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Edited on Thu Sep-09-10 12:06 PM by happyslug
While a growing number of Americans oppose "Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT)", the vast Majority of them will NOT vote on that issue alone. On the other hand those that OPPOSE repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT)", will vote on that issue alone (I suspect many in the Gay Community will also vote on that issue alone, but that vote is no more then 1-3% of the vote and as such minor compared to the people who will vote AGAINST it and those voters who will determine their vote on other matters).
Given that fact, I do NOT see DADT being repealed. Congressmen and women know to count every vote and will vote on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT)" after viewing HOW the voters in their district will treat it. If the District will just ignore it for it is a non-issue for them, then that Congressman or Woman is free to vote as they feel, but in most cases the District will contain a strong minority who will vote on this issue and most Congressmen and Women will see NO reason to give them a chance to determine their vote on this issue (i.e. will vote against it, just to make sure whoever opposes them can NOT use that vote against them in the next election).
Now, this is less a factor is strong Democratic Districts and in Districts with widespread organized gay groups, but those tend to be the same districts. The real fight will be in more conservative districts where the Democrats will NOT want to give their opponents any more then they have to in regards to HOW that Congressman or Woman voted. Thus in more conservative districts most Democrats oppose Gun Control for the same reason, to give their opponent one less issue to draw voters from the Democratic Candidate for that office.
Thus "Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT)" will NOT change in the US. It is the current compromise between the two sides on this issue, with the vast majority of Americans deciding their vote on other issues (such as Gun Control, unemployment, the deficient, the economy, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, etc). Even if the Majority of Americans would support repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT)", if a solid minority oppose its appeal, most Congressmen and Women will avoid the issue and any possibility of a vote on that issue. This includes voting for something the Congressman or Woman wants but contains such an appeal.
The leadership of the Democratic Party in the House and Senate also accepts these unpleasant facts and do NOT want to put any Congressman or Woman in a position to have to vote on something that may cost them an election. Thus even attaching it to a bill that is otherwise popular will be opposed by the Leadership as that leadership tries to help their fellow Democrats to be elected.
On the other hand Warren is an economic issue, she is popular with most Americans who know her and it is clear any opposition is based on the fear she will go after the thieves of Wall Street. Thus most Americans who care about a vote on her will support a vote for her. The opposition to her is so small in number as NOT to be a factor in any election (Through getting Campaign contributions will be affects, Wall Street does not want her and can provide cash, but no GOP candidate is going to say "I am better then the Democratic Candidate for I would have voted AGAINST Warren", it is a slogan one can use to raise money, but not votes and Wall Street like contributing to winners so even Wall Street will NOT give support to such a Candidate).
To those people who know Warren, that GOP candidate can kiss their votes good bye, and the rest of the population cares less i.e. will vote on other issues. Thus no political gain for voting against her, thus she will be confirmed by the Senate (and would be Confirmed by the House, if the House had a vote on her Confirmation, which the House does NOT have). Thus Warren appointment will happen (Unless Obama does not appoint her, but that is his call) and any such appointment will be confirmed by the Senate.
One of the problems with being on a "liberal/progressive" site like DU, is we tend to think alike and NOT take into consideration people who think otherwise. We can say we want certain things done and hope that it is done, but we tend to think that since everyone we know on DU agree with us, it must be how most Americans think. That is NOT the case and "Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT)" is an example of that. It is wishful thinking that it will be repealed.
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