Nate Silver Predicts November Losses for Perriello, Grayson, Teague, and Djou

[tritsofme]

His full House model, with predictions for each district is supposed to be released in the next few days:

Our House model (finally!) just ran for the first time. Can't reveal too much, but which races are people most curious about?

A few teasers: in FL-8, we have Grayson (D) losing by 1.5. MN-6: Bachmann (R) winning by 16. NM-2: Teague (D) losing by 5.4. about 3 hours ago via web

More teasers: NY-1: Bishop (D) winning by 6. VA-8: Perriello (D) losing by 8. HI-1: Djou (1) losing by 1. about 3 hours ago via web

Sorry: Perriello is in VA-5. In VA-8, we have Moran (D) winning by 29. That's all for now... about 3 hours ago via web

http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Bishop is the good news out of the batch I suppose, Republicans don't need his seat to take the majority, but it is a seat they held prior to 2002.

[Jackpine Radical]

1. Bachmann winning by 16??!

Jeez, people. Get the water tested in her district or something.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

35. That district is weirdly gerrymandered

so as to ensure that there are enough inbred wackos to maintain a majority.

[craigmatic]

2. I don't think Grayson will lose he's got more money and conviction than the repub who they had

get from outside the district.

[JustAnotherGen]

4. In agreement

And I live in NJ and have committed a monthly donation to Grayson up through Ddecember. I think he's going to win.

[BonnieJW]

I do too.

I've been donating to him as well and I live in Virginia. Even repubs like him in his district.

[tritsofme]

5. We can only hope his giant pile of money

makes up for some of his bizarre behavior over the past few years. He has gotten much better about being smart over the past few months, but there was a point last year when I really thought he was actively trying to lose the seat.

[tledford]

24. What "bizarre behavior" would that be? Telling the truth? eom

[tritsofme]

37. Trying to sue and imprison a private citizen for making a parody website.

That was some pretty bizarre behavior. But I'm not going to dredge up anything else from the past, like I've already said, it seems like he has finally gotten serious about his reelection bid, and I credit him for that.

[MadMaddie]

25. So Grayson speaking the truth is bizarre?

He puts it out there and at times it may be crude and not pretty. We need more like him.

When he said the Republican health plan was for us to die so the Insurance companies could make money instead of spending it he didn't lie.

[MadMaddie]

26. They are counting on the Democrats to become

disillusioned and not go vote.

"GO VOTE" in November!!

[tritsofme]

36. Demanding that a private citizen be jailed for making a parody website is pretty bizzare.

If you ask me.

But like I said, he's really tuned down the crazy stuff like this over the past few months, and seems to have gotten serious about his reelection bid.

[tridim]

6. Yep, polls don't measure this aspect at all.

[zipplewrath]

17. I was surprised by this

Makes me wonder about Nates numbers. Grayson is relatively popular, and I live in his district. They had to go hunting far and wide to find someone to run against him. The number of local GOP leaders that turned them down was huge. You either love him, or hate him, but he has huge name recognition and he has been fairly popular. It will be interesting. And he has a bunch-o-cash he's sittin' on, plus his own wealth. And man he knows how to fight back.

[Dawson Leery]

22. A few more Alan Graysons would do us much good.

[depakid]

27. Nate's numbers rely on an amalgam of polls, many of which are questionable

in terms of their methodology (as he and others at the site have pointed out themselves at times).

[DrToast]

30. Statistical models

I think Graysons case is an outlier. I understand that he's very popular and everything I've read suggests he should win.

Similarly, there are probably races in his forecast that are too optimistic for the Democrat.

On the whole, these quirks should balances themselves out.

The whole forecast is going to be more accurate than an individual race.

Although lets hope the forecast improves, too.

[bluestateguy]

3. Grayson is a fighter. Fighters win, and weenies lose.

All his other projections on the other hand seem to be reasonable.

[FBaggins]

7. Not bad. No big surprises in there. n/t

[Cognitive_Resonance]

8. Evidence that a lot of hard work is needed between now and election day. nt

[Mimosa]

9. Don't make me sad I gave money to Grayson

And I'm in GA.

[jgraz]

10. The only way I'd be sad I gave money to Grayson is if he turned Blue Dog.

Otherwise, it's worth the investment to keep his voice out there.


And he's gonna win. He's a fighter.

[Dawson Leery]

11. Bishop should win by at least 6 points.

The battle for the House will be in the swing district in the not-so-blue states.

Perriello is most likely gone. Djou will lose by more than 1 point since this is a heavily Democratic district.
Also, Tony Cao(R) from New Orleans should be ousted too.

There is a 50/50 chance that Grayson pulls out another victory. Either you like him or not, so GOTV!

Bachmann will most likely win, but not by much.

[Lint Head]

12. The whole point of saying Democrats will lose is to keep people away from the

polls. It's the 'what's the use' technique.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

18. Exactly! Take a look at my thread...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9111183

We cannot give in. And we cannot give up!

We MUST work...

Off to donate to Grayson and Tarryl Clark!!! :toast:

[RedCloud]

29. Just when the polls are turning our way. An "expert" says too late.

[woodpeckercider]

13. I guess it aint over till the fat lady sings

or something like that?

[EC]

14. I'm hoping Silver is off on some of these

Doesn't he use the other polls to calculate? I don't remember his method but I really hope these are off. We can't lose Grayson for sure...

[WI_DEM]

15. It's too early to predict

[vaberella]

19. way to early.

To the point of which...any sort of bad news right before elections will turn the tides any which way.

[WI_DEM]

16. Djou--tht would be a Dem pickup.

[stevenleser]

20. If Grayson loses, I will be very upset. Almost as upset as losing one or both houses n/t

[The Northerner]

21. Considering Silver's intelligence and past accuracies

I'm frightened by just reading the above.

[RBInMaine]

23. Grayson losing by 1.5? Bachman winning by 16? Doubtful.

[liberalpragmatist]

28. I was actually relieved by his forecast

He says Republicans have a 67% chance of retaking the House, meaning we have a 33% chance of holding out. That may not seem great, but since so many independent analysts and "off-the-record" Dem strategists have said the House is "gone" and that it would take "a miracle" to hold it, a 1 in 3 chance of keeping the majority sounds pretty good to me.

Keep in mind too, his model assumes the GOP wins the generic ballot by 8%. That's consistent with current polls, but it's possible that could tighten, especially as we get close to election day. Democratic turnout is bound to be at least somewhat higher than current likely voter models estimate. And if the generic ballot tightens, the odds of holding the House according to Nate's model should increase.

[dkf]

31. Djou losing by 1 is way too close.

[opihimoimoi]

33. Hanabusa gonna clean his clock

[Vinca]

32. If Bachmann wins by 16 there is an obvious market for psychiatrists in that state.

[myrna minx]

34. More accurately - in her heavily gerrymandered district. n/t

[KingFlorez]

39. Even if Bachmann wins, she'll likely be gone in 2012

Minnesota loses a seat in the House and if Dayton wins the Governors race, Democrats will have complete control over redistricting and you can be sure that Bachmann's seat will be gone.

[Mass]

38. Forecasting at this point is pointless. At best, this gives us an indication of where we are now.

Silver was predicting Coakley with 100 % of certainty at this point in december.