Thie Wash-Post Poll is discussed here...
Post-ABC poll indicators suggest possible political climate changeBy Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 10:03 AM
The most intriguing findings in the Washington Post-ABC News poll published Wednesday are the barest hints of a possible upturn for the Democrats. They suggest that, while the political climate remains tilted strongly in the direction of the Republicans, the next months will be crucial in shaping what ultimately happens in November.
The Post-ABC survey found no dramatic changes in the overall atmosphere. For that reason, Republicans are understandably bullish about the midterm elections. Americans are disgruntled and worried, they've had it with incumbents, they remain deeply divided over the new health-care law. President Obama's approval rating hasn't moved notably in months.
So from 35,000 feet, this is still an election that shapes up as a referendum on the president and his party at a time when many voters are unhappy with the state of the country and the economy. Passionate feelings and discontent are strongly on the side of the opposition, not the party in power. In midterm elections, that counts considerably. No wonder Republicans believe a takeover of the House is possible.
But closer to the ground, there are some indicators that something less seismic might occur. They include signs that Democratic rank-and-file may be feeling better about things, which could result in more energy in the base than has existed for much of the last six months. At the same time, it's clear that many people are not fully sold on the Republicans and are continuing to assess the two parties. Finally, there is some evidence that Obama has learned some lessons from a difficult first year.
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For his part, Obama appears to be warming to a battle with the opposition. His moment of truth came after the Massachusetts election, when he was faced with the question of whether to scale back on health care in hopes of attracting Republican votes and assuring passage of at least something, or going for broke in a partisan brawl. He chose to fight. Since then, the president has appeared more comfortable with a posture of confrontation, when necessary, than he was when he first took office.
In the Post-ABC poll, there were a handful of indicators that, if sustained, could change the political climate--but only if the Democrats can find a way to keep them going.
One was that independents, for the first time since last fall, gave Obama a positive rating on his job performance. If that turns out to be more than a one-month blip, it could be significant, given the fact that independents moved sharply away from the Democrats over the first year of the administration. They aren't going to re-embrace Democrats with the enthusiasm of 2008 or 2006, but if some of them move back, that could save a few Democratic incumbents in November.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/28/AR2010042801910.html