Public Policy Polling: Prevailing Ohio Senate/Governor poll (not pretty)

[WI_DEM]

Previewing Ohio

We'll start rolling out our Ohio poll results tomorrow but there's one finding on the poll that pretty much sums it up: by a 50-42 margin voters there say they'd rather have George W. Bush in the White House right now than Barack Obama.

Independents hold that view by a 44-37 margin and there are more Democrats who would take Bush back (11%) than there are Republicans who think Obama's preferable (3%.)

A couple months ago I thought the Pennsylvanias and Missouris and Ohios of the world were the biggest battlegrounds for 2010 but when you see numbers like this it makes you think it's probably actually the Californias and the Wisconsins and the Washingtons.

There's not much doubt things are getting worse for Democrats...and they were already pretty bad. Somehow the party base needs to get reinvigorated over the next two months or there's going to be a very, very steep price to pay.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

Part of this is that the pollsters are so sure that Dems aren't going to vote that the samples are much more favorable to the GOP. I'm not sure this will be the case or not in November, but we gotta do our best to turn this tide--or else people like Boxer, Feingold or Murray may be caught up in the anti-dem tide.

[KingFlorez]

1. Turnout is what will save some races

If we cannot motivate our base, we lose. I'm hoping that the base gets more motivated by Election Day.

[WI_DEM]

2. I agree. From what I read we have more $$ for gotv, and we really need to get them out

they are supposed to be targeting 15 million first time Obama voters. That's a good idea. I hope that we surprise a lot of people on election day.

[The Northerner]

3. I too hope so

[FBaggins]

4. I've seen that enthusiasm theory a few time (I think by you)

I don't think there's anything to support it. Polling firms don't adjust their sample for enthusiasm at this point. It impacts their likely voter screens of course, but few have put those in place yet.

If anything, it works against us, because most pollsters adjust their sample to account for turnout at the previous elections (which would mean that some could be adding democrats). This is actually something that caused Rasmussen some problems the first year they were in business. They adjusted their numbers for presumed turnout based on increased republican party identification... and they got burned on it.