Imagine Rodney Glassman beating John McCain

[ProSense]

AZ-Sen: This is (not) good news for John McCain (w/minor update)

by Eclectablog

Last month, our good friend...Nate Silver gave Rodney Glassman only a 1.5% chance of beating...Senator McCain. But that was before the latest Rasmussen poll came out.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds McCain earning 51% of the vote to Democrat Rodney Glassman's 37%, his best showing to date. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, while six percent (6%) are undecided.

That 14% gap along with Nate's gloomy prediction may seem daunting. But, before you get too far down that path, follow me over the jump for some reasons for hopefulness.

First, let's just get this out of the way: this is Rasmussen polling we're talking about. I don't know what percent you take away from the GOPosaur and give to the Democrat in a Rassy poll but that's got to get us close to single digits, does it not?

Second, have a look at this from Electoral-vote.com:



Hmmm...inneresting trend lines you have there, Grandpa. I mean, heck, that's an 8-point jump in just two weeks since the primary…hmmm…In fact, if we extrapolate those out a few weeks…hmmm…



I realize that it's a leap for me to draw those dotted lines. But, the fact is, Glassman is surging more than anybody predicted.

more

Yeah, it's a leap, but it's a fun one.

[BrklynLiberal]

1. Boy that would really piss off that old geezer..

[Bobbieo]

2. Unfortumately, Glassman does not have a chance in Yuma County.

[karynnj]

3. Interesting - and nice that he got a jump

However, making the projection just by extending the last line segment really is not that sensible. It is true that he trending up and McCain down, but the slope would be less steep in both cases. This puts way too much influence on the last point that may be a real outlier.

[ProSense]

5. I know.

If the numbers were a bit closer, even 43 to 49, there would be hope.

I keep hoping for a repeat of Hagan or McCaskill in one of these races.

[karynnj]

19. Same here - I like that it was posted

As long as we know it's a long shot, it is a great idea to encourage any possibility. This one bears watching - if the next poll is similar, there might be something happening here. It might also depend on McCain doing something wrong - if so this could be a Democratic version of Scott Brown.

There is a scheduled debate on September 26. http://blogs.phoenixnewtimes.com/valleyfever/2010/09/john_mccain_to_debate_ronald_g.php It might be worth watching. McCain was very uneven in his 2008 debates, though far better than George Bush was in 2004. Overall, though he was a competent debater. The key might be to subtly trigger his temper. (Not easy to do because it really has to be subtle. If he is not angry, McCain has the ability to sound very reasonable and seem likable.)

[opihimoimoi]

4. McOld is NOT COUNTRY FIRST

[TlalocW]

6. I would love for McCain to lose

And be relegated to the dustbins of history, facing his last years being rejected by both the majority of Americans as well as his own state's population. The man proved to us all what a piece of shit he truly is and deserves worse.

TlalocW

[jillan]

7. Sept 26th - tune into the debate!!

[Cha]

10. Is Rodney Glassman good at getting his

message across, jillan?

[jillan]

11. Well - let's just say other candidates would've been better.

Not impressed yet - but OFA is working their butts off to help get his message out there.

[Cha]

13. And, Mr Glassman has mccain's daily

flip flops and the hits keep coming ..goin' for him!

[Bleacher Creature]

8. Sorry, but I can't do that.

If I let myself go down that road, I would get myself WAY too excited -- which would likely lead to me being hugely let down in November.

But damn, wouldn't that be incredible . . .

[Cha]

9. "Glassman is surging more than anyone could have predicted"!

That's a really good start! Imagine mccain giving another concession speech in Arizona! :bounce:

[AwakeAtLast]

12. When the GOP preaches "throw the bums out"

they forget that the public sees any Congressperson who has a lot of years in as a "bum".

[Ter]

14. Keep imagining...

:)

[jillan]

15. Why are people unrec'ing this thread? Are there DUers out there that want to keep McCain in office?

[totodeinhere]

23. No, it's probably because the results are coming from Rasmussen, a Republican pollster. n/t

[jimmyflint]

16. That would be awesome! n/t

[Peacetrain]

17. Well you just made my Saturday!!! K&R

[old mark]

18. Personally, I'd love to see McCain lose his seat in the Senate...he has

been destructive enough to our country over the years. I wish Glassman the best.
If I can scrape together a donation, he is on the list.


mark

[rufus dog]

20. During the debate Glassman should ask McCain

In 2008 you stated you knew how to catch bin Laden, two years have passed and you still haven't provided any detail, are you unpatriotic or were you lying?

[kiranon]

21. Good question. But, McCain won't answer it. n/t

[totodeinhere]

22. Usually when someone posts a Rasmussen poll that shows a GOP candidate ahead they get flamed

for posting a Republican pollster. But I guess if you like the results of a Rasmussen poll, then it's OK to post it? Now I'm confused.