"Four reasons that rosy November jobs report was even better than it seemed."

[Clio the Leo]

Four reasons that rosy November jobs report was even better than it seemed.


Back to Work!
Four reasons that rosy November jobs report was even better than it seemed.
By Daniel Gross
Posted Monday, Dec. 7, 2009, at 11:35 AM ET

It's important not to make too much out of a single economic data point. But Friday's monthly jobs report may be even better news than it seems. The unemployment rate fell to 10 percent in November, and companies shed only 11,000 payroll jobs in the month. That was much better than economists expected and was the smallest such drop since late 2007—and perhaps early indication that, as I've argued, we'll be seeing jobs growth sooner rather than later.

A look inside the report—and, again, with the caveat that it would be folly to draw too strong a conclusion from a single month's data—suggests four other reasons to be optimistic.

1. The trend is your friend. Yes, the payroll jobs number in November came in much better than expected. In each monthly report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also revises the previously reported job totals for the prior two months. And in the past few months, the trend has been that the government overstates the job market's weakness in the just-completed month. In the original release for September, the government concluded the economy shed 263,000 jobs that month. A month later, however, in its October release, September's loss was revised down to 219,000. According to last Friday's release, the September job loss was actually only 139,000. The government originally said the economy lost 190,000 jobs in October, but Friday's report cut that number to only 111,000 jobs. The upshot: For the past three months, the government's first take at job loss figures has been understating the strength of the recovery. Should this trend continue, it's quite likely that when the November numbers are revised over the next two months, that 11,000 loss could turn into a gain.

(more)
http://www.slate.com/id/2237644/

Did you notice how happy someone was Friday?







That was more than the usual townhall joy, IMO.

[AllentownJake]

1. I'm going to say bull sh*t on point 2

because it is laughable in the face of common sense and basic understanding of economics.

[Clio the Leo]

2. And to point 1? NT

[tridim]

3. Good news is always reflexively ignored or spun.

Just look for the peace symbol avatar seal of approval.

[AllentownJake]

4. Do you want to discuss why point 2 is nonsense or do you want to

attack avatars.

[tridim]

5. Let's talk about why you always ignore good news.

That's the real issue here.

I'll start..

Why do you always ignore good news?

[AllentownJake]

7. Why do you always ignore bad news.

Do you want to discuss a particular premise of the OP or do you want to attack me personally.

[tridim]

10. I don't, and you're welcome to provide proof if you want.

Now back to the question at hand..

Why do you always ignore good news? Or more specifically RE: this post, why are you ignoring point 1 and roundly rejecting point 2. Just stating that it's "bull sh*t" isn't an argument.

[AllentownJake]

11. Here you go

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=42688&mesg_id=42735

[AllentownJake]

13. The answer is I've spent the past 7 years auditing

I don't accept the assertions of anyone until they are proven.

[mkultra]

17. its only nonsense because of his take on manufacturing

manufacturing will lead the recovery, and frankly, already is. its nice to know that the service sector is gaining though.

[Aramchek]

21. I guess the Peace Avatars do make it easy to weed out the hater posts

It's a shame they sully such a time-honored symbol with their negativity.

[Number23]

49. "Just look for the peace symbol avatar seal of approval."

If the person who created that symbol could see the caliber of some of the folks using it on this site, they would weep. Literally weep.

[AllentownJake]

52. You think the people who supported Nuclear Disarment in Great Brittain

would be pro-Afghan war escalation?

[Number23]

53. See what I mean? Thanks, Torrance. You always respond right on cue.

[AllentownJake]

6. Revisions are always interesting

There is a trend to the bottom, and there is some hiring going on, what a "recovery" looks like is up for debate, when you tout job creation created by areas subject to the whims of the federal government and budget defecit hawks as a private sector recovery you may have some issues when said hawks win the day in budget battles, which it looks like they are in the 5% cut across the board in the Administration.

[HamdenRice]

8. Basic economics? Huh?

I realize there is a manufacturing job fetish around here, but an increase in service jobs is indeed a good sign. In an economy that depends on, basically, robots to produce the vast majority of the actual stuff we use, more and more employment shifts to service jobs. We simply don't need 100 million people making bricks anymore.

[AllentownJake]

9. Yes we are going to paper push our way to prosperity

While sending our wealth to countries that create products.

