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My assessment on Obama's Afghan War speech is that it really is a clean-up operation in disguise

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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:20 AM
Original message
My assessment on Obama's Afghan War speech is that it really is a clean-up operation in disguise
Edited on Wed Dec-02-09 12:44 AM by zulchzulu
I know it may seem counter-intuitive to some regarding how Obama sending an addition 30,000 (+/-) troops to Afghanistan somehow leads to the strategy actually being a clean-up operation.

Here's what I think is happening.

Obama does not trust Karzai. Despite polite appearances that the Karzai government gets a wink and a nod, there is going to be someone else (and not Karzai) running the show:

The US is seeking to extend its control over the day-to-day running of Afghanistan with the appointment of an international "high representative" in Kabul in an attempt to bypass Hamid Karzai's much-criticised government.

The initiative, being pushed by the US special envoy, Richard Holbrooke, has caused a split between Washington and its closest Nato allies, who believe it could further undermine the Afghan president's legitimacy and the United Nations' role in the country.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/30/aghanistan-karzai-obama-united-nations


That is a very smart move. Karzai and his administration are perhaps the most corrupt in the World. And slapping Karzai down will shake him up and perhaps even get him sloppy enough to actually end his career like his father did...

Obama does not trust General Stanley McChrystal. McChrystal was adamant about getting more than 40,000 troops deployed and made it known while in London. This was the equivalent of shooting across the bow of Obama's administration. McChrystal was probably not for a withdrawal timeline, so this adds more to the strategy:

Reflecting the increased sense of urgency, Obama is to speed deployment of an extra 30,000 American troops to Afghanistan within the next six months – a much faster timetable than the 12 to 18 months that had been briefed by US officials up until today.

The 30,000 figure is lower than requested by the US commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, but the Obama administration is hoping that other Nato countries will make up the difference. A senior administration official said the Nato secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, will announce the deployment of extra troops on Friday.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/01/barack-obama-speech-afghanistan-war


Even the Drudge Report (sorry, no link...) is broadcasting that it's a "final push". The usual chickenhawk and neocon suspects are pissed about ANY withdrawal timeline and are pulling out the dusty old card that we need to "use overwhelming force to win", but they are marginalized when asked who the hell is going to pay for an endless war when the GOP diatribe is to whine about "extra spending".

Training the Afghan soldier has been very trying, let alone a rather pointless charade. It is well documented that most of the Afghan soldiers that openly side with American troops and risk getting killed by Taliban soldiers get blitzed on weed, opium and other drugs in the morning, the afternoon, the evening and whenever else they want. Watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc8w0IX4UQ

Perhaps seeing just how effective Afghan troops are can look at this story, which came out months ago but certainly is yet another example of just how untrustworthy the Afghans are:

The Pentagon has failed to track an estimated 87,000 weapons given to Afghan security forces, one-third of the 242,000 shipped by the US government between December 2004 and June 2008, the Government Accountability Office said.

A 46-page report by the GAO, the non-partisan investigative arm of Congress, said there had been no monitoring of a further 135,000 weapons donated by NATO allies to the poorly paid and corruption-rife Afghan army and police.

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/02/12-8


The fairly quick timeline to withdraw should be enough of a clue that Obama wants to get out of the occupation. The generals will get more troops, but they will only have 18 months to try to change what is essentially a narco-kleptocracy out of control and a Pakistani government that takes billions to get Al Qaeda and have done nothing... for years.

Getting NATO in there in a wider role and perhaps getting more allies to ramp up some support is making the conflict a more international effort. While some are wringing their hands that Obama is demanding a 18-month withdrawal timeline, they have to understand that the war there is not worth the cost in treasure if they are being honest.

Time will tell on this and I would suggest we make sure that the withdrawal timelines are kept. Obama made it clear he wants to rebuild our country in his final statements in the speech. Let's hold him to that.








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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:20 AM
Response to Original message
1. One toke over the line
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:35 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. I couldn't imagine...
...being some Afghan dude who is looking at a bunch of soldiers who look like Star Wars characters who are trying to use an interpreter who doesn't even speak the same dialect of Nuristani... and you're blitzed on some wacky mix of opium and ganja... and they want you to start running out in some field in a sandstorm while shooting an AK-47...

