Public Policy Poll--PA Senate: Toomey: 45% Sestak: 37%

[WI_DEM]

This is their first poll using "likely voters":

Toomey moves ahead in PA-Sen race

With Joe Sestak's victory in the Democratic primary and the poll bump that came with it now three months in the rear view mirror, Pat Toomey has taken a 45-36 lead in the Pennsylvania Senate race. That's a big change from the tie PPP saw in a June survey of the race but pretty similar to the solid Toomey lead our April survey showed.

Toomey's winning for the same reasons most Republican candidates across the country are doing well in key races right now:

-He has a 50-23 lead with independent voters.

-He's benefiting from a much more unified party, as he leads 74-9 with Republicans while Sestak is currently up only 64-15 with Democrats.

-This is our first poll of the race explicitly surveying likely voters and given the considerably greater enthusiasm on the Republican side we're seeing an electorate in the state that voted for John McCain by a point in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual 10 point victory in the state.

There is indeed almost a total correlation between how voters feel about Obama and how they're planning to cast their ballots this fall. With those who approve of Obama, Sestak leads 75-6. But with those who disapprove Toomey's ahead 74-8 and with that being the much larger group it gives him the overall lead.

This may represent somewhat of a low point for Sestak. The undecided voters lean Democratic (they voted 52-36 for Obama) and it's hard to imagine the level of Democratic interest in the election going anywhere but up. But for now Toomey's in a pretty good

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[xchrom]

1. Interesting. Nt

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

2. .

:puke:

[bluestateguy]

3. Strikes me as false and difficult to take seriously

nt

[tritsofme]

6. That's my system too

If I don't like a result the pollster is garbage, if I do like it, then they are obviously soothesayers.

[karynnj]

4. Interesting - and it may reflect more on their "likely voter" model than on the race

For the last year, we have heard of this huge wave of republican enthusiasm. Yet, in more elections than not, it failed to materialize.

They are putting a lot of weight on what happened in VA, NJ, and MA. I know less than nothing about VA, but it was not a wave of enthusiasm that led to the wins in NJ. I live in NJ, in Christie's county. There was no wave of enthusiasm for him or his believes. What there was was a strong dislike - even among Democrats for Corzine. This was partly self inflicted as he did not try to run a high road campaign based on the choices (good ones I think) he made when the budget needed cutting. He ran a very negative campaign.

MA, likewise, was not a sudden repudiation of Kennedy, but a very lack luster candidate who ran an awful campaign - and a good looking guy who the media pushed - and is still pushing.

Not to mention, given that this is "likely voters", it seems odd that the undecideds are so high.

[Demoiselle]

5. Toomey just finished a heavy tv ad campaign. Full of absolute bullshit.

At least around here (Philly.) The Democratic Party has placed an ad in the last couple of weeks, a good slice at Toomey. So far no Sestak ads per se...at least around here.
I'm hoping things will change when the media buys get a little thicker.

[bigdarryl]

7. I live in NJ next to PA there have been nothing but Toomey ads on TV

for the last two months straight BASHING Sestak.Last week was the first time I've seen a Sestak ad.He's not running a good campaign in my opinion i DON'T KNOW IF ITS MONEY OR WHAT.

[Demoiselle]

11. The ad I've seen isn't even a Sestak ad..It's from the Demo Congressional whatnot...

[rury]

12. I thought Sestak would be a better candidate in the

general election against Toomey.
I'm beginning to wish Specter had won the Democratic rimary.

[old mark]

8. Toomey has been running TV ads for 6 weeks - Sestak's ads just started

last week...and they are very effective, where Toomey's are the usual "less government" GOP bullshit.

Sestak's ad calls out Toomey's SUPPORT of the big banks that partially enabled the crash...Toomey is a real RW corporatist big money guy, trying to present as a man of the people...


Remember, Sestak trailed Specter in the primary till the last few days, won handily all over the state...

It ain't over yet.

mark

[AlinPA]

9. Yes, I have seen a few Sestak ads on Pittsburgh area TV the past few days. Toomey had flooded

the TV with ads for at least 6 weeks. Toomey must have a huge warchest, but with the SC decision on campaign funding, Toomey will be swimming in money.

[old mark]

10. Toomey is a good friend of the banks...he won't hurt for donations....nt

[Hawaii Hiker]

13. If Sestak gets the Specter voters from the primary, he should be in great shape

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=34&OfficeID=2

[Rosa Luxemburg]

14. The independents must want Social security and Medicare to go?