New polls show toss-ups in gubernatorial races in three large, Republican-held states: Texas, California, and Florida. Even in a bad year, we could pick up some pretty big prizes.
A new Rasmussen poll released today shows incumbent Texas Governor Rick Perry (R) leading former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) by just four points, 48-44. The poll remains virtually unchanged from a month ago, when Perry led White 49-43.
What shocks me most about this poll, however, isn’t that White is within striking distance of beating Perry – it’s that Perry has a favorable rating of 59%. Governor Good Hair, he of the forced HPV vaccinations and unwanted freeway, the same one who was re-elected with just 39% of the vote in 2006 and has since struggled to get back to 50%. And yet despite that astonishing 59% approval rating, he can’t crack 50 in the polls and leads White by just four points. It helps that White is such an excellent challenger, known for his remarkable handling of Hurricane Katrina and his ability to please virtually everyone while Mayor of Houston.
California is another possible flip – an online poll from the Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal showed last week that Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman 44-43. This is in line with the Real Clear Politics average, which gives Whitman a 43-42 lead (with no polls in April). An online survey usually isn’t anything notable, but it’s the first anything out of California in several weeks and it does say the same thing as other polls.
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