"Post-ABC poll indicators suggest possible political climate change"

[Clio the Leo]

In other words we STILL "have a righteous wind at our backs..."

Thie Wash-Post Poll is discussed here...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x280609

Post-ABC poll indicators suggest possible political climate change

By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 10:03 AM
The most intriguing findings in the Washington Post-ABC News poll published Wednesday are the barest hints of a possible upturn for the Democrats. They suggest that, while the political climate remains tilted strongly in the direction of the Republicans, the next months will be crucial in shaping what ultimately happens in November.

The Post-ABC survey found no dramatic changes in the overall atmosphere. For that reason, Republicans are understandably bullish about the midterm elections. Americans are disgruntled and worried, they've had it with incumbents, they remain deeply divided over the new health-care law. President Obama's approval rating hasn't moved notably in months.

So from 35,000 feet, this is still an election that shapes up as a referendum on the president and his party at a time when many voters are unhappy with the state of the country and the economy. Passionate feelings and discontent are strongly on the side of the opposition, not the party in power. In midterm elections, that counts considerably. No wonder Republicans believe a takeover of the House is possible.

But closer to the ground, there are some indicators that something less seismic might occur. They include signs that Democratic rank-and-file may be feeling better about things, which could result in more energy in the base than has existed for much of the last six months. At the same time, it's clear that many people are not fully sold on the Republicans and are continuing to assess the two parties. Finally, there is some evidence that Obama has learned some lessons from a difficult first year.

<snip>

For his part, Obama appears to be warming to a battle with the opposition. His moment of truth came after the Massachusetts election, when he was faced with the question of whether to scale back on health care in hopes of attracting Republican votes and assuring passage of at least something, or going for broke in a partisan brawl. He chose to fight. Since then, the president has appeared more comfortable with a posture of confrontation, when necessary, than he was when he first took office.

In the Post-ABC poll, there were a handful of indicators that, if sustained, could change the political climate--but only if the Democrats can find a way to keep them going.

One was that independents, for the first time since last fall, gave Obama a positive rating on his job performance. If that turns out to be more than a one-month blip, it could be significant, given the fact that independents moved sharply away from the Democrats over the first year of the administration. They aren't going to re-embrace Democrats with the enthusiasm of 2008 or 2006, but if some of them move back, that could save a few Democratic incumbents in November.

more...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/28/AR2010042801910.html

[Rosa Luxemburg]

1. I wonder how voters feel about Republicans being on the side of the big corporations?

[flpoljunkie]

2. Apparently their base doesn't realize they're being manipulated by 'big bidness' water carriers.

[derby378]

3. So far, it's been the same with Democrats...

...but if they can get some real financial reform past the GOP beaver dam, maybe that perception will start to change.

[greencharlie]

8. don't be gullible...

every damn politician, from the top to the bottom suckle at the breast of corporate America. There IS NO "clean politician". From Obama and his million dollar GS donations to the Repugs and their dirty money. The whole system is broken.

[Perky]

4. GOP peaked waaaaay too early and it will prove difficult to sustain their momentum for 6 Months

[Go2Peace]

19. Why is it that folks still don't get it. The president started taking more progressive stands

He learned that listening to the "popular wisdom" being whispered in his ears by wealthy DLC types almost drove him into unrecoverable territory.

It was when he started throwing caution to the wind and moving forward more progressive ideas that the winds started moving toward his back.

Time will tell if he is truly committed to more progressive change. If he continues and accellerates a progressive vision after the election is over he could lead a political revival.

People want serious and fundamental change, even if many of them don't know what it means until a strong and principled leader shows them.

[Dr Morbius]

22. I disagree.

The President came into office wanting to provide passive, stable leadership. In the last year, at some point, he came to understand that the nation needs active leadership, and this is no time for being passive. Once Obama became more aggressive, his successes started. It's simply a matter of being on offense.

Barack Obama has learned a vital lesson, one which all great Presidents learn and lesser Presidents don't learn. And it is this: you don't get to be the President you wanted to be. You've got to be the President the country needs right now. Right now, America needs a President who kicks ass and takes numbers. I don't think it has anything to do with being more left or more progressive. It's active versus passive leadership.

