Poll: Dems in good shape to pick up suburban Chicago congressional seat from GOP

[WI_DEM]

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2010 General Election voters in IL CD-10.
Interviews were conducted between August 30–September 2, 2010. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews
apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for n=500 interviews is ±4.4% with a
95% confidence level.

September 7, 2010 To: Interested Parties
Fr: Jeff Liszt / Brian Stryker
Re: Summary of General Election Polling Results in Illinois CD-10

The 10th District is one the top two or three Democratic pickup opportunities in the country.
Dan Seals has led since May, and currently holds a 13-point lead over Republican Robert Dold.
The district (which Barack Obama won with 61% of the vote in 2008) is competitive from a
partisan standpoint, but Seals has strong name identification and his ability to win cross-over
votes gives him a strong path to victory.

Dan Seals leads Republican Robert Dold by 13 points • Dan Seals currently leads Robert Dold 49% to 36% – a slightly bigger margin than Seals’ 46% to 38% lead in May. • Seals has stronger name identification (73%) than Robert Dold (47%), which gives him a
broader base of support right now – Seals leads in both Cook and Lake Counties, and
leads with almost every demographic subgroup.

• In a year when the independents in many swing districts are leaning Republican, Dan Seals leads by 5 points with self-identified independents (39% Seals / 34% Dold). The 10th District is still good territory for Democrats • Although the generic ballot is competitive (40% Democrat / 39% Republican),
Democrats in Congress (43% favorable / 51% unfavorable) receive much stronger ratings
than Republicans in Congress (35% favorable / 59% unfavorable).

• Barack Obama retains his popularity in this suburban Chicago district: 59% of voters view him favorably and only 40% view him unfavorably. Seals’ support from Mark Kirk voters shows the breadth of his coalition •Seals is winning 22% of voters who say they voted for Mark Kirk in the 2008 race for Congress. •Dan Seals takes 16% of voters who are currently supporting Kirk for U.S. Senate, and dominates Dold 58% to 12% among voters who are undecided in that race.


http://www.scribd.com/doc/37049700/Summary-Il-CD-10-Poll-9-7-10

[Peacetrain]

1. There is nothing I would love more than to see those smug

media types predicting the demise of the Democrats eat a little crow

[Joanne98]

2. Me too!

[Enthusiast]

8. Me too!

Especially after Boner's remarks about the adults in charge again. What a joke.

[FBaggins]

10. Eat a little crow?

Those "smug media types" have consistently rated that seat as one of 2-3 most endangered republican house seats for over a year now.

[Clio the Leo]

3. well there ya go! nt

[frazzled]

4. Good, but it might also mean bad news for the senate race

That was Mark Kirk's district, and he beat Dan Seals fairly decisively for the congressional seat there. These North Shore districts tend to vote "moderate" Republican a lot, though they went for Obama. If this large, wealthy district votes for Kirk again in the Senate race against Alexei Giannoulis, it's kind of bad news.

[karynnj]

14. He was the incumbent then and Seals, I think far less known

He has also moved to the right in the last year running for Senate. (He actually had voted in 2009 for Waxman/Markey's climate change bill.) It looks like the Senate race is neck and neck. One of the polls looked at how those passing the likely voter screen voted in 2008. Among them, Obama had just a 6% lead over McCain - rather than the 25% he actually had.

That tells the whole story. If the screen is accurate and we can't change it with the actual campaign or the GOTV effort, this is a close race we could lose. The optimistic way of looking at this is that the assumption that the Republicans do an incredible GOTV and we do an abysmal one is already embedded in the model. This means that it is up to Giannoulis and the Democrats - if we do better than the lackluster turnout projected, we win. (The Republicans need to live up to a high standard AND have the Democrats do as badly as assumed.)

[craigmatic]

5. This is good news. Hopefully we'll take this seat and the IL senate seat too.

[mucifer]

6. If only Seals would have defeated kirk a few years ago. Oh well.

[truebrit71]

7. Wish the Dems could win Melissa Bean's seat too...

..but for now I'll be happy with a Seals win and (hopefully, please, please, please) a Scott Harper victory over Judy Bigot...then I'd finally have some representation...

[Cha]

9. Thanks WI DEM! nt

[quiet.american]

11. K&R.nt

[opihimoimoi]

12. KnR #23 :o)

[catgirl]

13. Great news n/t