Why Democrats Will Keep The House (Hotline)

[jefferson_dem]

Why Democrats Will Keep The House

House Republicans are measuring the drapes in preparation for big gains in the lower chamber, convinced that Minority Leader John Boehner is going to become the next Speaker of the House. On a macro level, that wouldn't be a bad guess -- Democrats are saddled with bad polls and unpopular leaders, and the national mood wants a change from the status quo.

But the Democratic apocalypse isn't guaranteed just yet. In fact, senior Democratic strategists say they're not only likely to keep the House, but they believe the GOP won't come close to gaining the 39 seats they need to take over.

That's not to say Republicans have no chance of taking back the House. Indeed, for every argument Democrats make about their strengths, Republicans have a counterargument. But Democrats have a compelling case. Here are the four reasons Democrats shouldn't be counted out of the majority, and Republicans shouldn't start counting their chickens, quite yet:

• Money: On both a macro level and a micro level, Republicans are seriously behind in the money chase. Most candidates enrolled in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Frontline program for endangered incumbents have huge cash leads over their rivals, and the DCCC has nearly twice as much on hand as the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Plenty of newly elected Democrats won in 2006 and 2008 while being outspent, but they weren't outspent by much. Only Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., won after being outspent by more than a 3-1 ratio. Republican challengers will close the gap over the next few months, but they have a long way to go.

On Tuesday, Boehner said his goal was to run a $50 million independent expenditure program through the NRCC. With $22 million on hand as of Aug. 1, Republicans are nowhere near reaching that goal. The DCCC, on the other hand, has already reserved airtime worth $49 million -- and that's only the first wave.

• Turnout: Beyond advertising, money pays for turnout operations, another area in which Democrats have a clear advantage. The Democratic National Committee has pledged $30 million in cash and services to turn out the estimated 15 million voters who cast their first ballots for President Obama in 2008, and the DCCC has put an average of five field staffers on the ground in 75 districts.

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http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/08/why_democrats_w.php

[jefferson_dem]

1. Ha...

Someone just un-recced this.

Shame on you. Poser.

[fasttense]

2. The Democratic Party will keep the House majority.

The RepubliCONS have to keep all their seat, win all their seats where the polls are leaning RepubliCON, win every single of the toss up seats AND win some of the Democratic leaning seats to win. It wont happen.

Here: Go look at Nate Silver's info: http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/house

In the Senate, they will also keep their majority with 52 seats. Too bad we couldn't pick up some seats in the senate but the Democrats aren't playing politics as well as the RepubliCONS.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Nate Silver hasn't been wrong yet.

[Cosmocat]

3. Never was going to happen ...

As noted, the Rs can't lose a seat and have to win every single toss up race to close FOURTY seats ...

The money thing chaffes my butt ... In the late 90s and most of the 2000s when the Rs had the money edge consistently, that was ALL we heard from the MSM, about the Rs money edge and how important that was ... Not a peep from the liberal media trumpeting it ...

I don't think we will see the low end in the Senate ... I live in PA, and Sestak IS going to tighten up the race with Toomey ... I would hope that it will settle in at an over and under of 20 seats flipping in the house and maybe dip to 54 or so in the senate ...

[Dawson Leery]

16. GOTV

[craigmatic]

29. Yay my congressman will still have his job. Thanks for the link.

Looks like we'll still have the house too. Hells yeah.

[TheBigotBasher]

30. He was wrong on the UK elections

but then so was everyone else.

[agentS]

4. All politics is local will be the key here

In the end, each candidate has to appeal to the most # of voters.
Sure, some voters will vote against Obama (even though he's not running), some will vote against Republicans because they default hate conservatives (like me), and some new voters will make decisions, but fundamentally most voters will vote based on what they know about each candidate, or don't know (as is often the case).

What have conservatives done for me lately? What have liberals done for me lately? Which party can get this community some jobs? I think (not certain since I am not stateside) that is the key here. Dems have default advantage because they have at least been TRYING. What have the Rethugs been doing other than voting NO on everything? Making racist remarks? How is that going to help Nevada's 14% unemployment? Pagin Sharon Angle...

I see a VERY tight house majority, by 1 or 2 seats. A lot of Blue Dogs are gonna lose. We'll gain a progressive here and there. The senate might be tight but Reid (if he wins) will have to change the filibuster rules to get anything done. And we the DUers should be busy, getting votes and after the election, pushing for our agenda. Rahm is not president- he is only an advisor. We too can get in the President's ear. But we also need to do something about all the damn conservatives.

