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Home » Discuss » General Discussion: Presidency |
jefferson_dem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 06:55 AM Original message |
Nate: "It's time to acknowledge that the Democrats COULD lose 60 or 70 House seats." |
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opihimoimoi (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 07:09 AM Response to Original message |
1. Far more likely the Dems will gain 8 to 15 House seats and 4 to 7 Senate slots The GOP is Fucked |
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tritsofme (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 07:26 AM Response to Reply #1 |
2. The Nile aint just a river in Egypt. |
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opihimoimoi (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 11:55 AM Response to Reply #2 |
27. Past trends are trumped by new trends...GOPism is OLD .. Obamaism is IN... |
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greencharlie (827 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 01:18 PM Response to Reply #27 |
32. no |
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tritsofme (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 03:20 PM Response to Reply #27 |
41. So you don't have the districts? nt |
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opihimoimoi (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 04:04 PM Response to Reply #41 |
48. The districts you ask for are those of citizens tired of Republican't s LIES and Negativity |
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tritsofme (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 04:55 PM Response to Reply #48 |
52. Between 2006 and 2008 Democrats netted 52 seats in the House. |
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opihimoimoi (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 05:19 PM Response to Reply #52 |
54. Us Optimists are never Realistic |
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greencharlie (827 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 01:17 PM Response to Reply #1 |
31. lol... |
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WI_DEM (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 03:13 PM Response to Reply #1 |
39. Whatever your smoking I'd like some. The Dems will lose seats in both the house and senate |
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opihimoimoi (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 03:52 PM Response to Reply #39 |
46. This year is DIFFERENT...this year the GOP is into losing elections. |
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Beacool (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Apr-11-10 12:53 AM Response to Reply #1 |
76. Well, at least you're an optimist. |
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Ter (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Apr-11-10 02:03 AM Response to Reply #1 |
77. It's good to be confident |
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mgcgulfcoast (202 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Apr-11-10 12:20 PM Response to Reply #1 |
79. you and nate are worng |
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jefferson_dem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 07:43 AM Response to Original message |
3. Generic Ballot Points Toward Possible 50+ Seat Loss for Democrats |
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ccinamon (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 08:24 AM Response to Original message |
4. If more Dems act like Grayson, they would GAIN seats... |
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Davis_X_Machina (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 08:44 AM Response to Reply #4 |
5. The voters want someone who stands up for what they believe... |
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Jennicut (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 08:47 AM Response to Reply #5 |
8. You nailed it. If we sit on the sidelines and don't vote then |
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ClassWarrior (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 08:47 AM Response to Reply #4 |
7. Amen. I just posted this on another thread... |
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grantcart (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 12:42 PM Response to Reply #4 |
29. Interesting theory. BTW Grayson's seat is considered endangered. |
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tritsofme (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 04:58 PM Response to Reply #4 |
53. Grayson is on my list of reps |
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depakid (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-10-10 06:21 PM Response to Reply #4 |
72. That's exactly right- all the public pandering to the corporate right cost the Democrats dearly |
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Imajika (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Apr-11-10 12:52 PM Response to Reply #4 |
81. Why would you think Grayson is so safe? |
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NJmaverick (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 08:44 AM Response to Original message |
6. The threat is real and we all need to do what we can to make sure it doesn't happen |
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tabbycat31 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 10:16 PM Response to Reply #6 |
60. agree 100% |
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ClassWarrior (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 08:48 AM Response to Original message |
9. We need to work in this campaign like this is going to happen FOR SURE. |
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Kurt_and_Hunter (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 08:53 AM Response to Original message |
10. Oh goody, Nate makes a belated stab at relevance |
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ClassWarrior (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 09:02 AM Response to Reply #10 |
12. Wow, it must be the day for keyboard warriors to delude themselves that they're smarter than... |
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PBS Poll-435 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 02:56 PM Response to Reply #10 |
36. ? |
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Divine Discontent (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 03:38 PM Response to Reply #10 |
45. agreed, heavily. I said we'd lose dozens months ago, but that's the normal trend anyhow, and, with |
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Dr Morbius (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 09:01 AM Response to Original message |
11. I have to wonder how you define "eminence." |
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Kdillard (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 09:32 AM Response to Original message |
13. Well hopefully this will motivate people to get out there and vote. |
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Citizen Kang (424 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-10-10 03:59 AM Response to Reply #13 |
64. Yeah |
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KingFlorez (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 10:03 AM Response to Original message |
14. I think that's far too high an expectation |
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greencharlie (827 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 01:23 PM Response to Reply #14 |
34. wrongo... |
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KingFlorez (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 03:04 PM Response to Reply #34 |
38. Uh, no |
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harkadog (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-10-10 10:21 PM Response to Reply #38 |
74. Uh, yes |
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KingFlorez (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Apr-11-10 12:24 AM Response to Reply #74 |
75. Whatever you want to believe |
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Ter (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Apr-11-10 02:08 AM Response to Reply #38 |
78. But Oliie North still lost |
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dbmk (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-10-10 06:51 PM Response to Reply #14 |
73. Then its good its not an expectation. n/t |
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Hosnon (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-12-10 12:37 PM Response to Reply #73 |
91. +1. nt |
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Hosnon (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-12-10 12:36 PM Response to Reply #14 |
90. It's not an expectation. It's an outcome that Nate thinks has entered |
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impik (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 10:07 AM Response to Original message |
15. People gets what they deserve. The American people are stupid |
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tekisui (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 10:11 AM Response to Reply #15 |
16. It is a sign of candidate and party weakness to blame the voters. |
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impik (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 10:15 AM Response to Reply #16 |
17. Yea, sure. We'll meet in 2012 when Palin become president |
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tekisui (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 10:20 AM Response to Reply #17 |
18. That's not going to happen. |
