New PPP FL Senate: Rubio 40% (+11) Crist 32% (-6) Meek 17% (no change)

[WI_DEM]

Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Rubio back on top

Democrats will get their stronger candidate if Kendrick Meek wins the Florida Senate primary tonight as expected- but the biggest winner coming out of the primary may be Marco Rubio. PPP finds he would begin the general election in the lead at 40%, followed by Charlie Crist at 32%, and Meek at 17%. If Jeff Greene were somehow able to pull off the upset tonight it would be much closer with Rubio at 37%, Crist at 36%, and Greene at only 13%.

PPP's last poll of the race in mid-July found Crist in the lead at 35% to 29% for Rubio and 17% for Meek. Two major developments have shifted the race in Rubio's direction though. The first is that Democrats are now going for Meek 39-38 where before they were going for Crist 44-35. As Democrats have gotten to know Meek over the course of the primary campaign they've generally decided they like him and that's cut into Crist's support for the general election.

The other big difference is that many Republican voters have moved off the fence and they've almost universally moved into the Rubio column. Where Rubio had a 54-23 lead with GOP voters in July, it's now increased to 69-20. Many Republicans were up in the air between Crist and Rubio previously but whatever they've seen over the last month has moved them more firmly into the Rubio column.

Crist's support continues to show an awkward balance that may ultimately make victory for him impossible. 57% of those planning to vote for him if Meek is the nominee think he should caucus with the Democrats in the Senate if elected while 28% think he should side with the Republicans. He's more likely to find the additional support he needs to get elected from Democrats than Republicans, but can he do that without losing the 20% of Republicans who are still with him? Whether he finds a way to thread that needle or not will probably determine his fate.

For now Rubio's in his strongest position since Crist quit the Republican race and decided to run as an independent.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[bluestateguy]

1. Strikes me as false

Crist is ahead

[Radical Activist]

4. Polls routinely under-represent the support black voters.

Especially well in advance of an election. I don't know if Meek has enough support with African-American voters in Florida to get high voter turnout. If he does, then we should assume that Meek will do at least several points better than any polls taken, even right before the election.

[WI_DEM]

5. The better the democratic candidate does the worse Crist will do as an indie.

[Radical Activist]

2. If the movie Outrage is correct,

then Crist is a closeted politician with a long history of anti-gay rights positions.
http://www.towleroad.com/2010/06/charlie-crist-supports-court-striking-down-gay-adoption-ban-has-no-problem-with-gay-couples-living-t.html

There's something so inherently wrong with that. I don't know how any Democrat could support him.

[mgcgulfcoast]

9. i despise crist

why does anyone want him to win? he is a backstabbing egomaniac. next time he runs, if its to his advantage, he will return to the republican party. another specter? NO THANKS.

[LeftyAndProud60]

10. So do u want Rubio to win? Because Meeks definitely isn't going to win. nt

[ChiciB1]

22. See, Even HERE On DU, We Are Seeing Posts That State Many Here

in Florida think Meek just isn't strong enough and won't be able to get his numbers up either. So then, it IS between getting stabbed or shot!

I just don't see Meek making much more progress because even I as an activist have neither seen nor heard him on the airwaves all that much! But then, I do live in a county that elects Repukes most of the time! Or ALL OF THE TIME!!

[golfguru]

44. Do the math....

If all the votes Crist will get went to Meek, the democratic
candidate wins.

I can't believe people here are against the real democrat and
kissing the Indie's behind.

[tsuki]

54. I'm sorry, but NWF is too racist to vote for Meek. Meek lost to Greene in

this county, 50+% to 33+%. And that's not because they liked Greene.