... time for another nap in the 120 degree heat...

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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:21 AM
Response to Original message
2. Yep, the Taliban is going to clean our clock
and we will go the way of other empires.
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impik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 02:15 AM
Response to Reply #2
17. Man, I never saw anyone thrives on pessimism and negativity more than you
I can actually predict your posts, and i'm not even that old here.
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dionysus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 09:53 AM
Response to Reply #2
26. you really would like that, i can tell.
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Davis_X_Machina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:23 AM
Response to Original message
3. This is not the last time this kind of problem will come up...
...and eventually a workable solution must be found. The fact that we cannot be the world's policeman doesn't mean there is no 'crime'.

We're ad-hoc-ing something that needs to be settled permanently, multilaterally, by the world community, for the sake of the peace of our shared planet and the safety of its inhabitants.

As long as there are nation-states, there's going to be continuing real need for a formal international process of receiver-in-possession for failed nation-states. They're a nuisance to their neighbors and often a hellhole for the people who live there.

NATO and the US big-footing around is not the answer to the problem, but that's not the same thing as saying there is no problem. And waiting for the inevitable withering away of the state isn't a very effective solution, either.

This is something the nations of the world are going to have to grasp the nettle on sooner or later, with all its problems of sovereignty, 'interference in purely internal matters', etc.
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scubadude Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:29 AM
Response to Original message
4. You miss one huge factor, in Afghanistanistan is ruled by tribes...
not a centralized government. The government is powerless outside of a small radius of the Capitol and major cities.

Ruling Afghanistan is like trying to catch smoke with a net.

Scuba
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:40 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. I'm well aware of the tribal nature of Afghanistan. Pashtuns fight Wardak, Jaji, Tani, Jadran...
There are villages just miles from each other where completely different languages are spoken and they have lived there for centuries.

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mullard12ax7 Donating Member (500 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:39 AM
Response to Original message
6. We are a corrupt country, what in the hell makes anyone think we'll clean up someone else?
We are not capable of holding the worst war criminals in our history responsible for anything: torture camps, outing CIA agents, conspiracy to commit war, passive genocide in Iraq by creating and enforcing the environment of sectarian slaughter.

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BP2 Donating Member (406 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:45 AM
Response to Original message
8.  a clean-up operation in disguise
Adding another 30,000 troops for a "clean-up operation" is a horrible solution
to this conflict, that will only lead to thousands of more children dying needlessly.



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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:51 AM
Response to Reply #8
13. Are you suggesting more troops are needed to protect children?
We can talk about human rights in Afghanistan all day... human rights in the Congo all day... human rights in Saudi Arabia all day... human rights in China all day...

It goes on and on...

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VMI Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:46 AM
Response to Original message
9. A validation of the Bush Doctrine.
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:49 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. lol
ssdp
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:55 AM
Response to Reply #9
14. Actually mopping up the mess left behind from the Bush Doctrine...
:hi:
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:48 AM
Response to Original message
10. I thought I was an optimist
I want to believe this is true, but I'm a cynical optimist ;)
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NYC_SKP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:49 AM
Response to Original message
12. K and R and your new improved sigline pic made me pee myself.
Scary skull thingy goin on!
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Clio the Leo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 12:59 AM
Response to Original message
15. I could be wrong but......
... I think he feels now he has (and will have) the political capitol to keep to his time lines regardless of whether or not the mission is deemed a "success."

He'll be able to say "we tried but we cannot continue to wallow in an effort that continues to drain our resources and lives...." and the only people who'd be upset with that decision would be the the right who wouldn't vote for him anyway.

I mean OBVIOUSLY he wants to "succeed" but I think that even if he doesn't "succeed" he knows that, as long as he gets out when he said he would, he can survive it fairly unscathed.

But then again, another part of me says that Barack Obama doesn't do things for political expediency, he does things because he thinks they're the right things to do. Multiple sources describe this as being a major motivation in his Presidential campaign. He's doing this because he thinks it is the proper thing to do and his strategy is one that will "succeed."

