I think the GOP has peaked too soon...

[WI_DEM]

I think things will tighten and turn the Dems way as we go into the Fall. Dem enthusiasm will increase our GOTV efforts will turn some toss-up races into Dem victories. Not that Dems won't lose seats in the House and Senate, but I believe we will keep majorities in both.

[emulatorloo]

1. Most people do not think about a November election until 6 weeks out

Given that quite a few of the Republican candidates believe Medicare and Social Security are "unconstitutional" and their economic plan is more tax breaks for the rich, I am not sure what they have to offer. Other than race baiting and fear.

[felinetta]

19. I agree. People don't pay attention to elections until Labor Day. Just get out the vote.

[liberal N proud]

2. We can surely hope they flop in the 4th quarter

[fugop]

3. Summer sucks

Summer really seems to suck for Democrats. Last year was ridiculous, with all the freakin' Tea Town Halls and such. I remember it being a really rough time. Then the fall came, and a smidge of sanity seemed to return. Maybe Democrats are out having fun in the summer instead of getting all whipped up into political frenzies. I don't know. But I'm hoping that this fall, like last fall, shows some improvement.

[bluestateguy]

7. There really does seem to be something about summer that damages Democrats

Al Gore didn't start coming back until September after being down by double digits for 6 months in 2000.

And in 2008, there were the PUMAs and the media's obsession with them and the polls were tight.

[rufus dog]

17. You have identified the reason that summers suck.

Things are a bit slow and the MEDIA controls what is reported.

Could have easily been a month reporting "Is the Tea Party pulling the Republicans Apart?"

1. Three Senate races that should be slam dunks (now four) for the Republicans are suddenly up for grabs.
2. Republican incumbents BASH the tea party.

See very easy if they wanted to report stories in that way.

[Dawson Leery]

22. Gore was down 15-20% during the summer.

He came back to win it only to have the USSC steal it from him, and us.

[flpoljunkie]

4. Let us hope the tide will turn. We need President Obama's leadership now.

[bluestateguy]

5. That might well be true, but only if Democrats proactively energize their voters

What you said can be true, but not if Democrats sit around and just wait for the needle shift back in other direction on its own.

[eleny]

6. Just an FYI - Remember that people who vote by mail can vote early

Here in Colorado the ballots are being printed on Friday and will be mailed out shortly after that. In the past 50% of those ballots will be mailed back by the voters within the first month from when they received them.

So there just isn't as much time for candidates to make their case as there used to be many years ago.

[WI_DEM]

9. maybe part of our gotv efforts should be making sure people vote early by mail?

[eleny]

13. It will help Hickenlooper (D) in the Colorado governor's race

The most recent poll was conducted by Rasmussen and Hick's numbers are going down slightly. The Republican who is running has some scandals emerging so he's tanking. This gives Tancredo a better chance.

One hope out here is that the Republicans, out of disgust, will not vote. Some believe that they'll embrace Tancredo. But there's bad feelings about him. It's quite a mess and early voting only makes the results more of a mystery to predict given what you pointed out about how people don't pay attention until late.

[WI_DEM]

14. I hope republicans will be so confident of victory that they will not vote

thinking that they're going to win anyway.

[Nite Owl]

8. Hoping you are right

Rachel did a thing on Reid last night. How it was a given that he was so far behind that the R would win no matter who it was. Now that they got a look at what's her name and what she wants, how much of a nut she is, he is ahead. Hope it is that way in other races. The GOP is mistaken in letting the tea party people in (or Americans are really that dumb!).

[rocktivity]

10. They don't have Iraq and Afghanistan to kick around anymore

That's going to help a LOT. In case they haven't noticed, Obama has gone nuclear on them.

:headbang:
rocktivity

[shotten99]

11. Hopefully Carville and Axelrod take control of the message.

They were great the first 6 months. Apologize to Rush Limbaugh, etc.

Where are they now?

[karynnj]

15. Carville??

Carville was never an Obama spokesman. He was awful when the BP spill started.

[jberryhill]

12. That is correct - In 2008 Mcain was ahead for three days or so - End of August /nt

[Beetwasher]

16. If The Last Three Election Cycles Are Any Indication, Then Yes, They Did, As Usual

n/t

[kenfrequed]

18. The repukes are being primed...

They will possibly fall into the expectation trap, where anything short of seizing both houses will be seen as defeat. If they don't pick up any seats it will be a crushing defeat.

[jefferson_dem]

20. I hope you are correct.

I'm not so sure about that but I am certain that the gNOp wishes the elections were next Tuesday instead of November 2. Their wave of momentum will likely get no higher than it is right now. My concern is that there are few key pivot opportunities for our side. August jobs numbers are out on Friday. <GULP> Maybe they'll surprise us...in a good way.

[opihimoimoi]

21. Better yet...we will Gain Seats....I am almost sure this will occur

Its those Baggers and their DIVAs who will expose the soft underbelly of the GOP Beast

[Dawson Leery]

23. kick