The South Rises Again - and Skews National Polls

[Joanne98]

We've seen tons of hand-wringing and doom & gloom predictions for Democrats in the Media and elsewhere of late. But, as is so often the case, we don't get much of a deeper analysis of the national polls that are used and abused to make the case for doom and gloom.

Lawrence's diary :: ::
Mid-term elections are almost always tough for the party that holds the presidency, and with the economy in its current state this one will also be tough. Many pundits are predicting a huge electoral win for the Republicans based on national generic polls, yet hardly anyone is addressing a phenomena at play here that is obviously skewing the national polls. From Msnbc's First Read in regards to the latest NBC poll:

*** It’s the geography, stupid: But could those GOP electoral gains come from just one part of the country? The poll contains this interesting finding: The GOP has a HUGE generic-ballot edge in the South (52%-31%), but it doesn’t lead anywhere else. In the Northeast, Dems have a 55%-30% edge; in the Midwest, they lead 49%-38%; and in the West, it’s 44%-43%. Yet do keep this caveat in mind: Many of the congressional districts Republicans are targeting outside of the South resemble some of those Southern districts they’re hoping to win back in November -- where you have whiter and older voters. Think Stephanie Herseth's seat in South Dakota; Tim Walz' seat in Minnesota; Leonard Boswell's seat in Iowa; and Ike Skelton's in Missouri.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...

The Dems are obviously enjoying their traditional huge lead in the generic ballot in the NE while the Republicans are proving themselves true to the trajectory of becoming the party of the south, as so many excellent analysts here on DKos have predicted in the past. The south is the only region of the country where the Republicans hold the lead in the generic ballot, despite a less than stellar economy and 24/7 hate and lies being aimed at the Democrats from rightwing hate radio and Fixed News.

This implies that Republicans have made most of their gains in areas where they already enjoy huge advantages anyway.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/8/12/892463/-The-South-Rises-Againand-Skews-National-Polls