I think the truth, as always, lies somewhere in the middle.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 01:32 AM
Response to Original message
16. Thanks for your analysis, zulch..I appreciate
the research that went into this.
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kenny blankenship Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 02:29 AM
Response to Original message
18. I'm getting an error message from youtube from the link on training Afghan soldiers
Edited on Wed Dec-02-09 02:37 AM by kenny blankenship
"The URL contained a malformed video ID."
What is the title of the video so I can search for it? Thanks.
Is it the same as this one?
Afghan Soldiers Smoke Weed in the Middle of a Gun Fight
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZM29Zp8UW4
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 09:31 AM
Response to Reply #18
24. Lots of video here showing the stoned-out, hapless Afghan soldiers...
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Hekate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 02:09 PM
Response to Reply #24
28. That's just sick. "What's their motivation?"is a very good question.Would they defend their village?
Maybe they would, although the Afghan officer seems to think their "type" were delinquents tossed out of town with nowhere to go but the army. Do they think beyond their tribe or their village? Maybe they don't.

I'd need to know more, but this is pretty disturbing. Our guys come off as very professional by contrast.

Hekate



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cherokeeprogressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 02:34 AM
Response to Original message
19. So you're thinking that President Obama lied to us. Or at least "disguised" his intent.
Edited on Wed Dec-02-09 02:45 AM by cherokeeprogressive
I'm afraid if that were true, he'd never again have my support in anything at all.

I expect my President to tell me the STRAIGHT UP FUCKING TRUTH. If I don't get that from him, he'll never again get my vote. Plain and simple.

Hey Mr. President? Tell me the FUCKING TRUTH with NO AMBIGUITY. Else? Step aside and let me vote for someone from my party WHO WILL.

What a fucking strange spin.

I'll bet he's lieing to us, but for our own good!

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Hekate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 02:52 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. I didn't get that from Zulchzulu's post, nor did I feel Obama was lying to us....
With Bush, I always felt the lie. Of course I never trusted him for a moment, either.

What I got out of Zulchzulu's analysis of Obama's speech tonight was that the President was telling the truth but that there are ways and ways to interpret that truth.

In addition, I don't think any leader (whether President or the city mayor or the chief of police) tells everyone everything all at once. No leader will tell everyone all of his inner thoughts or strategies.

It's all ambiguity out there, cp.

Hekate

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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 02:57 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. With a crisis situation like
this..why would we be told every little detail right away? I wouldn't expect to be.

Thinks are always held back like you say with the Chief of Police or whomever..it's their job not to reveal everything.
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cherokeeprogressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 03:17 AM
Response to Reply #20
22. "Misinformation" was a policy of the bush administration, and when it was announced, DU wasn't happy
I can't be unhappy about it in one instance, and happy in another just because the players have changed.
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Hekate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 03:26 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. Did I say misinformation? Did Zulch? No. I said what I said. Sorry you don't get it....
Doesn't mean I'm happy that Bush left such a gawdawful stinking mess over there and handed it off to President Obama.

Hekate

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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 11:25 PM
Response to Reply #19
30. Damn....
My intent on using the phrase "in disguise" essentially throws off those that think that the policy is merely "more Bush" or "an endless war" or the incredibly inept "escalation"...

I can't emphasize more that the clear intent and PLAN to withdraw starting in 2010 is completely in line with what a military decision would be to "mop up" the mess.

Don't respond to this unless you can offer a solution that is realistic and back it up with clear timelines that would actually work. Hell, forget it. Just put me on Ignore. I hate wasting my time on people who clearly want to throw bumpersticker claptrap at political solutions.
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 09:37 AM
Response to Original message
25. That doesn't make sense. The quickest way to stabilize a system involving 2 undesirable factions...
is not to try to create a third. There is no way that Karzai is replaced and the troops come back in 18 months. If this is attempted, look for Obama to justify keeping the troops in longer.
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #25
27. You have to start somewhere and this decision puts in a timeline without many benchmarks
Why no benchmarks or hardly any for the Afghan troops/police/mafia/drug dealers/kleptomaniacs?

Because they proved they are incompetent, drugged-out, religious zombies who are corrupt to the core.

Obama clearly stated we are withdrawing. What the hell else do you want him to say?
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HopeOverFear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-02-09 02:22 PM
Response to Original message
29. God I wish I were a fly on the wall for the meetings between Obama
and McChrystal. I really do. I'll bet two those duke it out on the regular.
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