Will HCR go to 60% after passage?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Disclaimer: I favor passage of the HCR bill.


It will be interesting to see how high short-term polling on HCR goes after it is signed.

When America is evenly split on a possibility a big chunk of the population usually runs to the winning side when the outcome is revealed.

Imagine a person who opposes all change. Do you want this HCR bill to pass? No. Five minutes after it passes, Do you want this bill repealed? No. Repealing the bill would now be Change.

Make something the status quo and a few people will fall in line. (And it's not just the public. Recalcitrant congress-persons are now rushing to support what is considered a fait acompli right at this moment.)

Presidents usually poll better right after an election than they just got in the election. And some people claim to have voted for the winner who did not, as if the opinion they held yesterday has been invalidated by the community en masse. IIRC, Iraq was a 50-50 polling proposition for months then when it became evident the war was going to happen no matter what support went up to 65+.

So I would guess that HCR will crack 60% in some polls right after passage. I expect Republicans to make major gains in 2010 but more despite of than because of HCR.

[tekisui]

1. Passage will help Democrats, that is one reason they won't

give up. If the bill fails, the repubs will hit them not only for trying to pass a AH GUBMINT TAKOVER!!1!1 of a bill, but also that they failed to get it done. They will be portrayed as ineffective.

Once the bill passes, like you said, people will move to join the winner. Passage will decrease repub gains.

[FrenchieCat]

2. I think some of what you say may be, but I'm not betting against Dems in 2010

based on conventional wisdom nor the feeling that history
must repeat itself everytime.

Since we are 8 months till the election,
which is two lifetimes in political terms,
I'll wait to see what happens after financial regulatory reform
and immigration reform and seeing how the economy comes along,
instead of simply predicting Dem doom.

I'm tired of hearing the Media's talking points on election 2010
being repeated since they are nothing more than a playback of Republican talking points.....

Any Dem that predicts the doom of their own party in an election 8 months away,
should realize that in so doing, they are helping along just that much more.
And so then the question becomes why is this the "thing to do"?
Why are we supposed to always say....and we know the Dems will lose seats?
How does that serve us so far ahead of any vote,
and with so much space for so much that could happen in the meantime?

I realize that sounding smart and seeming prescient is a commodity around here,
but the effort at speculation that it takes getting there would serve us and this party
best if instead we were expanding efforts to come up with ways that Dems can win,
instead of throwing up our hands and declaring Dems losers just because it's so easy to do.

The other stuff you said, I agree with.

[bobbolink]

3. What you have just described is what I have been saying....

...about homelessness, in regards to "progressives".

It isn't "popular"---- it isn't the topic du jour.

If it ever becomes "popular", then more and more people will flock to it, because it is the "in" thing.... the "happening" thing.

Until then, we stumble on in isolation.

[grantcart]

4. No 60 is too high 57-58 is likely (and what Dean predicts)

As for the fall we are still too far away and too many volatile issues.


Another terror attack or the Taliban collapses.

Jobs get strong and the consumer index increases or we double dip.

How many Republican scandals will there be?

Here is the biggest question - how much Republican infighting will there be. Graham and others have indicated that they are going to start working with Democrats on Climate change and immigration, that will provoke a right wing response.

Nothing indicates more clearly that the Republicans are going to face a heated 6 months than the nasty primary campaigns that have already begun like the one for Governor of California. Meanwhile there is basic peace among Democrats. Republicans - for god's sake their Presidential nominee is having to fight out a primary race, and it could be close.

[Change Happens]

5. I think the President's numbers will get very very close to 60....nt

[damonm]

6. HCR, no. The POTUS, yes.

And that only over the short term.

Bear in mind that disapproval of HCR only goes down 5% after facts are known, so there's a solid 43% disapproving. So that 5 point swing puts it at 45-43. Then factor in the 12% undecided (according to RCP's latest average), and say they break 3-1 for a winner, that puts it to 54-46.
My guess is that HCR popularity goes to mid-50s.
Now the Pres, OTOH, once the bill has apssed, the media will be singing his praises for his courage and tenacity (as they would lambaste him for his stubbornness should the issue fail), and his popularity will soar to near-inaugural heights.