I was having dinner with friends the other night and the subject turned to a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed by Fouad Ajami called "The Obsolescence of Barack Obama." The subject of the piece -- which I had not seen, but now have read -- was essentially the decline and fall of the Obama presidency. Ajami wrote that "the Obama strategy has lost the consent of the governed."
Ajami's central assertion was that as far as this presidency is concerned, it is all over but the entropy. Due to mistakes already made, he suggested that the president had sealed his own fate, couldn't recover and that he (and we) are doomed to a Carter-like descent into presidential impotence and irrelevance. "There is little evidence," the professor writes, "that the Obama presidency could yet find new vindication, another lease on life. Mr. Obama will mark time, but henceforth he will not define the national agenda."
It was a well-argued, quite passionate piece. The problem with it was that it was arrant nonsense. (I recognize that the term "arrant nonsense" should usually be reserved for gaunt English character actors playing the Sherriff of Nottingham but in this instance it fits, and if you heard me say it with my not-so-plummy Central New Jersey accent, you wouldn't think it sounded half as pompous as it might appear in print.)
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This is just silliness, of course. First of all, at this point in the presidencies of John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush they had not defined themselves and indeed, each appeared very different from how we view them today.
Kennedy was still pretty much a work in progress and the Cuban Missile Crisis was still two months away. Johnson accomplished a great deal including the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act and, if defined by his first 18 months, would have been regarded as a great success. It wasn't until after 1966 that his political fortunes began to turn with the deepening involvement in Vietnam and spreading unrest in American cities. Nixon was years away from Watergate at this point. It was in August of his second year that the Camp David process began in the Carter presidency and a deal would not be struck until March of the following year. The "malaise" speech and the Iran hostage crisis were well over a year away.
Reagan, whom Ajami deeply admires and distinguishes from Obama because he allegedly believed in America more than the current president (setting aside Obama's life story as testimony that argues to the contrary), was during the first two years of his presidency still trying to find his sea-legs. Yes, he had handled the air traffic controllers but the "evil empire" speech and the "Star Wars" proposal were still, at this point in his presidency, more than half a year away. And the Iran-Contra affair (which may have slipped Ajami's mind) and the "tear down that wall" speech and the four Reagan-Gorbachev summits were all years away.
link:
http://rothkopf.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/08/19/obama_we_hardly_know_you