NH GOP Senate Primary: Tea partier may pull upset

[WI_DEM]

NH-Sen: Lamontagne continues to gain ground
by Laura Clawson
Fri Sep 10, 2010 at 07:40:03 AM PDT
It's not just Christine O'Donnell. When it comes to tea party-type candidates in Republican primaries, Ovide Lamontagne's surge in New Hampshire is starting to draw attention.

Lamontagne is reported to have an internal poll showing him just 10 points behind Ayotte, 34% to 24%, with Bill Binnie and Jim Bender drawing 12% each.

GOP sources say if anyone pulls an upset of Ayotte in a crowded primary field, it's more likely to be Lamontagne, the party's gubernatorial nominee in 1996, rather than the two free-spending businessmen in the contest.

The lack of focus on the New Hampshire race -- and the difficulty in prognosticating its outcome -- has largely come from a (maddening!) dearth of quality public polling, but conversations with GOP strategists in the Granite State suggest an upset isn't out of the question.

"Right now, he's the frontrunners' biggest nightmare, because they really don't know what to do," said longtime New Hampshire GOP strategist Tom Rath who is neutral in the race. "You can't attack him because he's like a sacred cow, and you can't get to his right."

www.dailykos.com

[FSogol]

1. LOL - Only 10 points behind.

[WI_DEM]

2. true, but the tea party types might be more motivated to turn out in the primary

[SoxFan]

6. They won't all go with Ovide

The social conservatives will go with Ovide. The libertarians/Paulistas will go with Bender. AYotte will get some because of inertia and pandering.

[Arkana]

3. Can Hodes beat the others in the race?

[SoxFan]

5. Yes

[SoxFan]

4. Not going to happen

Please step out of the overheated Blue Hampshire echo chamber, Laura.

Lamontagne is actually a decent, principled guy, and if we're going to have a right winger, I'd prefer an honest one to a crass opportunist like Kelly Ayotte.

That having been said, Ovide is not going to win.

Ayotte has positioned herself as the Establishment candidate. She has plenty of money, and a decent, though not great, organization. She will finish in first or second everyplace.

Lamontagne will carry Manchester and a few of the bedroom towns (Hooksett, Goffstown), should do well in heavily French-Canadian Coos County, and will pick up pockets of pro-lifers and Catholic conservatives here and there. He won't do as well on the Seacoast, where Bill Binnie, a moderate Republican from Rye who is known is Portsmouth business circles, should scoop up a chunk of the vote. Jim Bender will pick up a share of libertarian conservatives drawn to his outsider message and somewhat wonky appeal (he's done well with editorial boards).

My guess:

Ayotte 41
Lamontagne 31
Binnie 18
Bender 10

[liberalpragmatist]

7. I was hoping that, at the least, Binnie would win

At least he's a social moderate and less extreme on fiscal issues - a Warren Rudman type. I figured if he won, at least we'd get someone who could occasionally be gettable, though I realize that it wouldn't be too often, given how lockstep the Republicans are.

[catgirl]

9. Why assume the repugs would win the general?

We DO have a democrat in the race, after all.

[liberalpragmatist]

10. Oh I know...

... and that's why my first choice would be that Lamontagne wins, because Hodes can defeat him.

All I was saying was that if the seat DOES go Republican, better Binnie than the others.

[golfguru]

8. Not sure about NH but in Delaware O'Donnell could upset Castle

[catgirl]

11. Any reliable polls out yet? n/t