KY-Sen: Conway Makes His Move in Dem Primary

[ccharles000]

SurveyUSA (4/9-11, likely voters, 3/1-3 in parens):

Rand Paul (R): 45 (42)
Trey Grayson (R): 30 (27)
Others: 6 (11)
Undecided: 19 (19)
(MoE: 4.7%)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 35 (45)
Jack Conway (D): 32 (27)
Others: 11 (9)
Undecided: 21 (19)
(MoE: 3.9%)

There's not much movement in the Republican Senate primary in the Bluegrass State, where Rand Paul is maintaining a 15-pt. lead over establishment choice Trey Grayson. That comes despite fundraising having trailed off significantly for Paul (maybe his supporters dug up all the bullion they could find hidden in their yards), but he seems to have already locked in enough TV advertising to keep his substantial edge over the next month.

The real movement is on the Democratic side, where AG Jack Conway, usually down double-digits to Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, is suddenly within 3. (Maybe the attacks on Mongiardo's first-class business travel hit their mark?) Weirdly, though, the crosstabs seem very odd: while Conway is perceived as more liberal than the pro-life Mongiardo, Conway leads among self-described conservative and pro-life Democrats while Dr. Dan is up among liberal and pro-choice Democrats. Two possible explanations from the digest's comments thread, both of which are very plausible, are that Mongiardo still has a lot of goodwill among liberals for almost taking down Jim Bunning in 2004, while Conway's day job as AG may win over lots of law-and-order types.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6732/kysen-conway-makes-his-move-in-dem-primary

[CherokeeDem]

1. I'm in Lexington, KY...

and I can agree with the explanation to a point; however, Mongiardo should have beaten Bunning..Bunning was out of his head during that campaign...he would make the most asinine statements, didn't show up for debates...it was appalling that he won. I have a feeling that my fellow liberals in the state are for "Dr. Dan" for three reasons: higher state-wide name recognition, locked up the vote in eastern KY...he should take that area if he is the nominee, and he almost beat Bunning. I am for Conway because he is articulate and very knowledgeable...went to an event where both men spoke on health care predominently...Mongiardo couldn't hold a candle to Conway. We have not even seen a Mongiardo ad here and Conway's ad are very good. Who knows...but we need to take back that seat.

[napi21]

2. is it really posible for a Dem to win in that red state? nt