[ChiciB1]

58. [b]ALSO, IMO Meek Didn't Win Yesterday, Greene Simply BLEW It![/b]

While some will say that Florida isn't really a "southern" state because we have so many transplants from up north, there IS racism here! I see it, I hear it and I abhor it!! I'll even give you an example of something that I SAW & HEARD recently!! I took my 19 month old grandson to Mote Marine just last week, and they have a small pool for the kids there. There were quite a few blacks splashing around, and behind me I heard something awful! What I heard was this, an actual quote "well I guess they didn't get all of the oil spill cleaned of after all!" THINK ABOUT IT!!

I didn't want to make a big scene, but I just couldn't let the remark go without having to say something. I turned around and spoke to the person and told them that perhaps THEY should leave because I HEARD that people with WHITE SKIN were getting rashes from swimming in waters that have been contaminated!

My son-in-law works in the ER room as a critical care nurse, and they HAVE actually been seeing people come in with rashes after they swam in the Gulf! I live close to the Gulf and haven't seen any tar balls, but we do know that because of the use of Corexit that there are big plumes out there!

But for people to make THAT kind of comment in front of many people, not only is racist but also shows that they don't even try to hide it!!

Obama did win Florida, but I attribute that to the Rock Star quality of the race he ran. Living in a Ruby Red county, I doubt even Obama could win as a DOG CATCHER here!!

Now, I'm going to share more bad news for Meek! I PERSONALLY know 7 people who didn't even bother to vote in the Primary yesterday, even when I mentioned that there were other candidates that needed their votes to win! They had no problem with Meek's skin color, their explanation was that they simply don't think he can win in the General! PERCEPTION!!!!

We will have to wait and see if he gains any traction now, but I wonder if having Obama come here to campaign for him will be a PLUS or not!!

Greene just had LOTS of money and might have pulled it off if his association with Tyson hadn't come out! For a while there was only 1% difference between Greene and him! From what I'm seeing, at this point in time, Meek has to climb a mountain to win in the General! Recall I said 7 people didn't vote, well everyone of them said they are going to vote for Crist, REGARDLESS! I'm still on the fence myself, but if it looks like Meek is behind Rubio & Crist by more than 5 pts., I think I'm going to have to go with Crist too!

RUBIO is just that much of a FEAR for me and many other Democrats in this state! And let me add, I REALLY wish this wasn't a problem for Meek, but so far he just hasn't been a very strong candidate! I worked hard AGAINST Crist when he ran for Governor, and NEVER thought I could EVER entertain the thought of voting for him.... EVER!!

Crist may well be a snake, but he's been much more moderate than I thought he would ever be! PERCEPTION is a HUGE factor in this race and how he'll do in debates will really be his downfall, or salvation!

Just sayin'...

[Drunken Irishman]

12. It's not about wanting him to win. It's about not wanting Rubio to win.

Kind of like being asked if you'd rather get stabbed in the leg or shot in the face. Neither are ideal, but I'm guessing everyone would rather get stabbed in the leg - at least you have a good shot of surviving!

[flamingdem]

14. Wrong. Many of his positions are to the left of Meek nt

[JI7]

33. Where is Crist left of Meek ?

[totodeinhere]

50. Maybe they are now after he decided to move to the left.

But it wasn't long ago that he was a conservative Republican. Who knows if he wouldn't change positions again if it suits him? I don't trust him.

[BootinUp]

3. I sure hope Crist and the Dems don't hand it to Rubio

that would really ruin my day.

[Vincevega]

6. Meeks should drop out

The only way that doesn't happen is for Meeks to drop out. Its that simple,

[seattleblue]

7. Crist has no chance and we must unite behind Meek.

Crist has no ground operation because he has no party behind him. He can't win on commercials alone. There may be Democrats who back him privately or even publicly but the party organization will not back him and he will have no election day GOTV. Crist should drop out if he doesn't want Rubio to win.

[DCBob]

13. Are you on drugs?

Crist has been leading in almost every poll since he shed his 'R'.

[ChiciB1]

20. Yes, I've Seen & Heard That Myself! I Don't See Crist Dropping Out

nor do I see Meek as being strong IN ANY WAY!! I don't know where they got these numbers because many people I've spoken too (Democrats) feel they will do ANYTHING to keep Rubio OUT!!

