You know who I could see running for President in 2016? Amy Klobuchar.

[liberalpragmatist]

File this under "stupid predictions to be dug out and laughed at seven years from now," but I was thinking the other day about who would Democrats run in 2016. There's no obvious successor to Obama (whether or not he wins a second term). Hillary or Biden might run, but they'll both be fairly old and have said they have no interest as of now.

So who'll be running? Most likely the candidates will be people in their late 40s through early 60s who won major office between 2006 and up through this fall (2010). Assuming he wins the governorship of NY, I could see Andrew Cuomo running. From the Senate, I could see Sheldon Whitehouse running. Maybe Mark Warner (though he passed on '08). A couple other random governors.

But I also suspect their will be STRONG pressure for a woman to be on the ticket, at least as VP. And there will probably be at least one major woman candidate on the Democratic side. And if not Hillary, then who?

Most of the other Democratic women senators are probably too old. There aren't any big state Democratic women governors. And though all pols - male or female - are affected by superficial judgments about looks, family, etc., women have even more handicaps in that area than men.

So who could fit the bill? Maybe Claire McCaskill, but she still has to win a tough reelection in '12. Also, her record is probably too centrist for Democratic primary voters and she tends to be a bit Biden-esque. Maybe Kirsten Gillibrand? Unfortunately, she may be hurt by the superficial aspects - she's very young looking and has a very high-pitched voice and girlish speaking style, which probably will handicap her.

That leads me to Amy Klobuchar. She's wildly popular in Minnesota, she's very smart, pretty charismatic (though in sort of a dorky way), ambitious, married with a young daughter, and around the perfect age. (She'll be 56 in 2016). By that point she'll have served in the Senate for 10 years. She'll have to develop her speaking style a bit - right now she comes across a bit as a likeable school principle, but I imagine that's something she could well improve on.

So there's my prediction. She'll run for president in 2016. In fact, I'll make a fool of myself and go a bit farther. In 2016, Gov. Andrew Cuomo of NY will be the early frontrunner - but being a Democratic "frontrunner" (re: Hillary, Mario Cuomo, Gary Hart, Scoop Jackson, Ed Muskie, etc.) tends to guarantee your defeat. So Klobuchar will upset Cuomo and be the 2016 Democratic nominee.

[Tony_FLADEM]

1. I predict Mark Begich will be the Democratic Nominee

[TheDebbieDee]

2. I'm from Missouri, but I'm just floored by Congr Marcy Kaptur of Ohio.

She's knowledgeable, articulate and she knows how to pushback without seeming as though she is coming unglued. Her presence reminds me a lot of SOS Hillary Clinton.

[Ikonoklast]

4. Anti-choice.

Nope.

[CTyankee]

5. Uh, isn't she an ally of Stupak on his amendment?

Do we want somebody who supported the Stupak amendment?

I kinda like Amy. If she's pro choice, I'd be fine with her. Generally, with a few outstanding exceptions, I like Minnesotans...

[TheDebbieDee]

10. I didn't know she was anti-choice - she seems so progressive otherwise.

It just goes to show you that nobody is perfect!
Scratch Marcy, then, even though I don't like to think of myself as a one-issue voter.

[damonm]

3. Ah, but what of

Janet Napolitano and Kathleen Sibelius(sp?)?
I'd lean more toward Kathleen, as HHS will have had a HUGE role in implementing HCR.

[Davis_X_Machina]

6. She won't be progressive enough for these boards.

Kucinich 20n+4, for all values of n, where n >0!

[LiberalFighter]

7. A Senator or Representative could never be elected President unless

1) They were a real war hero

2) They had previously been a Governor

3) They had previously been a VP

4) Their opponent in the General is not an incumbent President, VP, Governor, or war hero.


If Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama had a Republican Governor (except for Palin), Republican VP or war hero they would had lost. IMO based on history.

[Orangepeel]

25. McCain wasn't a war hero?

:shrug:

But I agree that a Senator or Congressperson isn't likely to win. Obviously, is very rare.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

8. Six Years is an Eternity

I know you're just speculating, and it's not a bad guess, really. But seriously - think of these people six years before the election.

George W. Bush in 1994 -- Managing Partner of the Texas Rangers. Hadn't even been elect governor yet (not till later in that year).

Bill Clinton in 1986 - hadn't yet embarrassed himself at the 1988 Democratic Convention ("And in conclusion" met with a round of applause).

Dwight Eisenhower in 1946 - still in the Army.

Barack Obama in 2002 - Illinois State Senator.

Sarah Palin in 2002 - Mayor of Wasilla, AK.

