GOP insiders skeptical of landslide predictions

[TeamJordan23]

GOP insiders skeptical of landslide predictions
By: Byron York
Chief Political Correspondent

Things have gotten out of hand when it comes to predictions of a Republican victory in the upcoming midterm elections. In recent days, talk of a GOP edge has turned into talk of a GOP blowout. Prognosticators have upgraded the coming political storm from Category 4 to Category 5. Republican control of the House has gone from possible to inevitable.

But Republicans don't believe it, or at least the insiders involved in the midterm effort don't believe it. As they see it, they're in a good position to pick up the 39 seats needed to win control of the House, but polls showing a huge GOP lead are simply wrong. "I'm assuming that Cook and Rothenberg and Rove and the others have got different indications from what we've got," says one member of the House GOP election team. "I don't want to overestimate what's out there."
"I think it's about even," says a strategist involved in the GOP effort. "That is a remarkable place to be, given where we were in the '08 election. But it's about even."

The landslide talk was based on two high-profile polls. One, from Gallup, showed Republicans with an unprecedented 10-point lead in the so-called "generic ballot" question -- whether voters will choose the Democratic or Republican candidate in their congressional election. The other poll, from the Washington Post and ABC News, showed the GOP with a 13-point lead.

There are problems with both polls. First, Gallup's surveys have been pretty uneven this election season. Indeed, Gallup has since released a new poll showing the generic ballot question dead even, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence in its finding of a 10-point GOP lead.

As for the Post poll, Republican insiders say it (uncharacteristically) skews things toward the GOP. The 13-point margin is among people judged by the Post to be most likely to vote this November. Among all registered voters, Republicans have a thin two-point lead in the same poll.


Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/GOP-insiders-skeptical-of-landslide-predictions-799576-102570684.html#ixzz0zB1sGYiS

[TheDebbieDee]

1. Wow! Isn't Byron York a right-wing shill, even. This means a lot!

[geek tragedy]

2. They don't want their people feeling complacent.

Standard operating procedure--downplay the lead.

[JuniperLea]

3. The only lead is in right leaning polls...

Rasmussen, etc.

[Upton]

6. You mean..there are left leaning polls that have us ahead?

Well, by all means, point me to them..I could use some good news.

[RBInMaine]

4. And they should be skeptical, because we are going to give them one hell of a fight !

[Upton]

5. They're trying to avoid over confidence..

makes sense, because turnout's an issue.

[ShadowLiberal]

7. Makes sense really, the media is going out of control with how much they're hyping up those polls

Remember a few months ago when the media was hyping up that the GOP will take back the house, only for everyone to settle down a few weeks later and go "yeah they'll make gains, but capturing the house might be too optimistic".

The same thing is happening now, the media is paying too much attention to two polls (one of which is a daily tracker poll with the last 3 days averaged together, and polls like that are known to be less accurate), and ignoring polls of actual races.

[vixengrl]

8. Here's what I'd like to think is happening--

it's early September. There are still a few primaries yet to go. The Tea Party has had some successes getting some real wingdings in, but the backing of the RNC is--

Well? Do they have the money? And...can the real wingnuts keep the crazy bottled up long enough to fool the regular voter?

Best strategy I can see is that Dem. candidates might be keeping their cash in reserve for a last minute, all-out push that can't be answered by GOP candidates who might be both cash-poor and totally media-averse when it comes down. I noticed Pat Toomey here in PA was running unanswered ads for the longest: I'm kind of waiting for the Sestak ad that says "I might be a little liberal, but Toomey's a flaming nutjob."

What is totally necessary is a strong GOTV effort and a message that "mid-terms matter". The risk to so-called entitlement programs that form an essential social safety net especially in economic downturns if some of these "small gov't" fetishists get in has to be stressed. I think it's dumb, with the economy being what it is, if Dems are not running on what we do best--policy over ideology. Clarify it as a message over and over: the GOP is running on empty, but we've got the juice.

And screw it--if a pasty old rich SOB like McCain wants to call ending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy "class warfare", our message should be a reminder of which class has more folks.

[Pirate Smile]

9. This goes along with what Peter Hart said about the NBC/WSJ poll re Dems will do

fine if they just get out to vote.

A significant number of Democratic voters are just not paying attention or saying they are planning on voting - not because they now support the Republicans, more that they just aren't that motivated. If we get our voters out to vote, we'll be ok. It is really about GOTV. Everybody needs to get to work for the next 6 or 7 weeks.

[JohnA1]

10. wasnt voting but am now

Well, I was one disgruntled dem voter who decided NOT to vote but now I will. I just cant in good faith let those repubs back in power. What turned it for me was all the smugness and the blatant do noting repub attitude towards helping america get out of the hole they dug us in. They put us here and now they want us to reward them by putting them back in power?

I dont believe these polls. The media wants a race, they are setting the narrative and want america to believe that the repubs are americas best hope for getting this country back on track.

I became so convinced I wasnt voting but screw it. I'm voting to keep the dems in power because I relaize even though I am not getting everything I wanted it is better than what the repubs are offering which is NOTHING. I bet you I'm not alone, come election day other holdouts like me will decide to vote.

[johnaries]

13. .

:thumbsup:

Welcome to DU!

[Imajika]

11. York is just helping the GOP get their "lowering expectations"...

...message out. Byron is a Republican propagandist. Everyone knows that.

The GOP is going to have a good November, they know it, we know it, the President knows it, etc.

All we have to do is hold on to the House and Senate and we win. Obama is the top of the ticket in 2012 and it will be a whole new ballgame - especially if the economy really turns in the right direction.

[DrToast]

12. More importantly, it seems that the Democratic message machine is finally kicking into gear

If we can spend the next few weeks reminding people what the Republicans did to this country, it should help minimize the losses.

Let's hope it works.