[dmallind]

12. None of which produces even remotely as much as we, the world's #1 mfr. NT

[AllentownJake]

14. That is why we have a Trade deficit nt.

[dmallind]

15. Why would you think that?

We are a very rich country even now. We can afford to buy much more than we produce, and so we import an enormous amount of goods. That does not mean that we are not also the world's leading mfr. Why do you think one depends on the other? We are also the world's 3rd leading exporter too. And I doubt very many DU doomers would accurately predict the order of the top 5 either without looking it up. Trade deficits do not measure manufacturing output, only compare imports and exports.

Quick question - why aren't those countries that have the "best" trade surpluses the richest countries with the highest standards of living if that's what matters?

[mkultra]

18. we are the 3rd largest exporter in the world.

and we are real close to numbers one and two. Your understanding of economic scale is kinda fucked jake.

[AllentownJake]

23. Not denying these facts

We also pay for the imports with a large national debt both consumer and governmental.

[mkultra]

25. well, i understand the consumer but not the governmental

as most imports are retail. Im not concerned about increases in consumer debt. Growth in this may be natural as the population grows. To be honest, i don't know if its in danger or not. IM sure someone out there is upset about it but unless than can conclusively show that its a problem, im not going to start panicking.

It seems like every week, some slug is trying to be the new Roubini by predicting a derivative market failure or a new mortgage bubble or something but i have yet to see any of those concerns flesh out into anything tangible.

[AllentownJake]

28. Wait till the Christmas sales data

Than we can talk about consumer debt. I may be totally wrong about it, but I expect there to be some retailers to go under this year, and some major store closings.

Governmental debt props up certain segments of the economy. For instance, do you think Boeing, GE, or Pharma would be as profitable without the US government?

[mkultra]

29. i think boeing and GE would be but not pharma

pharma needs regulation.

[AllentownJake]

31. Boeing and GE rely on large capital expenditures

It isn't a bad thing but a good portion of their products are sold to governments.

Pharma has it's research subsidized and its prices subsidized by US taxpayers.

[Chan790]

39. Jake, typically I agree with you...

however, we just don't produce as much as we consume. A secret, we're not actually capable of producing as much as we consume either...and an increasing portion of our workforce (like myself) would not take or do a manufacturing job at any rate of pay because they simply do not want to work in that sector under any condition.

If you want to argue that there are not enough manufacturing sector jobs for everybody who wants one to be able to have one, I'd agree...but please stop implying that manufacturing jobs are the only reasonable metric for measuring job-creation. There are other valid types of employment that do not involve being blue-collar in any way shape or form. Ultimately, there is a limit on how many manufacturing jobs we can create and it'll still leave a trade imbalance which is sizable.

[AllentownJake]

48. I'm going to agree and disagree

When we continue in the current environment, where we reward foreign dictatorships for polluting their environment and enslaving a large portion of their people in awful working conditions than your theory is correct. If we started to tariff the hell out of said countries for their bad behavior, than they have to either, behave better or not compete.

Barack Obama is a free trader, so nothing will be done on this issue, so you are correct, there is a limited amount of job creation in production.

We all can't be servicing each other either and expect to produce growth.

[Arkana]

16. It's good news, but it's not time to rest on any laurels.

The economy needs to be at least presentable to voters in 2010 if we want to keep our majorities.

[mkultra]

19. dont look at me. Im helping. Some jackasses here need ot grab a mop though.

[AllentownJake]

24. "Grap a Mop"

Great political rhetoric, stupid idea.

The people that need to grab the figurative mop don't post on DU.

For instance the 5 AIG executives who are playing John Galt right now.

[mkultra]

26. backing Obama helps

it gives him political capital that he can spend to make changes. Otherwise he ends up trying to woo republicans to replace blue dog votes.

[AllentownJake]

27. He does that anyway

He was obsessed with getting Snowe to vote for Health Care reform for the longest time.

The entire there is no red America and Blue America thing.

[Aramchek]

20. He's done a damn good job saving this Nation from Economic Collapse

[high density]

22. A year ago, wasn't Obama's team forecasting the nation would stop the loss of jobs in Q4 2009?

I seem to recall everybody, including myself, was pretty skeptical on that... But here we are.

[mkultra]

30. no, the prediction was that the decline woudl flatten by q4 2009 and

jobs would be seen in 2010. That's pretty consistently been the message.

[AllentownJake]

32. They were off by a few % points on where it would stop. nt

[Yavin4]

33. Comparing Economic Data from early Dec. 2008 to early Dec. 2009 Shows

That we're heading in the right direction. Last year, we were talking about complete armageddon. This year, we're talking about positive signs of improvement. That's good news no matter what. Now, whether we continue to improve or fall back is an open question. Still, right now, we're headed in the right direction.