[Go2Peace]

26. We will see, the President was still loosing momentum when he was "debating" and firing off

when he had that meeting with the GOP over healthcare? Still lost momentum. It wasn't enough. It was when he stopped doing that dance he changed his approach. His and the party's approach has changed quite a bit since then. Previously a lot of his proposals and initiatives were appearing watered down and he was centering most of his policy statements. He has been sending out a significant stream of small, but more progressive, policy changes since then. And it is obvious that he has been instructing the heads of his agencies to be bolder about the work they are doing, and there is significant testing of the waters involving cracking down on the fraudsters with potential indictments in recent weeks. Those are substantial changes in approach to policy rhetoric and movement toward a more populist and progressive message. He needs to continue and strengthen those changes.

[TlalocW]

5. The media for whatever reason

Just ignoring all the problems republicans are having and are trying to convince us that 2010 is going to be a clean sweep by republicans. Yet, the GOP is said to be in disarray; Obama and the democrats kicked their asses on health care and are starting to do the same on financial reform; the democrats have more money on hand for the elections; while congress is unpopular with the American people right now it's always someone else's congressperson that's the problem, not "my" guy fighting for me and my state/district, etc.

I'm not saying there won't be a few gains by the repubs - it's the nature of the game, but it won't be a blow-out (not that it won't be reported as such).

And the only reasons I can think why they're doing this are:
1. Controlled by the GOP so they have to say the election is going to break for the republicans
2. Just want a good fight

TlalocW

[FrenchieCat]

12. You are correct in your assessment of the media; they are rooting for the GOP,

which is why all of their articles and pundit talks continueously say that
Republicans are gonna win a whole lot in November. They figure if they
repeat it over and over again, not only will people believe it, they will
vote accordingly. It is a shame that our media is in cahoots with the GOP,
but they obviously are. :(

[SwampG8r]

13. yup

i used to be able to tell myself the media just likse controversy so they have something to talk about and secure their jobs
but i have to conclude now that they are no longer stopping at the line and are participating in advocacy reporting

its past time to enable the fcc to untangle this corporate shell game

[pundaint]

6. It looks like it's wide open for any party willing to forward the People's interests.

The party doesn't matter if the corporations get to write the legislation, and pick the candidates. The Progressive talkers in Congress still haven't delivered anything or even maintained a tough stand through an actual vote.

There isn't an incumbent who has proven worthy of contract renewal that I can see.`We're giving these guys an excellent pay and benefits package, lots of office support, and we should be getting something back. I'm not seeing value coming back, and I'm shopping for new representation. If you like war, erosion of civil rights, legislation by corporations, lack of protection for American workers, or consumers then rehire the legislators from your district and state who gave their support to these things.

Your vote for them is an affirmation of where they've led us.

[Go2Peace]

20. Exactly. Hopefully Obama and our Dem. Reps are beginning to understand that

If they move to more traditional progressive Democratic Party values there will be some fights to be made, but it is the path that will ultimately win over the largest majority of people.

[opihimoimoi]

7. One by one...the GOP Boys/Girls have betrayed whats best for America

Voting as a means to BLOC STALL OBSTRUCT....means they should be DEFEATED as a BLOC.....they showing negative signs toward solving for whats best for America/Planet...

Their Partisan Antics have revealed utter disregard for the Common Good and an embracement of selfishness and Negativism....

They have ruined their Brand Name to the point of EXPULSION

THE GOP MUST BE DEFEATED as a BLOC

If they vote as a BLOC....the Polarity is exposed as a Negative...not good for any system much less the National System at hand

[Colonel Bat Guano]

11. 1998

I remember when conventional wisdom of most pundits in 1998 was that it would be a blowout year in favor of Republicans. The arguments involved the historical one, that it was an offyear election with a Democrat in the White House, but also heavily featured the idea that the public at large was disgusted with Clinton's behavior and would punish Congressional Dems as a result.

Instead, it seemed that people were more disgusted with the way Republicans handled the impeachment, their 1994 lead dwindled instead of grew (I remember at one point on election eve, it actually looked like Dems would recapture the House), and it turned out to be an unexpectedly good night for Democrats. That was some good television there...I thought Dick Armey was going to throw up on live television.

I'm telling you, this year reminds me more of 1998 than 1994. I think it's more likely for people to react against Republican overreaching, which is getting worse, than to encourage more of the same. I'm expecting Dem majorities to hold at least, and I won't be surprised if they even expand. The uproar and division over the Arizona law, the Republican blockage of financial reform, and the Dems finally deciding to fact check Republican lies make me even more confident in this trend.