I personally know Democrats who have already stated they are voting for Crist. People here may not like what I'm posting, but I HAVE been doing some personal polling of my own. Just people I know and their friends, nothing scientific and Meek isn't all that popular!

He's going to have to get his butt in gear because right now it looks like it will be between Crist & Rubio! And if that's the case... Democrats KNOW that we CAN'T have Rubio!

I try NOT to think of him winning at all, but I do think Rubio has Repukes stuck to him like glue. That's what Repukes do for the most part! But, if Meek's numbers don't get better real quick, Democrats will be thinking long and hard about whether they want to risk having Rubio!!

Too many simply can't fathom having Rubio win! But we shall see. Still I don't believe this polling!! Not from what I've been hearing, and I live in a Ruby Red County!!

[seattleblue]

24. I'm on drugs since I want to support the Democratic nominee?

Most recent polls shows Crist is behind. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/fl/florida_senate_rubio_vs_meek_vs_crist-1456.html Ignore them if you wish. Whatever the polls shows, Crist will lose 10% from his pre-election poll percent on election day because he has no ground operation. What drugs are you trying to push?

[DCBob]

29. No. Your probably on drugs thinking Crist has no chance.

Are you?

[seattleblue]

30. If that is the only line you can come up with you need some help.

[flamingdem]

15. What information do you base this on? Links please nt

[DCBob]

18. Crist has been leading in most polls since he switched..

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/fl/florida_senate_rubio_vs_meek_vs_crist-1456.html

Edited for incorrect post. Sorry for the confusion.

[seattleblue]

26. Did you even look at that link? It doesn't support you.

[DCBob]

28. yes it does.. look again.

the green line is Crist.

[seattleblue]

31. Now that we know you are not color blind

you will see the red line is above the green line. Crist is behind and Meek is coming up rapidly. When the primary is over and Democrats unite the blue line will come up.

[DCBob]

32. Did you notice the green line has been above the red line for months?

Yet you think the person representing the green line has no chance. Amazing.

[seattleblue]

35. Polling trends are all about the future not the past.

I suspect you haven't been involved in campaigns very much. Profession campaign people I talk to say Crist's poll numbers will start to evaporate quickly and will end up third and the race is between Meek and Rubio. If you don't believe that fine we will see what happens. Although after seeing turnout tonight unfortunately I think this is Rubio's to lose. Republican turnout is almost double Democratic and both parties had competitive primaries.

[DCBob]

36. So now you are predicting the future..

can you also pull a rabbit out of a hat?

[seattleblue]

40. This is a political discussion board. Didn't you know that?

What about all your posts where you declare who is going to win? Or don't they count?

[DCBob]

42. Back to your original claim.. "Crist has no chance"..

that is an ignorant statement.. no?

[seattleblue]

43. Let's see some of your statements

"Rubio is scum.. he cant win.. By election day the voters will wise up to his lies.. mark my word."

"Meek has never been above 20% in any of these 3-way polls..It's a fantasy to think he has any chance at all of winning this."

It looks like you like to make predictions too! Do you pull rabbits out of your hat also?

My statement about Crist is an educated guess based on being involved in politics and current events longer than many on DU have been alive. But if it upsets you so why bother reading or responding?

[DCBob]

46. So you think that scumbag Rubio can win?

Are the Florida voters really that stupid?

[golfguru]

47. I agree with you Seattle blue

that Crist has no chance to win, he will come in 3rd.

All the stupid democrats voting for Crist are actually helping Rubio.
Splitting votes = sure loser.

[DCBob]

49. Of course you would golfguru.. I would have expected nothing less..

you two are like two peas in a pod.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. I Have Lived In Florida And Participated In Campaigns Here Longer Than Many On DU Have Been Alive

Meek has no chance; none, nada, null.