Any other economic "analysis" to the contrary is from people who hold extremely unrealistic views of what can be done with this economy by one leader of one branch of the entire govt. given its current political climate. IOW, there are folks who desperately want this president to fail so that an ideal Liberal leader can somehow be elected and from which a Liberal utopia will emerge.

Finally, save the claim that "I volunteered to get this president elected." That means nothing.

[AllentownJake]

34. Thanks for that dose of Hope

:rofl:

I don't want him to be an idealized liberal leader. I'd settle for slightly to the left of Clinton on economics.

[ClarkUSA]

35. Says someone who thinks Pres. Obama is a "dumbass" who has "no political courage on any issue"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=14766&mesg_id=14798

Who would have thought you'd bring up Clinton, of all people, in your reply, while you deride another poster's fact-based analysis
as "a dose of Hope"? :eyes:

[AllentownJake]

41. One act pony

And obsessive.

[ClarkUSA]

43. Yes, you are.

That much is obvious.

[AllentownJake]

44. I'm not the one bookmarking post from two weeks ago for internet wars

:rofl:

[ClarkUSA]

45. But you are the one who is pissing on this good news thread -- and trashing Obama as usual.

That much is obvious.

[AllentownJake]

46. Which is why I called you a one act pony

I disputed one point of the OP, and four of you start crying like I just took your kick ball.

[ClarkUSA]

47. Your bitter disparagement of good economic news & of Pres. Obama is the only "one act pony" here.

That much is obvious.

[AllentownJake]

50. WAAAAHHHHH

AllentownJake said something that upset my delicate sensibilities.

I actually said something nice about the Nobel Prize...however that one snuck past you.

[Yavin4]

36. Obama Can Never Satisfy Nor Please People Like You

The man has pushed to the limit everything that could possibly be done given the current political climate, and all folks like you do is throw cold water on ANY significant progress at all.

Again, read the news from December 2008 when everyone was predicting that the world would collapse. I remember people demanding that Obama assume the presidency well ahead of his inauguration, and put a Treasury secy. in place.

[Cha]

38. That's right..I've seen 10 months of this

trying to throw cold water on Pres Obama's firedupness and all the fauxrage I ever want to see.

[mkultra]

40. overall its a pretty stupid move for progressives

its the only reason we dont stay in power. The inability to use elections instead of protest and outrage to move the center.

[Cha]

42. Yes, and they don't even

want to deal in facts..just the way they interpret them as if they had a lousy interpretor.

[AllentownJake]

51. I'm a liberal

I don't kow tow to Right Wingers attacking a perfectly good word.

[mkultra]

54. you also dont know the folly of a house divided.

if anyone is a right winger here buddy its you. I worked to get this guy elected because i hate republicans. I support him because i know what they will do when they get control. As far as im concerned, every time i hear some jackass call himself "independent minded" while slamming a democrat, im reminded of teenagers who really don't know whats on the other side. The reason republicans EVER get control is people like you. as far as im concerned, you aren't just part of the problem, you are the problem.

[AllentownJake]

55. The blame the left meme

Let me see on last election day, I was driving a van with canvassers all over Allentown, than sitting in a polling location why votes were counted to get numbers till 9:30 for the party. On the election day before that I was the one sitting up at a staging location till 3 am than working the whole day for the than Senator. Next year I guarantee you I'll be someplace doing something. I'm going to hear a primary candidate for Governor out tomorrow to decide whether to lend my support, even though I'd rather stay out of that particular primary.

Keep blaming me, I'm noisy, but I show up.

[mkultra]

57. great, now stop helping the republicans

and learn to couch your criticism in a constructive way. its common knowledge, Jake, that we eat our own in the democratic party. Even though that be caused by a sense of independence and thoughtfulness, the end result is that we often lose to far less valid candidates because their ground game is better. George Bush is an excellent example of that on two occasions. This isn't really supposition, its axiomatic fact.

Until we learn to grow up and keep our deputes in the family, we will always lose. The fact that we rip each other apart, is why McCain rarely said a word about us during the primaries. He didn't need to. The way we resolve internal conflict has to become more mature fast if we want to continue.

For example, if you don't like Obama, fine. perhaps you should save it until the next primary. Your criticism doesn't change anything for the better but does give ammunition to the right and disassociates the blue dogs. If those bastards knew they would be cut if they got off the party agenda, they would stay on it for sure.

[Cha]

37. You just know the White House is

watching these numbers daily and so happy now when they're ticking upward!

[BR_Parkway]

56. Does anyone know how much of the Nov jobs are temp hires for the holidays?

I've not been able to find that anywhere and it'd be nice to know if this bump is going to be a last one or not.