PPP: FL Senate--sneak preview of tomorrows GE numbers (good news for Rubio?)

[WI_DEM]

Monday, August 23, 2010
Florida Senate Preview

Kendrick Meek is headed for a big win in tomorrow's Democratic primary in Florida but the real winner from the night's results might be Marco Rubio.

In the general election Senate numbers we'll release tomorrow Charlie Crist has a 24 point lead over Jeff Greene with Democrats. But he trails Kendrick Meek by a point with them. It's hard to see a path to victory for Crist without winning the Democratic vote.

The last time we polled the race Crist had a 9 point lead over Meek with Democrats, but Meek's primary campaign has had the impact of increasing his support for the general election within his own party.

Stay tuned for those numbers tomorrow.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[DavidDvorkin]

1. I would think that such numbers would be good news for Meek

But I guess everything is good news for the Republicans.

[WI_DEM]

2. how does leading among democrats by 1-point come out to "good news for Meek?"

[DavidDvorkin]

5. Sorry, I misread it as leading in general, not with Democrats

I would like to know what the trend is, though.

[SwampG8r]

12. because cowardly florida dems

are pushing crist who is a jeb bush crony
if dems stick with the party rubio loses crist loses and meek wins
i will not vote for the lesser of evils im voting meek

[HooptieWagon]

20. Huh??? Jeb hates Crist, that's why he supports Rubio.

[suzie]

15. I would think the opposite is true.

Many Florida Democrats have stated that they'll vote for Crist if it looks like Rubio will win.

Polls showing Meek causing Crist to lose would most likely help those voters make up their minds early in the General.

[DCBob]

3. If this continues and Meek pulls a substantial percent from Crist up close to election day, then..

I suspect a "deal" will be made.

[flamingdem]

4. Throw to which do you think?

Why would Crist throw his votes to Meek?

[DCBob]

6. I doubt Meek could win even with Crist's endorsement..

but clearly Crist would win with Meek's.

[flamingdem]

7. Would Meek do that?

He'd have to get a big prize, and Crist would have to go dem .. maybe

[DCBob]

8. Not sure exactly how it will work out but it just seems to me the Dems are not stupid..

enough to let Rubio win this by splitting the vote... imo.

[Dr.Phool]

9. Never underestimate the stupidity of the Florida Democratic Party.

They've got it down to a science.

[SwampG8r]

14. but you hope they are

stupid enough to elect a republican

[DCBob]

16. you are one confused gator..

your ignorant comments should be against the rules here.

[SwampG8r]

17. maybe they SHOULD be

but your constant drum beating for a third party candidate over the democrat IS against the rules

You are not permitted to use this message board to work for the defeat of the Democratic Party nominee for any political office. If you wish to work for the defeat of any Democratic candidate in any General Election, then you are welcome to use someone else's bandwidth on some other website.

Democratic Underground may not be used for political, partisan, or advocacy activity by supporters of any political party or candidate other than the Democratic Party or Democratic candidates. Supporters of certain other political parties may use Democratic Underground for limited partisan activities in political races where there is no Democratic Party candidate.

[DCBob]

18. You implied I was hoping for the Republican to win.

That is a completely false claim and I believe against DU rules.

If you have a beef with me send your evidence, imagined or otherwise, to the mods... I am sure they know my posting history a helluva alot better than you.. otherwise stfu. Have a nice day.

[SwampG8r]

19. crist IS a republican

and "stfu" is definitely a no no

[ChiciB1]

23. EXACTO-MONDO!! Right Now As It Stands Many Democrats Are Thinking

like you are! Meek won't benefit from Crist throwing the towel, but Crist WILL benefit if Meek can't get his MoJo going!!

I'm hearing this a LOT!!

[SwampG8r]

13. you love you some crist dont you

you cant bring yourself to support the democrat at all

[ChiciB1]

24. Say That ALL You Want... But Democrats Here Really DO Want A Democrat To

win! It's just that Meek doesn't look like he has what it takes to pull if off! I reserve to commit until I see what the next 3 weeks to month will bring!!

[ShadowLiberal]

10. Lets hope they stay that way, primaries can give winners a temporary boost in the numbers

It's been seen before where people who trail all year long suddenly get really close in the polls right after winning a primary, only to go right back to trailing double digits a few weeks later.

A few years ago one republican in New Jersey once closed a 20 point gap down to a 1 point gap the day after his primary, then a week later was back to being 20 points down again, and pretty much stayed there for the rest of the campaign.

Meek on the other hand, since this is a 3 man race, and 3 person races are more susceptible to changes, is probably better positioned to hold onto his surge in the polls.

[quaker bill]

11. Rubio's numbers are too high

I don't think he can sustain 38+ through the General. The current numbers are an artifact of the current lull in the battle between him and Crist. Crist cannot win if Rubio's numbers go beyond and stay out of the 20s. Getting a slice of the Democratic vote is nothing new for Crist. This modest slice has allowed him to win statewide races fairly consistently, but it has never been large enough for him to be able to give Rubio more than 20+ percent and still win. If Rubio remains in the mid 30s and Meek stays in the race, Charley loses. The only choice for Charley to win is to drive Rubio's numbers down. This will be the meat of the general election campaign.

[agentS]

21. Give Rubio enough time

He'll fuck up this lead. All we need is some Miami New-Times reporters to hit his ass with some clever questions that Rubio ain't got decent answers for.

Yes, there are a lot of stupid voters in FL. But there's a lot of smart voters. In the middle are low-info voters, but they're not stupid. They just need the info.

[ChiciB1]

22. MEEK IS WEAK!! He Had Better Get His Act Together... Too Many Democrats

here in Florida want to see MUCH MORE FIGHT from him!! Don't underestimate the pull Crist has. If Meek doesn't come out with guns blazing pretty soon... WE HAVE NO ALTERNATIVE but to vote for Crist!!

RUBIO is NO OPTION!! Anything to keep RUBIO from winning is on a large number of Democrats in this state!! Regardless of how stupid people think Florida voters are!

STOP RUBIO is THE BATTLE CRY!! Whether it's Meek OR Crist!! JUST STOP RUBIO!!