Gays want equality? Get the conservatives out of the way (on both parties, but especially the Rethugs) and you'll get it in a short amount of time.

[dccrossman]

5. Don't forget the Citizens United case

When talking about the money situation, you have to consider all of the non-official source of advertising money that will be flowing in.

Rick Scott certainly proved in Florida that the populace has a short attention span, and can be bought.

As with every midterm, it's all about turnout. Happy, sad, (D), (I), or (R), most of them won't go to the polls. They can't be bothered to interrupt their Tuesday.

Personally, I happen to think we'll definitely hold on to both the House and the Senate. The large Senate majority will be gone, but since we weren't using it anyway, it's not a big loss.

[geek tragedy]

6. I remember the same kind of happy talk in 1994.

Underestimate the profound stupidity of the American electorate at one's own peril.

[WI_DEM]

8. if you read the story they aren't underestimating--they actually are working hard on gotv

operations and such. The article also mentions the PA special election that the GOP was sure that they would win--and didn't even tho' polls showed them ahead in the "enthusiasm gap."

[okieinpain]

17. exactly. n/t.

[Hansel]

20. 1994 didn't have net roots and progressive radio and television.

Two completely different times. There was no way in 1994 to efficiently rally progressives. It's far past time for those with the blogs and microphones to get to work on that.

Also, even the MSM doesn't seem to be as sympathetic to the right wingers recently as they have been in the past. More and more are openly critical of the divisive tactics being used on the right. And, in 1994 the Republican party was not at war with itself.

There is absolutely no comparing 1994 to 2010. Completely different animals.

[Cosmocat]

22. But, it isn't 1994 ...

I TRULY get how stupid this country is, but 94 was the PERFECT storm ...

Ds had the house for ages, seriously, there was the overstated house banking scandal that gave fuel to the talk that the dems in the house had gotten fat and corrupt ...

Again, the Ds have a money edge, we still are only two years removed from the worst president ever, and four years removed from R control of both chambers ...

Rs ran HARD on gays and guns ... Clinton had either passed or sought gun legislation and everyone was up in arms over him tackling gays in the miliary ... BO has stayed away from both of these like the plague to this point, for this reason ...

We are still dealing with the repurcutions of the Iraq war, which the idiot Rs pushed HARD ...

It just isn't the same, seriously ...

[Bitwit1234]

7. Not only do the republicans need 39 seats they need

to keep the ones they have. Who in their right mind would even predict in this climate that the republicans could win anything. And the senate is worst. They need to hold on to their 18 and then gain 10 more so that means they need to win 28 seats. WHO BELIEVES THAT.

[FBaggins]

14. Keeping the ones they have isn't much of an issue right now.

We're at the end of the redistricting cycle and we're coming off of a strong election. Just about every republican house seat that was within reach switched to us two years ago. Right now there are only four tossup (or better) R seats in the House and three more than could move our way is things improve a few points. That compares to something like 45 D seats that are tossup or worse.

[Hansel]

21. There is a difference in voting populaces on the left and the right.

Republicans tend to attract people who have to have others do their thinking for them. So in heavily Republican districts it's easier to hold these groups together. It's actually surprising that they have any seats that are a toss up.

Democrats think for themselves and are more independent. There are plenty who are pissed off of this administration right now and I believe that they show their displeasure and try to push change by responding negatively to these polls. "I'm not voting for them unless..." there is some sort of change or because "they suck".

I think there is a segment of progressives that rightfully are trying to put the fear of god into Democrats and Democratic leaders' smugness toward them doesn't help, but I would be surprised if the numbers are as bad for Democrats as it gets closer to actually pulling the lever as they are now. I think that as the Republicans get crazier and crazier that most progressives and some independents will do whatever they need to do to keep crazies from taking over congress.

I would hope that they would not want these freaks in charge of approving the next supreme court justice, and immigration laws, and civil rights and gay marriage and foreign policy and social security. And I think the threats of endless subpoenas by Republicans will turn independents off. Sure there will be some progressives who won't be impacted by such a call to reason, but they will be a small group.

As a bonus, I think you may even see the war within the Republican party start to play out in sabotaging of the crazies which could make things a little more bright for Democrats' chances.

