed by a rebound during February and early January. Our trend estimate, which is based on all of the health care favor-or-oppose results and not just those plotted below, shows support increasing from a low of 40.6% on January 26 to 43.9% as of this writing.
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http://www.pollster.com/blogs/rising_tide_for_hcr_especially.php