Allan Lichtman:Obama is on his way to winning a second term

[bigdarryl]

DAMN!!! he said after the health care issue has been solved he is pretty sure he has it in the bag. I disagree with him on charisma though. He's saying Obama looks like he won't carry that issue in 2012. he said the democrats have to loose a net gain of 21 seats to loose midterm election key. http://www.gazette.net/stories/03262010/policol170803_32553.php

[bluestateguy]

1. His 13 keys have NEVER been wrong

although they only measure the popular vote. Gore won the 13 keys in 2000, but of course only won the popular vote, and (on paper) didn't win the electoral vote.

[bigdarryl]

3. I have Allan's book on the keys and he is always right on the popular vote in the

Presidential elections.I remember when he predicted Reagan winning reelection two years out. That one HURT!!!

[unblock]

5. to be fair, iirc, he's tweaked his definitions a bit to preserve his record

still, the keys make a lot of sense and should help to inform our understanding of what has an impact on victory and what doesn't.

for instance, mclame's pick of sarah palin likely had no effect at all in terms of who was going to win -- mclame was going to lose anyway. there's no "key" that corresponds to "bad veep choice".

i've liked obama's re-election chances a lot in terms of lichtman's keys, especially given that the economic cycles are such that things almost have to be better in 2012. after that, who knows, but in 2012 it seems unlikely things could be worse.

[DrToast]

10. Pollin suggest she hurt him

The first VP to actually matter.

[unblock]

11. i don't doubt that the choice cost him a few points in the polls

my point was that it wouldn't have made the difference in terms of winning or losing the election.
with a better choice he just would have lost by less.

[grantcart]

2. If we tighten up the loose ones we should be OK

[treestar]

4. Too soon to call that either way

But an incumbent has an advantage, especially if things are going well.

[Ikonoklast]

6. And the economy will be turning around even more by then.

Unless blindsided by some disaster.

[treestar]

8. Yes, and like the poster below says

He has good approval ratings for a country in the shape we are currently in!

[liberalpragmatist]

7. If Obama's approvals are in the upper 40s...

... at the HEIGHT of the worst recession since the Depression, that's a sign that Obama has a pretty high floor. And with even a moderate turnaround, he'd be likely to win a second term comfortably.

[bigdarryl]

9. The 13 key system doesn't deal with POLL NUMBERS Lichtman says they mean NOTHING

[unblock]

12. right, that's one of the "key" insights into his research. polls suggest NOW, not election time.

polls change as campaign seasons evolve and so on, and things like "charisma" or "short-term economy" cause people to change their minds or actually vote or not.

[LeftyAndProud60]

13. I'm not doing victory laps yet. If a terrorist attack happens or the jobs situation worsens, things

can get very bad for Obama. I just pray we don't have a republican in 2012.