How I see the Governors Races this year

[WI_DEM]

I believe republicans will pick up democratic governorships in:
Kansas
Michigan
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Iowa
Wisconsin
Wyoming
GOP: +8

I believe Democrats will pick up GOP governorships in:
Connecticut
Hawaii
Minnesota
California
Dem: +4

combine, GOP +4

Now the toss-ups and what party currently holds those seats are in ( )
Rhode Island (R)
Vermont (R)
Florida (R)
Georgia (R)
Texas (R)
Illinois (D)
Ohio (D)

So GOP holds 5 toss-ups and Dems 2.

If I were making prediction I would say that Democats will win in Vermont, Texas and Ohio. Independent (Pell) will win Rhode Island. GA & IL will go GOP--and I honestly don't know how FL will go.

In the end I think the GOP will have a net gain of 2-3 Governorships. But Dems will get bragging rights if they win California and Texas (especially with redistricting) and FL if Sink wins there.

[Lochloosa]

1. I think Sink (D) will take FL after Scott buys the Repug nomination.

The repugs are Killing each other for the nomination. Scott has been ruthless.

Once he has the nom and people realize they could have a crook as Gov, Sink will grab it.

She is already leading and has not spent a dime that I've seen.

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/07/21/democrat-alex-sink-slips-past-battling-republicans-in-florida-go/

Now, Sink leads McCollum 37 percent to 23 percent. Lawton "Bud" Chiles, son of the late Florida Democratic icon Lawton Chiles, who served as senator and governor, draws 14 percent as an independent. Twenty-six percent are undecided.

If Scott, who has put more than $20 million so far into his campaign, is the GOP nominee, Sink leads him 36 percent to 30 percent, with 12 percent for Chiles and 22 percent undecided.

[RT Atlanta]

2. GA hopefully goes "D"

If Roy learned the lessons from his last effort, and with Handel and Deal (Mr. Ethically-challenged http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/29/nathan-deal-ethics-report_n_517493.html) butting heads, he should have a good message to advocate to the voters of our state.

HOWEVER, the challenge in GA is that the republicans have to be commended for their efforts in "taking over" the state over the last 8 years and Barnes is facing what I believe is an uphill (although not too steep) battle.

[DFW]

3. Here in Texas (I just got in ), we are all aflame about getting Bill White elected.

But no one's overly optimistic. The deck is still stacked against us, no matter how horrible Perrybush has been.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

4. Maryland looks tight

Abaramoff's pal Erhlich (R) is just behind O'Malley (D)

[bigwillq]

5. I think you're right about CT

I am hoping Ned Lamont wins. Primary next week. The other major DEM is Dan Malloy. Polling (if you believe them) has Lamont winning. Both are decent candidates, though.

[1620rock]

6. I hope you are wrong about Michigan.

[dtotire]

7. You are correct--they are both decent candidates n/t

[Jennicut]

8. Lamont and Malloy both look like they could beat whomever the Repub is, probably Foley.

I think Lamont will win the primary. I am being bombarded with stuff from his campaign in the mail.

[bigwillq]

10. I am so sick of the campaigning

Mailings and phone calls and ads on TV. And this is only for the primaries! Imagine what it'll be like for the GE. ugh.

[blue_onyx]

9. I'm not so about your Michigan prediction

All the Republican candidates are pretty weak. I consider it a toss-up right now. I think we need to wait to see who the nominees are before it's clear which way the election is leaning.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

11. I think Roy Barnes will win in Georgia. People still remember him as a highly

popular and effective governor. The only reason why he lost to Sonny Purdue was because of the confederate flag issue. Many people are angry with the Republicans in Georgia for laying off teachers and other workers, and for raising state and property taxes.

[old mark]

12. I believe the Dems will win in PA - the republican candidate is a real crook,

and I think it will be tight, but he will lose.


mark