Public Policy Polling: How Chiles dropping out of FL Gov race will effect election?

[WI_DEM]

Chiles' Impact

What impact does Bud Chiles dropping out have in Florida? You can argue it either way.

Those planning to vote for Chiles on our poll last week:

-Voted for John McCain by a 62/33 margin in 2008
-Disapprove of Barack Obama by a 69/31 margin
-Were 47% Republican, 30% Democratic, and 23% independent

Contrary to conventional wisdom the Chiles voters were Republican and conservative leaning folks quite unhappy with the Democrats. So you might expect his dropping out to actually benefit Rick Scott.

The only problem with that- 60% of them have an unfavorable opinion of Scott while only 15% see him favorably. Chiles was a landing spot for folks who didn't like Scott or the Democrats. With him out those folks are going to have to make a lesser of two evils choice- does it bother us more to vote for a guy we dislike or to vote for a Democrat? My guess is it ends up being a wash and having no real effect on the race.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[jobycom]

1. Three-way races have completely different dynamics than two-way races.

In a two way race you trash your opponent more than you sell yourself, because if people hate your opponent they will either vote for you or stay home. In a three-way race if you trash one opponent people tend to go to the third candidate, disliking the one you trashed and your negative campaigning, so the third candidate siphons off the disgruntled. Usually the candidate who wins is the one of the major two who goes least negative and can best formulate a positive image, especially if he or she agrees in part with the third candidate, even if that makes no sense. You'd think the candidates with the most in common would split the vote, but the third party instead winds up weakening the candidate he or she disagrees with most, by strengthening the other candidate's message. It isn't always enough to win, it's just another factor in a race.

So with Chiles dropping out, the dynamic of the race changes. The fact that so many of Chiles's supporters are Republicans who liked him instead of the Republican indicates those voters were willing to toss the election to the Democrat rather than vote for the Republican. I'd guess a lot of them will be very slow to back Scott now, which means the Democrat has a strong chance to either win their support or to make them fear her less, so that they stay home in larger numbers to punish Scott.

Then again, I know very little about Florida aside from the millions of ads I saw two weeks ago while at Disney World. :) I just felt like rambling.

[flpoljunkie]

2. Tell that to Alex Sink, who is, no doubt, very pleased with Chiles' withdrawal from the race.

[FBaggins]

3. Well... PPP has shown that they understand FL this cycle.

But this comes as something of a surprise to me. I had been hoping that Chiles would drop out. I would hate to think that it hands more redistricting power over to the tea party crowd.