Gallup: GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot

[smalll]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142718/GOP-Unprecedented-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx

51% Republican, 41% Democrat. "The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress."

Meanwhile, Gallup Daily Obama Job Approval stands today at 49% disapproval, 43% approval:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx

While a 6 point deficit is a lot better than the 11 point deficit Obama suffered from at the height of Mosque-gate, it does appear increasingly likely that life underwater has become Obama's "new normal."

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_FN43PdKmZW0/SwouqozvQbI/AAAAAAAAAa4/H6vRG3KZyos/s320/scuba+diving.jpg

[kenfrequed]

1. Absolute BS

Gallup is a pile of crap.

Thank you mainstream media for not reporting factually and critically about the tea parties endless parade of lies and bullshit.

Thank you lilly-livered dlc democrats for working hard to get along with the GOP and sabotouge the progressive agenda, thereby garaunteeing that the repukes retake congress.

[flpoljunkie]

28. Newsweek latest polling has them tied at 45%!

26
AUG
2010
US-Congressional Generic Ballot

Democrats D 45.0%, Republicans R 45.0%

Sample: 856
MoE: 4.1

Population:
Mode: Registered Voters

Telephone
Pollster: Newsweek (source)

Conducted: Aug. 25, 2010 - Aug. 26, 2010

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/polls/11273

[Ter]

41. I knew someone like you in 1994

She kept saying right until the end that it wouldn't be that bad, blah blah. After the election, she never admitted she was wrong, she just kept saying "Hey, Oliver North lost."

It IS that bad, we are going to lose a lot of seats this November.

[Blue Owl]

2. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Thanks for the joke of the day!

Good one.

[rhombus]

3. Wasn't McCain/Palin ahead of Obama/Biden in Aug-Sept?

Dems do poorly in early fall polls. We are going to see a Dewey DEFEATS Truman in November(with a surprise ending of course!) from the media pumping up the GOP. Dems are going to come home in early-late Oct. Watch.

[rock]

6. I actually prefer to say

Early fall polls do poorly in predicting how the Dems will do :) It's due to the mainstream media' bias.

[rhombus]

8. true, true

:toast:

[FBaggins]

9. The polls were all over the place in Aug/Sep 2008

The Gallup poll for 8/30-9/1 had Obama up by eight then had McCain up by five a week and a half later.

To be fair however... that bracketed RNC convention. McCain never really lead again after that point.



Dems do poorly in early fall polls.

That's simply not true. In fact, three of the last four Gallup generic numbers are the largest leads republicans have held in the ~70 year history of the poll. In August of 1994, Republicans were just barely pulling even in this poll.

[rhombus]

10. I'd be confident in GOP numbers in a late Oct poll

I'm sure Gallup had Dewey defeating Truman in that election.

One polling outfit is not the arbiter of all things polling. GOP enthusiasm is extremely high, and it's reflected in Gallup's generic ballot. But as the election draws close, Dems who may be unenthusiastic about voting will come home.

Wait for a late poll in October.

[Dawson Leery]

11. Individual race by race polling

shows a very competitive election.

[FBaggins]

13. No... it doesn't.

Unless by "competitive" you mean "we don't know who will control congress next year".

[KingFlorez]

16. Yes, there are individual races that Republicans are not running away with

Sorry to say that, but it's the truth, rather you like it or not.

[FBaggins]

19. There are 435 House races this year.

Your point is that republicans aren't running away with every single one of them?

The point is that in the tossup-rated races (and even in a number of "leans D" races... the polling has not looked good. I've seen races this week where Cook has the race as a "tossup" yet our guy is down by 10-12-14%

[Dawson Leery]

20. Despite your constant pessimism,

we are going to work for our candidates.
We are NOT giving up because of you.

[FBaggins]

25. That's fine.

"Work harder - donate more" is an excellent strategy. "Lie to people that things really aren't that bad" is a recipe for disaster.

Do try to keep the two straight.

[KingFlorez]

24. That is not what I was saying and you know it

I'm talking about races Republicans need to win, but are not pulling big enough numbers to do so. Republican internal polls don't count, I'm talking about independent polling. I realize you want things to turn out a certain way, but it's not as easy for your side as you think.

