DE-AL: We Can Bank On At Least One Pickup Next Year

[ccharles000]

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (11/30-12/2, registered voters):

John Carney (D): 47
Fred Cullis (R): 24
Undecided: 29

John Carney (D): 44
Charlie Copeland (R): 32
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±4.1%)

With lots of ominous numbers in the polls for Democrats these days, here's a ray of sunshine: the GOP's decision to take a gamble on a Senate pickup by running Mike Castle all but assures them of losing his House seat. Former Lt. Governor (and loser of the 2008 gubernatorial primary) John Carney is poised to pick this one up. He almost doubles-up on the only announced candidate, never-before-elected businessman Fred Cullis, and has a double-digit lead over the GOP's best shot at holding the seat, former state Sen. and former Lt. Governor candidate Charlie Copeland. (In the only other poll of this race, R2K had Carney beating Copeland 44-21 in October.)

As one might expect, everyone here, even Carney, is pretty much unknown: Carney is at 27/18 favorables, while Copeland is at 15/19 and Cullis is basically Generic R at this point, which is good for 3/10. PPP points out in a separate release that 24% of Delawareans have a positive impression of congressional Republicans (not coincidentally, the same number who are voting for Cullis), which shows us what we're up against in terms of Castle's personal appeal and his ability to transcend his party's brand in his home state. Delaware pols not up for election in 2010 are in fine shape: Gov. Jack Markell is at 40/31 faves, and Sen. Tom Carper's at 44/31.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5987/deal-we-can-bank-on-at-least-one-pickup-next-year

[Kdillard]

1. Well it is still early plus the undecided is high but some good news is nice.