[opihimoimoi]

14. I concur...the Pubs have messed up their brand name no end...what with their fam values thingy

blowing up their collective asses and backing up the Banking Industry...

They gonna get their asses handed to the Anal Trimmer for cutbacks in Ignorance.....

Get them Probes wired

We gonna needum real bad

[Go2Peace]

21. Yes, but if you notice, the tactic get's really unstable when we provide a sharp contrast

that is the key. Obama stopped playing the game of trying to appeal to the public by playing middleman and has started to come out with some progressive policies and the contrast is beginning to shine a brighter light against the Republican's games.

Notice that hardly a protest has happened each time the Democrats float out some test balloons that they might go after indictments for the bank fraudsters? 2 months ago all the clever wisdom beltway advisors were fighting tooth and nail claiming that people would go ape if Obama tries to charge anyone. Now they are starting to realize that standing solid and populist actually might have dividends.

It is that contrast that made the Republicans back down today. Because people want serious and fundamental change. If the Democrats really start pouring that on they gain all of the momentum.

[opihimoimoi]

23. The GOP has an IMPOSSIBLE TASK....To REGAIN CREDIBILITY n RESPECT

Both Missing in their present mode appeal to the gen public

They stand to lose big time this Nov

[Go2Peace]

25. There is a highly vulnerable group of people. We have to lead and take stands.

I don't believe we have it sewn up by any means. We go back to the more corporate center approach we did last year and we lose. We stay where we are and I think we lose. We have the Republicans off balance for a little bit. But they have the best marketers in the business and a largely confused populace. No way is this ours without serious performance and continuing to show we mean business when we talk about change.

[opihimoimoi]

27. The ongoing results of Obamaism is showing much Promise to convince

the gen public of its intent of the COMMON GOOD....

The GOPs trend has been that of nit picking and whining besides making fools of themselves by obstructing the wheels of Gov't.....even it means hurting the COMMON GOOD

thus revealing their Bullyesque ways....

They got a tough row to hoe given too many negative distractions within the GOP Party and individual members....their creds are shot.

[Cosmocat]

9. Even this stupid article ...

advances the dems in trouble meme ...

it is a mid term after the second straight national election where Dems made MAJOR gains ... Their majorities are the greatest in decades ... But, all we hear is how much trouble they are in ...

There is definitely going to be some drawback on their margins, but it just is the norm after windfall presidential elections ...

Rs had marginal majorities in both chambers and all we heard was a burgeoning "permanent republican majority ..."

[Beetwasher]

10. Yup, The Bias Has Never Been More Evident

n/t

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

15. On what date were the party preference numbers in favor of the Republicans?

Never.

Not Once.

Fucking mainstream media. They make up shit from whole cloth just to sell their story line, and then disconver "CHANGE" that is nothing more than the reality as it was all along.

Hey, Washington Post! You a big reason why print media is dying!

[DailyGrind51]

16. Hispanic-Americans will probably determine a lot of district contests.

[newtothegame]

17. What is with these pictures we post?

Are these like the "Obama in sunglasses" pictures that dominated DU in Summer 2008? :shrug:

[Dr Morbius]

18. Several points to ponder, here.

1. Successful political parties keep their offense on the field. This is new for the Democratic party. I like it.

2. The media has a vested interest in seeing close elections. If the election will be close, conventional wisdom holds there will be more public interest in the news, and that means better ratings. Better ratings leads to more income, and therefore the media is financially motivated to kind of support whoever's losing in the polls.

3. Because of #2, the media is also interested in telling us the election will be close, whether it is actually expected to be or not. Because if you say it often enough, people believe it, however outrageous.

4. Conventional wisdom also holds that there is more public interest in government when power changes hands. More interest leads to better ratings which leads to more money. The media would absolutely love it if the GOP makes gains. The media won't like it much if the Democrats solidify their majorities. Then they have to go on and on about some missing woman in Aruba, or maybe return to the story of the child pageant queen.

5. There's such a long time between now and the election, and the memory of the public is so short, that when the story says the next few months will be crucial, they're stating the obvious. The real question before us is this one: do WE want the Democrats to win in November, or will our dissatisfaction work to the advantage of the GOP?

[awoke_in_2003]

24. i may disagree with him sometimes...

but I am still proud that I got to vote for him.