[DrToast]

9. If we keep the House, that will crush the Republican party

You think the fighting has been bad now, wait until they can't win with a 9.5% unemployment rate.

[harun]

19. Correct. They will finally realize they don't run the place anymore.

[Dawson Leery]

10. GOTV.

If you think things are bad now,
let Tan-"Man" and McConnell have the reigns of congress.

[Peacetrain]

11. In all honesty.. the republicans by just history.. should take one of the houses..

but they have split themselves into ideological factions, that it looks a lot better for the democrats in my less than humble opinion

[Dawson Leery]

12. 53 in the Senate and 224 in the House?

[FBaggins]

13. Nice to see a reasonably positive prediction. But his turnout point is a stretch.

Yes, money pays for turnout operations... but enthusiasm counts far more, and pretty much every poll suggests a substantial enthusiasm gap.

Demonstrating this - I don't think that republicans have out-drawn democrats in off-year primary voting in over 80 years (including 1994). I think that this week's primaries pushed their lead to four million votes. Part of that is having more competitive primary races, but the gap is huge.

[Dawson Leery]

15. kick

[Robbins]

18. reality

Ignore all the generic ballets.As I have tried to point out after Republicans took the congress In 1994 democrats lead In genric ballots yet Republicans keep the congress.

The fact Democrats are outrasing Republicans should be noted.

To take back the House Republicans have to win 39 seats and lose none of their present.Let's also remember since 2008 Republicans
have won exactly 1 special House election and that was In hawaii which 2 democrats split the vote allowing Republicans to win.

Back In 2006 It wasn't untill september before the Idea of Democrats taking the House back started to look It was going to
happen.Bush was in his 30's and Democrats won 30 seats.August polls have Obama from a 43 to 49 approval(depending on the poll)
yet we are suspose to believe Obama will be a bigger drag than Bush yet he has better numbers than Bush had In 2006?Republicans need
9 more seats than we won In 2006.And i guarantee you If Republicans were to win Obama will be given reelection by them and Democrats
could retake the House when he IS reelected

For Republicans to retake the senate they need to win 10 seats.This means they have to win virtually every contested senate race.
In 1994 Republicans won 8 seats and In 2006 we won 6.Remember Republicans have to win races In States Obama won.And remember things
can change In Senate races.A teabager looks like he won the republican nomination In Alaska.No poll had this.Once Reid looked like
a goner In nevada.Now he looks like the favorate.

A bit of history lesson.back In 1982 Reagan The republican and MSM darling In the summer fall to 35 approval.It was looking like to some Republicans would lose the senate and Democrats would pick up over 50 seats In The House(Democrats keep the House In 1980)
and then when Reagan was at 42 percent approval they keep the senate(Lossing only a seat In new Jersey In Frank lautenberg's first senate election) and lost 26 seats In the House to democrats.

Even if Republicans were to get a narror majority In Congress It will be a short lived victory.Republicans hated for Obama will cause
their efforts against Clinton to be mild compared to what they would do against Obama.When the public clearly sees all they care about If going after Obama and not working on solving the economic problems they will guarantee Obama's Reelection,and will cause their waterloo.While some Blacks,Hispanics,Asians,Jews,Muslims,Non conservative gays,and democratic leaning White young people and
women may not entiely come out In 2010 they will be voting In 2012.

[rasputin1952]

23. I don't have the faintest idea why the GOP has a notion that...

the Mid-Term is going to roll over R, if anything, I think the R's might lose seats in both houses.

They have absolutely nothing to offer that would benefit anyone except the ultra wealthy...:shrug:

I have never seen a campaign based on "no, and absolutely nothing else...guess the GOP didn't learn that being stupid is not a plus from the McCain debacle. Boehner has as much of a chance being Speaker as I do...:D

[Ramulux]

25. Its nice to be optimistic

but there is no possible way for us to gain seats.

[rasputin1952]

26. Why not?

The GOP has nothing of substance to offer voters, the Teabaggers are stripping votes away, the only thing I worry about is #'s of D's making it to the polls. GOTV for D's is very important. R's will show up, and we need to counter that, but all things considered, w/the GOP reeling from a lock of ideological punch, they could get crushed this Mid-Term...in any case, they will not take the House, the Senate is out of the question...they are losers.