As my granddad used to say, "Anything could happen, and it usually does."

[liberalpragmatist]

9. Oh I'm WELL Aware

In the spring of 2002, there probably isn't a single person in the WORLD who would have correctly predicted the next president.

Of course, Obama's a bit of an extreme case, because he was elected to his first major office just four years before his presidential election (which in the modern era doesn't really happen). But still - the point stands. In early 1994, most people wouldn't have pegged George W. Bush. (Although, to be fair, once he won the Texas governorship, maybe.)

Still if you dig deep enough you can sometimes get decent guesses. Bill Clinton was known among political types as a rising star, although few pegged him as the '92 nominee (who everyone expected would be Cuomo). Had Hillary gotten the '08 nod that would have vindicated predictions stemming from 2000 itself. John McCain was somewhat predictable, as was John Kerry in '04.

Anyway - like I said, it's just some pointless speculation. :)

[treestar]

23. Totally agree; it is useless to consider this question now

In fact it is useless to try to predict which Republimoran will go against Obama in 2012

[WCGreen]

11. Sherrod Brown....

[soleft]

13. Yes oh yes oh yes!!!!!!

[Sebastian Doyle]

14. I don't think another Senator is going to elected President for a long long time

But I could actually vote for Brown if he was on the ballot.

Another "barely Democratic" DLC DINO like Klobuchar? I don't think so.

[HughMoran]

12. She's smart & a cutie too

:)

[brooklynite]

15. Going with Governor Brian Schweitzer (MT)

Play up the Democratic strength growing in the west

[Arkana]

20. This I would like to see.

He's popular as hell, but somehow manages to be staunchly liberal in a state not real friendly to liberals.

Also, doesn't he actually have an A rating from the NRA?

[liberalpragmatist]

21. I hope he gets a cabinet appointment when his term runs up

Yeah, he could be a good candidate. Of course, historically small-state governors don't do too well getting the nod. But he could always prove the experts wrong. My sense is a cabinet post would give him some extra cache.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

16. If you want somebody who is a strong fighter for

a ban on cell phones while driving or for safer swimming pool drains, Amy is your candidate.

If you want someone who can take an actual position on war, health care. finance, or anything else of national importance, look elsewhere. Her stock answer to all such questions is "That's a very complex issue."

I'm sure the DLC loves her, because her positions are so amorphous that no one can tell what she really believes and she will therefore not rock the corporate yachts.

This doesn't mean she won't be the nominee, but if she won the presidency, she'd be yet another caretaker for the corporate masters, someone who would say a liberal platitude every now and then but would basically keep up with business as usual.

By the way, I'm from Minnesota, and I did vote for her, but she's a typical DLC wonk and rather high-handed.

"Wildly popular in Minnesota" would be an exaggeration.

By the way, I see which people are pushing her candidacy, and I KNOW she'd be not what the country needs, if I didn't know it before.

But as usual, the DLC is thinking in terms of "cute," "nice family" instead of "Who can implement the drastic course corrections we need to make."

[argonaut]

17. Then-Governor Cory Booker (D-NJ). Count on it.

Of course, maybe 2020 or even '24 is more likely, actually...

[tabbycat31]

18. keep an eye out for Cory Booker sometime down the road

yes he's only a mayor now but he's a rising star in NJ, and we're hoping he runs for governor in 2013.

I saw him campaigning this fall and I'm convinced he's the next Obama

[Arkana]

22. If your current Governor Fatass Moron is unpopular, he should take a run at it.

[tabbycat31]

28. he's currently up for his 2nd term as mayor

and yes fatass moron is unpopular. Cory Booker will wipe the floor with Burger King in 2013 if he runs (and barring scandal)

[Arkana]

19. You're no CKJohn, buster.

;)

[MadBadger]

27. Well, thats cuz this prediction isnt that bad of a prediction.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

24. Oh, no. Not Amy.

She's my Senator and so far I've been thoroughly underwhelmed. She waffles and hems and haws and won't give you a straight answer about anything. She won't stick up for progressives. She reliably caves in to Republicans. She's gutless and she'd make a terrible President. I'm really hoping a better Democrat challenges her in the primary when she's up for re-election.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

26. By the way, this is more of the stupid "horse race" approach to politics

where people throw out random names based on nothing but "personal appeal."

Here's a novel thought--think about what the country's problems are and who is most qualified to lead us in solving them.

Last time around, people were saying things like "Evan Bayh! No, Mark Warner!"

Ugh to both, then and now. They're both DLC empty suits. Amy is another DLC empty suit.

[dkf]

29. Well anyone can run but I don't see her in the oval office.

Too bland.