(R)asmussen Poll--Oregon Governor: Dudley 49% Kitzhaber 44%

[WI_DEM]

Rasmussen
9/8/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Oregon

2010 Governor
49% Dudley (R), 44% Kitzhaber (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Chris Dudley: 57 / 30
John Kitzhaber: 48 / 45

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 54 / 46
Gov. Kulongoski: 45 / 52

[Arugula Latte]

1. Hmmm, I wonder what the Rasmussen fudge factor is in this one.

That said, it is going to be close. Makes me sick that it's even this close. Chris Dudley is a dud.

[Ron Green]

2. Dudley's signs are everywhere. I haven't seen one sign for Kitzhaber.

Maybe all the Oregon Dems are keeping their billboard powder dry.

[Arugula Latte]

5. I've only seen two Kitzhaber signs in our part of Portland. That tells you something.

I'm surprised by the # of Dudley bumper stickers I see in Portland, too.

[golfguru]

3. Dudley is a popular basketball player in these neck of the wooods

and is a new face. However he has never been elected to anything and has zero
experience running. Kitzhaber is the old face. He is very well known around here.
This will be a bell weather election.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

4. This is a telephone survey? And you guys are buying this shit? Really? n/t

[WI_DEM]

7. I post good polls and not so good polls, this is obviously a Ras poll

so take with a grain of salt.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

8. Exactly. Ras is...well...Ras. To be fair, though, most polls taken right now are bogus.

As a political scientist myself, I was shocked and a bit dismayed that my colleagues used polls last week to suggest a "tsunami" coming for Democrats. They should know better. In politics, it is far too early. It's August-September, for godssakes! That's an eternity in politics.

I called my former professor, Al Abramowitz, to protest. He basically said that all the models they were usually proved accurate in previous years. Sure, but I protested that those models don't capture noise. They don't, for instance, target people with cell phones or those most likely to NOT respond to polls. If I'm a homemaker and at home all day and will answer the phone, sure I'm more likely to respond to the poll. If one is a student, however, or only depend on cell phones--which most people are beginning to do--a polls/survey won't capture that kind of bias.

Still, he made some good points. I would just argue that polls don't matter on election day. They only measure day-to-day noise. The real poll will be determined by how much we actually get out and vote! It's all about the ground game. If Democrats don't vote. We lose. That's the bottom line.

He agreed with me on that...

[Bluenorthwest]

6. If polls worked, they'd work.

The campaign started this week. Going to get a Kitzhaber sign today. I've only been here a few years, so I can not really make predictions, but I do know this: voters here loathe over advertising and extended campaigning. So I'm not paying any attention to any polling for another month. Even then, polls are polls.
If polls worked, election nights would be serene rather than unnerving. That is the bottom line. Rass is the worst of them as well, but in general, it is tea leaf reading wrapped up in a bunch of sales jargon.

[hayu_lol]

9. For those who do not see the ads here on DU...

there has been a massive ad campaign for Dudley for a couple of weeks now. What a thrill to see Repugnant ads and none for our party.

Sometimes as much as 3ads to a page.

This guy looks like he would be as effective as gov as Smith was as senator. (not very)

C'mon DU...dump Dudley ads.

[depakid]

12. Sounds like a prescription for disaster

Whenever Republicans out advertise and out enthuse, Dems (even in states like Oregon) have a propensity for losing.

Yet another of the many reasons why I despise the incessant pandering to the right and backhanding of our constituencies on the part of this administration and many in the Senate "leadership."

It's an infection that reaches down ticket into state and local matters, too.

[Dawson Leery]

10. Was not Kitzhaber very popular?

Though this is ras.

[MadMaddie]

11. They are using Landlines folks

How many of you only have cell phones? The population that still has teh majority of landlines are older folks.

Don't believe the hype!

[hayu_lol]

13. Oregon has the I-5 corridor and much of Portland in the blue...

zone. Rest of the state is all red. We really need another dumb jock who has never held any elective office as gov. At least Kitz is a MD and did a pretty good overall job as gov before.

HOW ABOUT DUMPING THE DUDLEY ADS ON DU? His ads also do not identify him as a Repugnant.

[alcibiades_mystery]

14. Little Known Fact about John Kitzhaber's father, Albert Kitzhaber

Albert Kitzhaber essentially founded the modern version of college first-year composition in the 1960's; he remains to this day one of the field of Rhetoric and Composition's most influential scholars. If you've taken a first-year composition course (also called "Freshman Composition") since about 1963, you have been affected by the work of Albert Kitzhaber, whose seminal study, Themes, Theories and Therapy: The Teaching of Writing in College (1963) wrested the distinct teaching of composition from what was essentially an ad hoc series of methods, and transformed the teaching of college writing completely.

[Mickeyc1004]

15. Rasmussen is trash

I live in Washington State, and I don't think it's gonna happen.

Oregon's a true blue liberal state compared to my state and there ain't noway Washington State is going red, at least not yet(lol)

Rasmussen was one of the polls that was way off months and weeks out from the elections in swing and very blue states, they actually had people believing that McCain would take Pennsylvania which wasn't even close and their Washington State polls were just ridiculous.


Rasmussen usually tightens up their fake polls about a week before the election.


One thing I've noticed in very Blue states in the past, the republican supporters are very loud, and often angry and populate most of the online local comment sections in local papers, and have lots of posters, but no one pays them any mind, the state still went blue.

[Mickeyc1004]

16. Case in point: Found this from the 2008 election and Rasmussen

Below: 2008 Governor's election against Gregoire who actually beat Rossi by 6 points.

Rasmussen had Rossi leading by 6 points.



Rasmussen 9/10 - 9/10 500 LV 46 52 Rossi +6.


By October Rasmussen tightened up the polls as usual to reflect the true numbers, but still not quite.


Rasmussen 10/22 - 10/22 500 LV 50 48 Gregoire +2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/governor/wa/washington_governor-584.html