In your analysis you are ignoring the fact that Crist is the sitting governor with a high approval rating.

[seattleblue]

25. Links to him having no party?

If you don't know that you shouldn't be commenting.

[Ter]

8. Once Crist started supporting gay adoptions Republicans turned against him

He was polling fairly decent among Republicans before this, getting maybe 40% of their vote. Now it seems almost all Republicans are lined up for Rubio.

Now, I am in no way criticizing Crist for his stance, but Republicans are not known for their tolerance.

[ChiciB1]

21. I Don't Know WHY They Don't Know That Crist Is Gay! Most Floridians

who follow politics regularly have known it for years! If, as a Republican he got elected, he got elected a Gay man, with a wife!

They've even shown documentaries about all of this. His former girlfriend almost said it out loud at one time! She said she know, but she really enjoyed his company! He got married right before his run for Governor, and he won!

[DCBob]

11. Meek has never been above 20% in any of these 3-way polls..

It's a fantasy to think he has any chance at all of winning this.

[flamingdem]

16. Yes, it's a Republican fantasy that we believe Meek can win!! nt

[IndianaGreen]

17. Rubio is a crook and a dangerous fascist

Florida deserves better than this!

[golfguru]

19. Crist has shifted on so many issues, my head is spinning

He is a snake and I can not trust him.

[jefferson_dem]

23. This seriously looks like an outlier.

I will wait on results tonight and then confirmation from another poll. If Meek really trounces Green, i'll start to get concerned... that Meek and Crist just may be splitting the votes enough to let teabagger Rubio in the back door.

[seattleblue]

27. Since both parties have competitive primaries another thing to look at

is the number that vote in each. That will give some idea about strength although might not tell too much about how well Crist will do.

[DCBob]

34. Rubio is scum.. he cant win.. By election day the voters will wise up to his lies..

mark my word.

[seattleblue]

37. Plenty of liers end up winning.

When it comes to elections I am a realist not an idealist.

[DCBob]

38. So are you rooting for the liars?

[seattleblue]

39. I support Meek. I don't think he is a liar.

You apparently support Crist. He definitely is a liar.

[DCBob]

41. What do you think of Rubio?

[seattleblue]

45. I don't thin about him much at all except that I don't want him in the Senate.

But he isn't the issue. He will get whatever he gets. Crist and Meek are the issue. The issue is whether Crist will take away enough votes from Meek and act as the spoiler who puts Rubio in.

[DCBob]

48. Rubio is the issue. It would be a disaster if he wins.

Agree?

[jefferson_dem]

51. Of course, Rubio is the issue in this election.

Whatever it takes to keep that guy out of the Senate works for me. All this talk of Meek versus Crist is a trumped-up distraction...and I think "they" know it.

[DCBob]

52. yes indeed.

wonder why its so hard for seattleblue to say those words??

[totodeinhere]

53. I like this quote from Meek.

Floridians want leaders who will fight for them all the time, not just when it helps their own political career or advances an extreme philosophy.

Rubio is an extremist and I don't trust Crist.

[LeftyAndProud60]

55. Someone needs to just tell dems to vote for Crist. Anything is better than Rubio.nt

[quaker bill]

56. The punchline to this poll

Is Meek (no change). The point being that about everything Charley can do to move Meek's numbers down has been done. Charley's only real path to victory lies in bringing Rubio's numbers down. If Rubio actually gets 40 in the three way contest, it is over. The percentage of folks who will vote for any candidate with a (D) is simply too high for Charley to cobble together a number above 40 running in the center as an (I). He needs to get Rubio's numbers down to the low 30s to high 20s to win. Watch, because this is where the fireworks will be.

Meek only has to convince the normally reliable (D) voters to show up and vote for him to win this thing. Charley has to get a huge slice of the (I) vote as well as a slice of the (R) and (D) vote to pull this off. Currently this poll suggests that his slice of the (R) vote is much too small to win. This is where he will be working.