New Pew Research Poll: Obama 47/41 approval (90% approval among liberals)dems lead '10 ballot 45/44

[WI_DEM]

Pew Research Center
7/21-8/5/10; 3,003 adults, 2.5% margin of error
2,431 registered voters, 2.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Pew release)

National

Obama Job Approval
47% Approve, 41% Disapprove (chart)
Reps: 14 / 78 (chart)
Dems: 79 / 13 (chart)
Inds: 42 / 43 (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot (registered voters)
45% Democrat, 44% Republican (chart)

What will make the biggest difference in how you vote for Congress in your district - national issues, local or state issues, the candidate's political party, or the candidate's character and experience?
36% National issues
29% Local/state issues
5% Political party
22% Character/experience

Party ID
33% Democrat, 26% Republican, 34% independent (chart)

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_national_survey_pew_72185.php

Here is a breakdown demographically of Obama's approval/disapproval:
Obama Job Rating
Approve
Disapprove
DK
% %
All 47 41 12=100
Republican 14 78 8=100
Conservative Rep 9 84 7=100
Mod/Liberal Rep 22 70 9=100
Democrat 79 13 8=100
Cons/Mod Dem 74 16 10=100
Liberal Dem 90 7 3=100
Independent 42 43 15=100
Lean Rep 20 69 11=100
Lean Dem 67 22 12=100
Men 43 45 12=100
Women 50 39 11=100
18-29 54 31 15=100
30-49 47 42 11=100
50-64 46 44 11=100
65+ 40 50 10=100
White, non-Hispanic 38 49 12=100
Black, non-Hispanic 89 4 8=100
Hispanic 56 34 10=100
College graduate 49 43 9=100
Some college 45 44 10=100
High school or less 46 39 15=100

President Obama’s job approval rating stands
at 47%, a number that has changed very little
all year; 41% currently disapprove of his
performance in office.
The stability in Obama’s ratings for the past
several months is evident not just among the
public overall, but among most subgroups in
the population. His core supporters continue
to give him high ratings, including Democrats
(79% approval) and African Americans (89%).
He gets nearly unanimous approval from
liberal Democrats (90%).
Even among groups with more mixed
opinions, there has been little evidence of a
trend for the past several months.
Independents remain divided (42% approve,
43% disapprove), while a plurality of whites
continue to disapprove (49%, vs. 38% who
approve).
http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/643.pdf

[bluestateguy]

1. Honestly, with all the shit going on right now. I'll take it.

He has a surprising 14% GOP approval, and should be focused upon getting back in the good graces of the 13% of Democrats who say they disapprove.

[WI_DEM]

2. I agree.

[Pirate Smile]

3. Where do those 13% sit on the spectrum? Last I had seen it was self-identified Conservative

Democrats (mostly), not liberals who said they disapproved.

[CTLawGuy]

4. liberal dems: 90 Approve, 7 disapprove

watch out, those 7%ers are going to take Obama down in '12!!!!! :rofl:

[30rock]

5. So why was Gibbs so exasperated?

This proves how over-the-top Gibbs' statements were.

[CTLawGuy]

7. you don't have to be numerous

to be loud and obnoxious and irritating to others.

[FrenchieCat]

10. Kind of like the Tea Parties folks......

Seems like the louder and the more against this administration
the greater chance you will be heard and then manipulated
via the hands of the corporate news who really don't give a fuck
who approves or disapproves, cause once they are finished,
they hope everyone disaproves.

[CTLawGuy]

15. right on!

NT

[geek tragedy]

8. He should stop reading blogs. nt

[Pirate Smile]

9. He said he watches too much cable news.

[book_worm]

18. Gibb wasn't talking about liberal democrats. He was talking about the far left types that helped

Bush win in 2000 by voting for Nader--because they didn't see any difference between Bush and Gore. He talking about the purity left.

[Jennicut]

11. Ha! And all 7% of them are on DU!

By the way, did you vote today? I voted for Lamont in the primary, though I like Malloy as well.

[CTLawGuy]

12. i did

Lamont, Glassman, Merrill & Lembo

[Jennicut]

16. I did the same.

[jpak]

6. This can't be right - Obama is at war with us

or so we're told

[Number23]

14. lol And his support amongst liberals is a bit higher than his support from black folks!

MAN that has got to be making some people's heads pop and pants soaked. :rofl: :rofl:

[Imajika]

13. These are pretty respectable numbers considering...

...what the country is going through. The fact that the President holds around 45-50% under these conditions is really very good.

The more worrying numbers are:

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot (registered voters)
45% Democrat, 44% Republican (chart)

If the split is almost even as is, and the GOP is more motivated to turn out, well, it won't be pretty.

We have 255 seats or so, and they have around 178. Just a vote split of 45 D, 44 R might indicate fairly big gains for Republicans since we have so many more seats right now. But if they are really more motivated to go to the polls as may be the case, control of the House could be in play.

Either way, 3 months out and the President going into campaign mode, I am pretty happy with these numbers. Unless something horrible happens, it may be uphill from here. We are going to lose some seats, no way around it - but if we can keep the losses to around 20-25 in the House and continue control of the Senate we would be in good shape heading into 2012.

[Number23]

17. Gee, this thread is dropping faster than a fat man without a parachute

I wonder why??? :shrug:
:rofl: :rofl:

[depakid]

19. You go on believing that

I'll sit back and watch the dynamics as you lose both policy fights and elections- while taking hollow comfort in "the reality" of your polls.

[CTLawGuy]

20. hope you can see clearly enough

all the way from Australia...

[depakid]

21. Distance provides perspective and greater objectivity

A question about "support" says nothing about enthusiasm/disappointment (to use just one example) which is what Democrats much more than Republicans require to win elections. It manifests itself in volunteerism, donations and GOTV efforts, among other things.

People will answer yes to a support question base on a variety of factors-thinking about teabaggers, for instance- but that doesn't translate into on the ground support and it certainly doesn't say anything about specific policies affecting people or constituencies, many of which have more influence on behavior than a bare statement of yes or no.

This is pretty basic stuff that people (hopefully) learn in an undergrad stats class.

Of course, folks are free to ignore all of that- and continue believe that there's not a problem- and that the same dynamic that led to 1994 doesn't apply today.

Just run further and further to the right, keep insulting constituencies- and all will be OK.