WI-Gov: Total Tossup

[ccharles000]

PPP (pdf) (11/20-22, likely voters):

Tom Barrett (D): 46
Tommy Thompson (R): 41
Undecided: 13

Tom Barrett (D): 40
Scott Walker (R): 40
Undecided: 20

Tom Barrett (D): 41
Mark Neumann (R): 39
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±3.5%)

PPP takes its first look at Wisconsin's governor's race since the retirement of incumbent Dem Jim Doyle, the entry and then exit of Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, and now the candidacy of ex-Rep., current Milwaukee mayor, and 2002 gubernatorial primary loser Tom Barrett. (They did previously poll on Doyle, finding him losing to two Republicans.) They find close races for Barrett against both Republicans who are definitely in the race, Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker and long-ago ex-Rep. Mark Neumann (with the slightly less conservative Walker performing only slightly better, even though Walker's 30/25 favorables certainly beat Neumann's 16/27 -- Barrett, meanwhile, is at 31/21). The only previous poll that has tested a Barrett in a general election matchup was a Walker internal, which posted similar numbers: a late August poll giving Walker a 44-43 lead.

The fear for many Dems was that once-popular ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson might take a cue from Iowa's Terry Branstad and make a play for a fifth term. Between this and his Senate poll numbers from this same sample, though, it looks like he might want to start thinking harder about that mayoral job in Elroy instead. Thompson underperforms the other two Republicans; that, plus his 38/45 favorables, suggest there may be some element of "been there, done that" to his potential candidacy.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5970/wigov-total-tossup

[NYC Democrat]

1. well it seems like Wisconsin's odd love affair with Tommy Thompson might be over.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

2. Attention Cheeseheads!

Work like hell for Tom Barrett. Thompson Redux or (God Forbid) a Scott Walker Administration would be a complete friggin' disaster. We CANNOT lose this election.