"Generic Ballot" polling

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

The "generic ballot" question is a long-standing way of looking at congressional elections:

"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?"

Like presidential approval, it's a question different pollsters all ask roughly the same way so it can be compared.

Democrats always lead on this question. Even in years when we actually lose some seats we still usually lead on the generic ballot question because there are more registered Dems nationally and there are more highly concentrated Democratic districts.

The old rule of thumb was that Dems were supposed to lead by 6-8% for it to be break-even.

So the fact that we are behind in the two latest generic ballot polls is noteworthy.

USA Today/Gallup Poll. March 26-28 Dem 45% Rep 46%
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. March 25-28, Dem 45% Rep 49%
(Also down 44-47 in Gallup weekly tracking on the question but since they conduct the USA Today poll I only said two, not three)

http://pollingreport.com/2010.htm

[HughMoran]

1. There are more than 2 polls though

I just saw one 2 days ago that favored Dems by a few % & some of the others down the page at polling report did too. I'd wait a while before worrying too much about these 2 polls.

[grantcart]

2. will be interesting if Bill "Buddy" Generic runs for Congress

I would file this in the same drawer of conventional wisdom that predicted that an African American with a funny name could not be elected President.

In those other generic times were the Republicans unified? Did they have a strong national standard bearer.

Here you have the standard bearer of the Republican Party running for his life in a primary.

The Republicans are united only when they are against something, Democrats and President Obama.

When they actually have to run for something that unity will split apart as the people who want something positive done about climate change will find that they are running with people who want to take out the federal reserve and return to a gold standard.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. Well, speaking as someone who never said Obama couldn't be elected...

I am saying that historically the Dems always lead in the generic ballot except in disaster years. 1950, the election that pretty much forced Truman to not run again. 1994, which speaks for itself. 2002, the very rare instance of Republican pick-ups in an off-year election with a pug in the WH. And now.

I am a life-long follower of the generic ballot question and it performs well. (It is so important because there is never timely polling in all house races.)

Of course anything can happen but the most likely course is a truly devastating election.

And if something changes the current path then that new reality will be reflected in the generic ballot polling.


Your cause-and-effect analysis presumes that in previous monster elections people were voting for unity and message. In actuality, the unity and message are window dressing that we find in years when one party or the other has a downhill course.

And reports of Republican disunity are badly overblown... twenty years from now it will be noted that Republicans held 100% of their caucus on almost every important vote and it will be noted that were unusually unified.

As for the plight of the Republican standard-bearer, they do not have one. The idea that McCain would be popular if the pugs were doing well is off-base. McCain is not a venerable symbol, he is a scapegoat. It's not like Newt Gingrich was running on a restoration of GHW Bush in 1994 and if GHW Bush had been running for anything and had been knocked off in a primary by whatever bozo Limbaugh supported it would not have a shock or at odds with the broad narrative that in 1994 people were going to vote for whichever bozos Limbaugh supported. (Though not solely because Limbaugh supported them.)

If the Republicans were unified and had a Contract with America and all that stuff it wouldn't make all that much difference in the election. The counter assumption is that a public that would, today, deliver a crushing blow to us in Congress is likely to change their thinking based on future analysis of Republican worthlessness.

But Republican worthlessness is priced into the numbers. The public does not lack for evidence of Republican worthlessness. They don't care that Republicans are worthless. They want to vote against something.

[Robbins]

4. Generic Ballot

For years after the Republicans took Congress In 1994 Democrats lead In Generic Ballots but didn't win back the congress.I am
very skepical of generic Ballot,and If we go by history we can say Democrats will lose seats but keep the congress.And the election
Is In novemebr.Plus even If you go by these generic Ballot they are hardly landslide numbers.