Public Policy Polling--OH Senate: Portman 45% Fisher 38% (most undecideds are Dems)

[WI_DEM]

Thursday, September 2, 2010
Portman takes the lead

Strongly benefiting from Barack Obama's unpopularity in the state Rob Portman has taken a 45-38 lead over over Lee Fisher in the Ohio Senate race.

Both of the candidates continue to be relatively unknown. 44% of voters don't know enough about Fisher to have formed an opinion and the same is true for 43% when it comes to Portman. But Obama's approval rating in the state is a pretty dreadful 41/54 spread and Fisher's attracting only 9% of the vote from people unhappy with Obama. It's going to be difficult for Democrats to win anywhere that the President's disapproval is over 50% if their candidate doesn't have a strong ability to make voters separate their feelings about Obama from their feelings about him/her.

Portman's lead over Fisher is built on what's becoming a pretty regular formula for Republican candidates across the country. He's winning independents 43-30, and he's taking 83% of his party's voters while only 71% of Democrats are committed to Fisher.

There's a lot more hope for Democrats in this race than there is in the Governor's race in Ohio though. 21% of the undecided voters are Democrats compared to only 9% who are Republicans so Fisher has a lot more potential room for growth than Ted Strickland does.

Those undecideds in Ohio tell an interesting story. 54% of them voted for Barack Obama to only 28% who supported John McCain. But they also now disapprove of the President's job performance by a 40/46 margin. The folks who voted for Obama, are disappointed in him now, but aren't sold on the Republicans are probably this year's ultimate swing voters. The way they end up deciding to cast their votes in November is going to make and break a lot of politicians' fortunes.

Things aren't looking great for Fisher now but there's a definite path to victory for him- get the undecided Democrats to come home and reduce the enthusiasm gap by getting his party's voters more interested in the election. Easier said than done, but more than some Democratic candidates can hang their hats on.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[Yupster]

1. In off year elections

people undecided at this fairly late date are likely not to vote at all.

[WI_DEM]

2. Not so sure about that since most people really aren't focused on the elections as yet.

[FBaggins]

3. Most people don't GET focused on a mid-term election

Turnout tends to run around 36-38% of the voting age population.

A pretty solid percentage of the people who are going to vote are sufficiently "focused".

The top of the ticket isn't helping much here either.

[WI_DEM]

5. I think more people will get engaged once it gets closer to the election

[FBaggins]

7. I sure hope so.

But something has to happen to make that a reality.

[Yupster]

6. And most people aren't going to vote either

This is an off year election.

We won't get close to half the people voting.

Those who do vote in off year elections are paying pretty close attention.

[FBaggins]

4. Not vote at all... OR

vote against the incumbent (or similarly well-known candidate).

[Cognitive_Resonance]

8. It's not even Labor Day yet. Time to get busy. nt

[mod mom]

9. Lee Fisher's campaign used rovian tactics against progressive SOS Brunner

in the primary. The party establishment worked to undermine this race from the beginning. I've worked nearly full time during elections cycles for the last 7 years but not this one. I will only support progressive candidates because I'm tired of ENABLING DLC backed democrats. Using dirty tricks on the eve of the primary left a bad taste with many progressives. This is one race that this household and many of my friends will leave blank.

The calls I'm getting try to use the "then you're voting for the republican" line and that no longer works with me. I don't see enough difference between the DLC (backed by Koch Industries & many other corporations) and the GOP to use my vote to further enable them.