[FBaggins]

26. Can you provide a few examples?

I'm off to a community meeting, but I'll give you three for every one you find.

[KingFlorez]

27. They aren't hard to find

Look at the Senate races in Nevada, Illinois and Colorado, Democrats are keeping things very close in those places.

[Llewlladdwr]

45. The mere fact that things are even close...

is not a good sign. There seems to be a lot of whistling past the graveyard going on...

[KingFlorez]

46. At this point, Democrats were supposed to be down more

But I get that Democrats not getting completely destroyed upsets you, so whatever.

[FBaggins]

48. According to ???

Who on earth expected us to be down more at this point?

I haven't seen a single analyst who has done anything but shift farther away from us in recent weeks. Never seen generic polling data this bad... never seen this many of our senate seats in play...

...and you're saying that things were supposed to be worse than this?

[KingFlorez]

49. You don't read the actual polling

I'm talking about individual races. Harry Reid was supposed to be all but done for, but he's holding a slight lead.

[FBaggins]

51. Of course I do. I just don't apply your "special sauce".

More importantly, Charlie Cook and Nate Silver most certainly have "read the actual polling" and know what they're doing. They've made quite clear that things are worse now than anyone expected them to be.

The only reason Reid picked up a bit was because the Republicans picked a nutcase... and even now he is in serious danger. That "slight lead" doesn't translate to an actual victory unless he can pick up a little more wiggle room (which could happen if Angle opens her mouth again).

But Reid isn't the norm here... quite a number of races have been slipping in the opposite direction. Races that were considered in the bag just a few months ago have been tightening. In April-June every poll showed Fisher leading in Ohio (where we had a shot a picking up a senate seat). July and August show nothing but Portman leading. Reuters just gave Buck a nine point lead in Colorado when the race was tied just a month ago. Sestak is falling farther behind in PA. FL appears to be falling closer to Rubio.

I hadn't seen a single poll out of Minnesota in months that hinted that the Republican might win the governor's race... and now the race is tied. Feingold's seat wasn't supposed to be in play at all just a few months ago, now he's in almost as much trouble as Reid.

[KingFlorez]

52. I'm not the one applying anything here

As I said before, you seem to lean toward the other side, so I'll just leave it at that. It's no use arguing with some folks.

[FBaggins]

53. No doubt Cook and Silver are closet RWers too?

Crafty bunch we are. I'm sure it makes you feel better to just assume that anyone who refuses to accept your spin must "lean toward the other side" - but that simply isn't reality.

I tell you what. If you're NOT applying the special wishful thinking massage to those numbers... give us an example of which national elections looked worse at the end of August.

[FBaggins]

14. Late October is WAY too late.

The party needs to know where to draw the line NOW. Which races are we going to spend money on and which ones aren't really competitive. Wait until later October and it's too late.

One polling outfit is not the arbiter of all things polling.

Of course not. But if it were just Gallup saying this, the story would be "what'swrong with Gallup". It isn't just one polling outfit.

But as the election draws close, Dems who may be unenthusiastic about voting will come home.

Let's certainly hope so. But is that based on anything more than wishful thinking?

[rhombus]

21. Honestly, I think the GOP is peaking way too early

Polls like this may be a necessary evil with which to shock complacent Dems to come out and vote. It may serve to light the fire under Dems.


"wishful thinking?"? - No. OFA and the DNC are doing some great work canvassing first time voters. We just need Dems to show up.

[FBaggins]

42. Ah.. But HOW will it spark a flame under democrats

When democrats keep insisting that there's nothing to worry about?

[FBaggins]

4. Even Rasmussen only has it at six

and that's a LV poll.

[Ikonoklast]

5. And then what happens?

Gallup is crap, but thanks for posting.

[Dawson Leery]

7. Yet Obama's approval rating is going up across the board.

Hannity's good friend Scotty Ratty Ras (of all people) has it at just 5.

