The myth of Obama's 'plummeting' Gallup approval rating

[scheming daemons]

Percent approval on the first of each of the past 12 months:

Oct 1, 2009: 51
Nov 1, 2009: 50
Dec 1, 2009: 49
Jan 1, 2010: 50
Feb 1, 2010: 48
Mar 1, 2010: 50
Apr 1, 2010: 48
May 1, 2010: 49
Jun 1, 2010: 50
Jul 1, 2010: 49
Aug 1, 2010: 45
Sep 1, 2010: 47

So.... a very tight range of 45 to 51, with a median of 49. Currently 47.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx


For some perspective, compared to past Presidents:


Bush II on Oct 1, 2001: 87%
Bush II on Sep 1, 2002: 66%

Clinton on Oct 1, 1993: 50%
Clinton on Sep 1, 1994: 39%

Bush I on Oct 1, 1989: 68%
Bush I on Sep 1, 1990: 74%

Reagan on Oct 1, 1981: 56%
Reagan on Sep 1, 1982: 42%

Carter on Oct 1, 1977: 59%
Carter on Sep 1, 1978: 42%


Only GHW Bush was higher in his second year than in his first... largely because of a huge uptick in August of 1990 because of Operation Desert Shield.

The rest of them had a minimum of an 11-point drop from Oct of their first year to September of their second.


Obama's 4-point drop is almost statistical noise.

Bottom line: He's not tanking.



Democrats aren't looking good for the midterms.... but not because of Obama. His approval rating is 15 points higher than the Democratic party's rating as a whole.

[Beetwasher]

1. Yup And Bush II Was Down Almost 30 Points In Oct. '02

From his post 9/11 high.

And Bush I had just started the Iraq war as a blood sacrifice to get his approvals back up in '90.

Obama is actually positioned well all things considered.

[corkhead]

12. Poppy peaked too early, making him a one-termer

[NJmaverick]

2. K & R!

[Cognitive_Resonance]

3. It makes a great media narrative though. nt

[dccrossman]

4. More horrible news...

Gallup's rolling average shows a higher approval than disapproval for 2 days straight! How will they reinforce the narrative if they keep this up?

http://pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm#Gallup

Given the public's memory span of about 15 minutes, the rating is meaningless until mid-October. (Assuming it ever has meaning.) Even then, this is a mid-term. Everything is about GOTV. Turnout will be down, and those that mobilize, will win. The teabaggers have already shown that they can mobilize. We have to do the same.
\

[azmouse]

5. K&R

[flamingdem]

6. Amazing how much news is sold on those mildly varying numbers nt

[Phx_Dem]

7. 51 to 47?! For God's sake man, that's a damn freefall!!

:P :rofl:

[ThoughtCriminal]

8. Another way the numbers are misleading

Clearly, progressives are unhappy with him, but that does not mean that they will switch to the GOP. raw approval ratings do not show WHY voters are dissatisfied.

[ShadowLiberal]

9. Indeed, while dem generic ballot was tanking Obama was going UP the last week or two

How can it be Obama's fault that democrat's are slipping in the generic ballot when his approval numbers are going up at the time that the generic ballot numbers are going down to new lows? The media sure thought it was Obama's fault when they had stories about democrats being at a record low in generic ballots.

The news media has been heavily biased against Obama when it comes to reporting polls on stuff like his approval ratings since his presidency started. Remember the first year when it seemed like every few weeks the media was playing a story of "Obama's poll numbers drop again", even when Obama's numbers had gone up since the last time that very pollster polled his approval ratings? (if Obama had gone up they'd merely show a previous high from farther out to say he went down).

Heck, the media was so desperate early on to play the narrative that Obama's numbers going down that they were comparing his numbers from before he took office (when polls asked how he was handling his transition to president) to his approval as president, even though those are two entire different questions.

[krispos42]

10. Compare it to Bush the Leastest

Months around the circumference, years are color-coded. The darker the color, the later in his pResidency.

[DemocraticPilgrim]

11. Well to be fair his approval did take a hit during the BP thing, but he's back kin the game now. The

main man, the ONLY ONLY hope we have of survival. Stand for accoutablitliy no doubt, but till November let's stand with them to the finish line.