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impik (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 10:24 AM Response to Reply #18 |
19. No, the problem is that we, the "base" |
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tekisui (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 10:28 AM Response to Reply #19 |
20. You are wrong. |
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treestar (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-10-10 06:09 PM Response to Reply #16 |
69. So the voters are helpless? |
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Proud Liberal Dem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 10:32 AM Response to Original message |
21. Nate seems to be pretty good |
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Cosmocat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 11:18 AM Response to Reply #21 |
24. I agree ... |
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Rage Inc. (429 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 10:34 AM Response to Original message |
22. Silver loses Gold! |
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Arkana (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 11:01 AM Response to Original message |
23. I think Nate's describing an absolute worst-case scenario. |
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Proud Liberal Dem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 11:19 AM Response to Reply #23 |
25. That WOULD be an absolute WORST-CASE scenario!!! |
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Arkana (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 12:49 PM Response to Reply #25 |
30. We'd need to see an organized '94-level GOP to do this. |
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Proud Liberal Dem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 02:40 PM Response to Reply #30 |
35. Exactly my point |
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shotten99 (478 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Apr-11-10 12:56 PM Response to Reply #30 |
82. That's what gives me a relative amount of hope |
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Uzybone (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 11:45 AM Response to Original message |
26. More Silver |
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Teaser (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 12:28 PM Response to Reply #26 |
28. The standard deviation on this prediction is huge |
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Raine1967 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 01:22 PM Response to Original message |
33. And they won't if we make sure it doesn't happen. WE ARE THE MAJORITY! |
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AuntPatsy (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 03:01 PM Response to Original message |
37. Is this sarcasm? |
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old mark (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 03:16 PM Response to Original message |
40. Absolute bullshit. The only we will lose ANY seats is if too many of us stay home. |
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Dr Morbius (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 03:26 PM Response to Reply #40 |
42. But that's just it. |
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old mark (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-10-10 02:26 AM Response to Reply #42 |
63. If Democrats allow the GOP to gain more power despite their abysmal |
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FrenchieCat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 03:28 PM Response to Original message |
43. Thank Goodness I'm actively working against whatever Nate states, |
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deerheadgal (28 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 03:28 PM Response to Original message |
44. Well, then...let's all sit in the corner and cry... |
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Aramchek (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 04:03 PM Response to Original message |
47. not if the economy continues to improve |
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murdoch (658 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Apr-11-10 06:25 PM Response to Reply #47 |
83. yes, sort of |
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Fire1 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 04:20 PM Response to Original message |
49. Wrong. Nice try, though. n/t |
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Yavin4 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 04:22 PM Response to Original message |
50. The Republicans Are Going to Win Big This Nov. Because Our Corporate Overlords Wants Them To |
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backscatter712 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 04:45 PM Response to Original message |
51. My gut of truthiness says... |
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DuaneBidoux (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 05:19 PM Response to Original message |
55. I think the fact that anyone is considering any Republican shows how badly Dems have done. |
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ChiciB1 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 05:32 PM Response to Reply #55 |
57. He HAS Been Quite "Spot On" In The Past On Many, Many Issues!! |
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wisteria (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 05:25 PM Response to Original message |
56. I refuse to accept any polls as fact at this point. November is a long way off. n/t |
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depakid (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 05:56 PM Response to Reply #56 |
59. Wish I had a buck for every time I heard almost that exact statement in 1994 |
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Maraya1969 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 05:37 PM Response to Original message |
58. New message |
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Awsi Dooger (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-09-10 10:41 PM Response to Original message |
61. Well, it's going to be significantly worse than the current consensus |
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Grown2Hate (833 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-10-10 12:13 AM Response to Original message |
62. I think this is a WARNING, and a GOOD one. It should motivate us to work |
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LiberalFighter (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-10-10 06:27 AM Response to Original message |
65. I disagree Nate. We are not dealing anywheres near a full deck in the Republican Party. |
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MadHound (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-10-10 03:23 PM Response to Reply #65 |
66. Meanwhile, in the Democratic party, |
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backscatter712 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-10-10 03:28 PM Response to Original message |
67. BEAR IN MIND: This is a worst-case scenario, and Nate states that explicitly. |
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activa8tr (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-10-10 03:51 PM Response to Original message |
68. Some person writes a small statement on Twitter and we get a response like this on here? |
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BootinUp (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-10-10 06:14 PM Response to Original message |
70. I COULD get hit by lightning too. |
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polichick (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-10-10 06:14 PM Response to Original message |
71. "Not super likely" - okay, I'll go with that. nt |
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shotten99 (478 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Apr-11-10 12:33 PM Response to Original message |
80. I'd expect moderately heavy losses. |
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agentS (922 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Apr-11-10 10:36 PM Response to Original message |
84. I suspect a lot of the losses will be in the Blue Dog categories |
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Recovered Repug (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-12-10 06:21 AM Response to Reply #84 |
85. They would be the most likely seats lost. |
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and-justice-for-all (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-12-10 11:57 AM Response to Original message |
86. I do not see that happening... |
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ShortnFiery (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-12-10 12:01 PM Response to Reply #86 |
87. We are going full BORE right wing nut case crazy by 2012. |
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liberalpragmatist (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-12-10 12:14 PM Response to Original message |
88. Lots of things *COULD* happen |
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Hosnon (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-12-10 12:35 PM Response to Original message |
89. I don't think the detractors on this thread realize what being a statistician entails. |
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Change Happens (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-12-10 05:56 PM Response to Original message |
92. Ok, enough with this crap: I ONLY know and hang out with liberals, not a single |
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