Republicans Very Likely To Overtake House Of Representatives, Analysis Shows

[onehandle]

First, we simulate 1,000 separate outcomes of the national vote. The pooled generic polls
conducted 121 to 180 days in advance of the 2010 election show a very close division of 49.1% Democratic and 50.9% Republican. But a near tie in the polls in mid-summer projects to a significant vote plurality for the Republicans in November, close to a 53%-47% split. This prediction is not due to any bias in the polls, but rather stems from the electorate's tendency in past midterm cycles to gravitate further toward the "out" party over the election year -- ultimately gaining about two extra points beyond what summer polls would otherwise show.

The national vote only tells us part of the story, and we still need to determine how it would translate into seats. For each of the 1000 simulated values of the national vote, we simulate the outcome in 435 congressional districts. Open seats and incumbent seats are treated separately. Open-seat outcomes are estimated based on the simulated national vote swing plus the 2008 presidential vote in that district. Outcomes with the incumbent on the ballot are estimated based on the simulated national swing plus the incumbent's vote margin in 2008 and whether the incumbent is running as a freshman. The weight that these variables are given in predicting the final outcome depends on their explanatory power in past elections. Full details are presented in our forthcoming PS paper.

To sum up, first we generated 1,000 simulations of the national vote. Then, we applied each of the 1,000 simulated national outcomes to each congressional district, noting the party of the "winner." For each of the 1,000 simulated outcomes of the national vote, we project the partisan division of the 435 congressional districts.

The figure below displays the range of simulated results. As can be seen from the predominance of red bars, the Republicans win the majority of seats in 79% of the trials. On average, the Republicans win 229 seats, 23 more than the Democrats and 11 more than the 218 needed for a majority. However, the simulations yield considerable variation, with a 95% confidence interval of 176 to 236 Republican seats.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-bafumi/a-forecast-of-the-2010-ho_b_697051.html

[RandomThoughts]

1. LOL, depends what narrative you read from day to day.

And they already have both houses, from Republicans pretending to be democrats, as shown by votes on many issues.


Although really it is more about media right now, since even if they do things, people talk about Republican base issues.

There is such a huge push for Republicans by establishment, their is no logical argument that they have a chance, or the push would not be that obvious.

[DesertFlower]

2. and that would make boehner speaker of

the house and 2nd in line for the presidency.

Jesus H. Christ.

[seattleblue]

7. Thankfully Obama and Biden don't fly in small planes.

[Skink]

3. Maybe there voters will be lulled into a stupor.

[KingFlorez]

4. They'll fall short

All of this is local and Republicans are terrible on local issues, because they are griping about Obama and Pelosi. Everyone predicted that the Republicans would win the special election in PA-12, even polling said so and what happened? The Democrat won. All of this overhype is setting the Republicans up for performing below expectations.

[onehandle]

9. I think it's the 'overhype' that will drive Republicans to the polls.

Also, the foundering recovery.

[craigmatic]

5. I just don't feel it. It doesn't seem like one of those 2006/1994 years.

I think we'll lose seats but it'll be close enough to keep the majority with the dems. Just look at all the special elections within the last 18 months we've won them all with the exception of the MA senate race and that race in Hawaii with 2 dems on the ballot.

[iamjoy]

6. Makes Me Sick To Think About

oh, losing the House would be bad enough, all the carping about what a defeat this is for President Obama too. No, what's worse is if the Republicans take the House they will make undoing all the good Obama has done priority #1 and finding a way to impeach him priority #2

[impik]

8. You can thank the professional left

[Aramchek]

10. oh, how you revel in crap articles like this?

are you ever ashamed at what your dislike for Obama has turned you into??

[onehandle]

12. I have no idea what you are talking about.

I hope that President Obama gets on the road after his Iraq speech and pounds the shit out of the opposition.

It's our only hope.

[MadMaddie]

11. Yawn

[Safetykitten]

13. Oh that's caaaaaaaraaaaaazy talk.

[MaeScott]

14. They specialize in voter depression. Don't believe them....

...they lie and you know that.

They will not take the house or the senate. You read it right here. First!

[shotten99]

15. Let's shred Obama some more-

It only helped get us into this position.