Rasmussen Poll--Alaska Senate: Miller 50% McAdams 44%

[WI_DEM]

Rasmussen
8/31/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Alaska

2010 Senate
50% Miller (R), 44% McAdams (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Joe Miller: 50 / 44
Scott McAdams: 43 / 36

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 46 / 54
Gov. Parnell: 69 / 40

[Arctic Dave]

1. Pretty damn good numbers for just starting out.

Once the Dems commence the non stop beatdown of Jo(k)e Miller I would say those numbers will change quickly.

[bluestateguy]

2. In other words

Miller 50%, McAdams 49%

ALWAYS add +5 to the Democrat in a Rassmussen poll.

[FBaggins]

5. Even when it's more favorable than a PPP poll?

n/t

[Awsi Dooger]

9. You couldn't be more wrong in this case

Alaska is the worst polled state in the nation. Not even close. Georgia is second.

I'm emphasized it to Mark Blumenthal on Pollster.com many times. I've posted it often on DU over the years. The more conservative candidate is ALWAYS understated by at least 5 points in Alaska polling. Often 10 points or more. They simply don't have a decent model for polling that state. I can't count how many wagers I've won, often at underdog prices. Knowles led literally every poll for a year against Lisa Murkowski, who won easily. Couldn't have been more predictable, given the nature of Alaska polling.

It always busts me up when Alaska election results are considered shocking. You have to ignore the polls. We barely defeated Stevens in '08 when the polls implied a rout. This time Murkowski supposedly led handily in the primary. But she was hardly the more conservative candidate so naturally the polls were baloney. Palin polled in the high 30s in the '06 3-way primary then managed more than 50%.

Given that poll margin, Miller is actually ahead by double digits.

[FBaggins]

11. Well you're just a ray of sunshine, aren't you?

I want to see a few more polls once the race settles down enough.

The question is do you think the national party recognizes your point? That is... do you think they plan on spending any funds there this cycle? I've already seen McAdam preempt any such concerns by saying that he doesn't need national party help.

[Pab Sungenis]

3. What did the Murkowski/McAdams numbers look like?

Curious to see whether McAdams jumped once the baggers won?

[FBaggins]

6. At least a 20 point gap.

On edit - The PPP poll run just a couple days ago had her ahead by 32%

[Beetwasher]

4. YOWZA!!!! Amazing This Seat Is In Play!

Whoda thunk it a few weeks ago.

[KingFlorez]

7. This race is in play

McAdams is within striking distance, he can pull this off.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

8. This is another good race for those of us who can to dig into our pockets to help. nt

[catgirl]

10. A grassroots effort is needed here

Without a major effort on the ground, we have no chance.