[Dawson Leery]

27. The base is not going to come out to vote.

As usual for Dems in off year elections.
Of course, Robert Gibbs (Assh**e-Washington) has a big mouth.

[rasputin1952]

28. I think they will show up...

the GOP sucks eggs, and the push for the D base will get into gear in Oct.

[Ramulux]

31. I am not saying we will get blown out of the water

I agree that the media is simply creating the false narrative that we will get destroyed and we will likely do better than expected. However there are certain seats we are going to lose and no amount of GOTV is going to change that. If we show up in force we will be able to greatly diminish our loses but it is physically impossible to keep all our seats and then win some.

Seats like North Dakota and Arkansas will be lost no matter what along with Delaware and Indiana. This election will be decided by how well we do with the seats that are still toss-ups.

[rasputin1952]

34. We will retain both Houses...

and I honestly believe we make gains...I know well over 100 R's in my state that I deal with on a regualr basis...not one of them thinks the GOP is worth a damn, most of them are planning on sitting at home...this is in Nebraska where the GOP has had it's hooks in the voters since the 19th Century. Will NE go Purple of Blue? Probably not, but the #'s for those that will vote GOP are seriously down.

The constant crowing of the media is creating a false showing of the GOP "power", they have nothing, and almost everyone knows that...;)

[AspenRose]

35. That's exactly what's happening

"The constant crowing of the media is creating a false showing of the GOP "power"

They are hoping it will be repeated enough in the M$M so as to discourage Democrats from voting...as if to say, "well the GOP will win back power, so my vote won't count anyway."

[MaeScott]

37. Rethugs specialize in trying to depress the Dem vote....

....how many times can they use this play? they have done NOTHING to help this country, the banks, and corps and moles in the govt are colluding to derail the initiatives that DO get passed. Instead of attacking teachers I think accountability measures are needed in our federal agencies!

The drumbeat will be how the rethugs are going to take so many seats.....GOTV, talk to your friends and neighbors. We cannot afford to let these un-American rethugs anywhere near the keys to the car. It's another rethug ploy and like old Beezlebub, they are relentless.

[Ramulux]

36. Listen

Im not trying to argue with you, but you have to be realistic. We are not going to win a bunch of races no matter what. Can we diminish those loses by winning in places we didn't expect to? Yes, but there are only a handful of republican seats where we are competitive at all. Even if all the polls are all off by like 10 points in our favor we will still lose seats.

[FBaggins]

32. Wow. Extreme optimism.

If only thinking positive thoughts could change things.

I think that the mistake there is conflating "I would never consider voting for one of these clowns" with the assumption that everyone agrees with us. I agree that republicans don't have much to run on... but what they do have (the fact that they are not democrats) is looking pretty effective right now. If people were open to thinking about more than two parties, we would be better off, but that isn't the case.

[rasputin1952]

33. I'm in NE, a serious Red State...

on the Ground, people are ticked. I listen to what people are saying and not much looks good for R's, the GOP base is asking what they hell is going on. The advent of the Teabaggers brought a few laughs to the NE GOP, now, they are worried stiff. But the real problem is the GOP "leadership"; Steele is seen as fool, Boehner and McConnell are seen more as spoiled brats than leaders and the NE R's are wondering where their party went.

The "news" outlets have this all wrong, I believe they have something, but it is no where near as desperate for D's as they'd like people to believe...this is not the first time that the media has crated a "crisis".

To be sure, the D's have a credibility problem, and if Congress would have had a spine they would have left the R's in the dust, it's as if they do not have the Cold Streak that R's have, that capacity to mangle the the opposition. Given a gift, the D's went right to the Return Dept, and would normally pay for such a thing; the seriousness of the problem for the GOP is the only thing they are running on is they are not D's. They have nothing else, and if the media actually spent time looking at the gains made by PO and Congress, the D's would skate to an overwhelming win...the media and the population prefer to sit in a pit of negativity and self pity...precisely where the R's truly are and where thye, niot us should be.

As the election nears, GOTV is an absolute necessity, the R's are despondent and we need to take advantage of that. All of the "polls" that are going on mean nothing, they are essentially fabricated and change from day to day; they are more of a system of push polls than anything else.

We can't sit this one out...but considering that Beck, Palin and Limbaugh are the one's putting out the R "message", we are being handed another gift. We should be doing pretty well.

[wicket]

24. K & R

:kick: