RAS IL Senate poll--Giannoulias 45% Kirk 45%

[WI_DEM]

Topics: Illinois , poll
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Rasmussen
8/23/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Illinois

2010 Senate
45% Kirk (R), 45% Giannoulias (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Mark Kirk: 48 / 40
Alexi Giannoulias: 41 / 47

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 53 / 47
Gov. Quinn: 39 / 60

I have a hard time believing that Kirk has a plus 8 favorable rating considering all the lies he has been caught in.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. That's Wonderful (NOT)

The most Democratic of Democratic seats ia a toss up.

[WI_DEM]

2. 1) It's not the most democratic of democratic seats 2) Both candidates are unpopular

3) It's a RAS poll which has a slight GOP edge. 4) IL has an unpopular Dem governor and corrupt former governor which doesn't help the democratic image. 5) It will come down to GOTV and Obama might be of help in IL.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Illinois has went Democratic In Every Presidential Election Since 92

It's President Obams's flipping seat.

[WI_DEM]

6. true, but a republican, Peter Fitzgerald held it before Obama for a term.

[karynnj]

3. Note that they have already gone to the likely voter screen

That screen leads to a population whose 2008 votes are not a landslide, but a moderate victory for Obama. The Democratic candidate has baggage in that his family's bank went under this year. This poll includes "leaners" but still adds to just 90%. There is a Green candidate who is likely hurting the Democrat. In most races, third party candidates poll better than they actually get votes.

Here is the Rassumussen link - the result without leaners (just added this time I think), was an improvement for Alexi.

[EC]

7. Yeah, I don't get that,

a lot of banks went under, so what's the big deal about that?

[karynnj]

8. It is being used to hit him

Apparently, it was a small community bank, but the "sins" of the big banks (that did not fail) have fallen on all banks. There also were loans - that were not questionable - to people like Resko. So, they are complaining that the failed bank had made his family rich and suggesting that there were shady actions - though I don't think any were alleged.

I would bet that many (especially in Chicago) now saying the Green candidate will vote for AG - just to keep the Republicans out. They voted for far worse people in the past - including Blaggo in his last election.

[DonP]

9. Alexi made a big deal out of how he was running the bank in his campaign for Treasurer

He claimed that he was well qualified because of his experience running the "successful" family financial institution and there are plenty of public record TV spots and radio interviews where he talked up his involvement.

Now, the bank was closed, there is a track record of some seriously questionable loans to sleazy people. IIRC, there' also a link to some Tony Rezko financial dealings and the Illinois Bright Start college investment program lost big bucks under his watch as Treasurer. Probably not his fault, but he was sitting in the chair when the wheels fell off.

The next few months here are going to get really ugly.

[AngryAmish]

5. Talk about an election you have to hold your nose for

Hold my nose I will, tho.

[karynnj]

10. The winner actually goes immediately to the Senate - so he will be there in the lame duck session

This was something I didn't know - so I thought others might not as well. I wonder if that affects the CO and DE races too. (The NY special election is no contest).

“When we win this race, both the regular election and the special election, you would send a 42nd Republican Senator immediately to stop the overreach in the lame-duck session of Congress,” Kirk told a group of Republicans. “That single vote that you cast may have more to do about the future prospects of this economy than any other.”
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003726144&cpage=2