[phleshdef]

31. Thats because Rasmussen tightens up the accuracy of his polls the closer we get to election.

His polls are normally pretty close by the time the election gets here. That way he can pretend that all the skewed polling he spits out whenever we aren't close to an election has credibility.

[Diane R]

12. Doesn't this poll still obtain it's data from land based telephones?

[DrSteveB]

33. 150 cell phone respondents and 850 landline respondents

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142718/GOP-Unprecedented-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx

[DavidDvorkin]

15. I'd like to know how it looks by region of the country

or even by individual state. A nationwide number can be misleading. If the Republican lead comes mostly from an overwhelming lead in states or districts that are already solidly Republican, then the national number isn't scary.

[Dawson Leery]

17. The southeast is where the trouble is coming from.

The Democrats have a 25 point deficit there.

[smalll]

18. Well, if you look at RealClearPolitics, it is giving 194 House seats to Democrats,

206 to Republicans, with 35 toss-ups. Republicans would only need to win 12 of those toss-ups to acheive a majority in the House.

I don't have a record of it, but I remember that merely a month ago, the Democrats were favored.

Here is the current prediction: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html

[CakeGrrl]

22. "life underwater"...right where you'd like him, right?

:rofl:

[Uzybone]

23. Couldn't wait to get this one posted huh

[jenmito]

29. Gallup has become the new Rasmussen. n/t

[maxsolomon]

30. Too bad we elect all our Congresspeopel on the Generic Ballot

wait - we don't? never mind.

[Mass]

32. The curve tells us what to do with this poll. I am not saying that the Dems are going to have a

great year, there are signs that show they are not.

But this curve changes so much from week to week that it is a great sign it is meaningless.

Just last week, Dems had cut the GOP lead to 3 points. That was down from leads of 7 and 6 points the previous two weeks, respectively.

People dont change their mind this way. Either their sample is not a good sample or they chose people who dont know what they think. Forget this poll (and BTW any generic poll, given that people dont vote for a generic Democrat or Republican).

But it is also probably time to work on getting Democrats elected.

BTW, other generic polls done last week show the two sides tied (AP, I think). I dont put more stock in this poll, because generic polls dont reflect what people will vote, which has a local component.

[Kdillard]

34. Okay and other polls show different numbers. The important

thing is to look at individual races with actual names and doing everything we can to get out the vote.

[NoPasaran]

35. If Obama's numbers continue to sink

He might be as unpopular in real life as he is on DU!

:scared:

[underpants]

36. that's unpossible

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

37. Elections are not decided by generic ballots....

Just saying.

Of the actual races, how many Democrats are in congressional districts that Obama lost in 2008 or barely won. That's the first cut. Then look at each of these races to see how the Democrat is doing. That's the next cut.

What's left is the number of seats we are likely to lose.

[Generic Brad]

38. Gallup is polling for The Onion now?

Learn something new every day.

[jefferson_dem]

39. Not blaming the messenger but you sure seem to be enjoying the delivery of "negatives" lately.

---> http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=421815&mesg_id=422001

Wha happened?

[AtomicKitten]

40. Findings on the so-called generic ballot will fluctuate back & forth before November.

Too soon to cross your fingers.

[WI_DEM]

43. My feeling is that pollsters are over sampling republicans because of the "enthusiasm gap"

Come on people can vote and not be enthusiastic, and I think in the end Dems will turn out in enough numbers that the dems will not do as badly as some pollsters think.

[FBaggins]

44. Enthusiasm doesn't enter the mix until they apply their "likely voter" screens

And that hasn't happened for most pollsters yet.

dems will not do as badly as some pollsters think.

This is very possibly true. Expectations are falling so rapidly that it will be tough for Republicans to meet them. This, at least, is one area where the election isn't like 1994... we aren't likely to be caught by surprise.

[andym]

47. No surprise: weak economy and swing voters leaning right. nt.

[Born_A_Truman]

50. ...

You forgot to add this..
.
.
.
.
.
.
:bounce:

[Drunken Irishman]

54. Hey smalll, looks like Pres. Obama's bobbed his head above the water.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=427065&mesg_id=427065

What say you?