"I'm still looking for the headline..."

[babylonsister]

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2010_09/025567.php

SO MUCH FOR THE GREAT GALLUP FREAK-OUT.... Last week, Gallup's generic-ballot tracking poll showed Republicans leading Democrats by 10, 51% to 41%. It was billed as the GOP's biggest Gallup lead in the history of humanity, and the results generated massive media attention, including a stand-alone Washington Post piece on page A2. It was iron-clad evidence, we were told, of impending Democratic doom.

I strongly recommended caution -- Gallup's generic-ballot tracking poll has been erratic and unreliable. Both parties had built up big leads in recent months, only to see them quickly disappear, for no apparent reason. I made the case that inconsistent polls with bizarre swings are necessarily suspect, but the media had its narrative -- the GOP tsunami is coming -- and couldn't be bothered to consider whether the Gallup poll had merit.



Wouldn't you know it, a week later, that massive, unprecedented, world-changing lead Republicans enjoyed is gone. The new Gallup numbers show the GOP losing five points and Dems gaining five points, leaving the parties tied at 46%. Is there any coherent rationale to explain a 10-point swing in Dems' favor over the last week? Of course not.

Just to be perfectly clear, I don't consider this evidence of a surge in Democratic support, and Dems who rejoice at this poll are making the same mistake Republicans and reporters made last week. The point is Gallup's generic-ballot tracking poll just isn't telling us anything useful, no matter which party likes the results in any given week.

What's more annoying, though, is the media double-standard. After the vast news coverage last week's Gallup numbers received, it's striking to see how little outlets care this week. I'm still looking for the headline that reads "Resurgent Dems close gap against GOP" in a major daily, but can't seem to find it.

Indeed, take Chris Cillizza, for example. Last week, the Gallup generic ballot was the lead story in his "Morning Fix" column, and he devoted more than 500 words to the results. Today, Cillizza's "Morning Fix" column doesn't mention the new Gallup results at all.

When the media culture decides poll results that Republicans like are more newsworthy than results Democrats like, there's a problem.

—Steve Benen


E-mail Cillizza here-I did, and it felt fine!
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/chris+cillizza/

[annabanana]

1. No one here harbors any illusions about the bias of CorpoMedia. .

It's the great masses of The Inattentive who need to know.

[babylonsister]

2. This just makes me angry. I know it's going on, but maybe if

'journalists' know we know, they might be more honest. Or not. I e-mailed Cillizza anyway. He's a young'un, maybe there's hope. Or not. :)

[Clio the Leo]

3. Sorry, nope, a nation awaits word on whether Rahm is running for mayor...

.... duh.

I swear I wish the President could have ONE news cycle in which the WH's message wasn't hijacked by some BS.

And we wonder why they're losing the message war.

[babylonsister]

4. It's enough to tear yer hair out! I don't wonder at all, but

I'm discouraged daily.

[FSogol]

5. Our "liberal" media prints exactly what the GOP tells them.

Hearing these stories, seeing theses polls, and seeing Michael Steele's exile shows that the GOP is scared about November.

[babylonsister]

7. Check out this toon...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9095362

[FSogol]

8. Yup, sadly true. n/t

[LaurenG]

6. I don't believe for a second that r's will win by a margin being touted

We could lose a few seats but I won't believe it until the results are back. I am also one of those who have been unhappy with some of the missed opportunities of this administration as well as the nasty insults coming from Gibbs and Rahm.

Do not let the spinning heads and pollsters make you believe their screed. It only serves to demoralize us.

[corkhead]

9. Someone needs to send this to Steve Inskeep at NPR

"reporting" on the "conventional wisdom" of a Democratic bloodbath this fall.

I had to turn him off this morning during his interview with Axelrod. I never see him that abusive to any of the much larger parade of republicons he sucks off each morning.

"Librul Media" my ass.

[rhett o rick]

10. Great post thanks. k & r. nm