Elaine Marshall drops 11 pts ?

[catgirl]

A new Rasmussen poll has Elaine Marshall behind by 16 pts. What's up with that???

[taterguy]

1. What's up with pts? Does it really take that much more effort to type "points"?

[lillypaddle]

2. oh good grief

oops. Guess I should have put a comma in my heading.

[catgirl]

6. Taterguy- you have too much time on your hands

To take the time to write this petty nonsense should be the question here, not why I abbreviate something in a title.
You got it, right? Have a nice day.

Edited to add comma.

[taterguy]

10. LFP

[catgirl]

11. zaertiplorfortium

What is UP with you? Not sure if I should laugh, or shake my head. You're from NC, I see. Are you trying to
disrupt a Marshall thread, or just bored, or what? i would think that someone from NC would like to add
something to the conversation, rather than do whatever it is that you're doing. What's up?

[dionysus]

15. you tryin' to be a dic-tater over here?

:shrug:

[doc03]

3. Behind 16 pints of what? n/t

[FBaggins]

4. No. She didn't drop 11 points.

She dropped two points compared to the last rasmussen poll and no change since the recent PPP poll.

But that's two different polling firms (one r and one d). The reality is that the race has opened very slightly, but it's still potentially competitive if we can GOTV

It appears to be an odd situation where there are plent of undecideds... But they lean toward the incumbent (which is unusual). According to PPP, the enthusiasm gap is more pronounced here in NC than in the rest of the country.

[catgirl]

5. She was back by 5 just recently

I just wonder if there's something fishy going on here.

[FBaggins]

8. Not really.

You're looking at two different polls that regularly take a look at the race.

The last three PPP polls show Burr up by 5,2, and then 5 again (with that middle poll inexplicably switching to RV - so there's no real movement). The last three Rasmussen polls show Burr up by 15, 9, and then 16. The fact that they release just a few days apart does not mean that the race swings wildly by ten points every few days. It has actually remained pretty stable. One poll tends to be a little biased in one direction while the other tends to be a bit biased in the other. The "real" race is probably about a 7-8 point Burr lead with his support hovering a bit under 50%... leaving the race potentially competitive if we can drive turnout.

[dionysus]

16. thank you for the in-depth analysis.

[Tarheel_Dem]

12. "the enthusiasm gap is more pronounced here in NC than in the rest of the country."

What accounts for this, you think? I remember some DU'ers crowing that this was a real victory for "true progressives", and a bitchslap to the White House. I'm not sure where the impression was formed, but one very vocal DU'er, involved in Marshall's campaign, seemed to think that Cal Cunningham was the choice of the WH, and thus not a real Democrat.

I didn't take sides in the primaries, because they were both acceptable choices. But, I'd like to know how Elaine managed to cool off so quickly, and how/if her decline will be blamed on the White House?

[angee_is_mad]

13. North Carolinian here

and Elaine is basically MIA. I'm in the 3rd largest city in NC (whoopee) and listen to urban radio and haven't heard anything. I watch tv ALL the time and haven't seen anything. Actually haven't seen to much of burr either.
What I'm hearing down here is those petroleum ads telling people that oil companies shouldn't have to pay more taxes. Those damn things are all over the place.

Here are "Real Americans (actors):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JbqXncIMVk

[Tarheel_Dem]

14. North Carolina here too. And I am all to familiar with those damned ads.

I hear them on The Tom Joyner Show relentlessly. The Oil & Gas industry is spending a ton of money to avoid paying increased taxes. Why don't they just save the damned money they're spending on the ads?

Anyhow, like I said, I didn't really take sides in the primary because I figured I could live with either candidate. However, Elaine was touted as a progressive David, who would slay the Republican Goliath (Burr). I don't see that happening. Aside from the constant emails from her campaign, I see nothing else happening. Could it be financial? It seems that she, and her supporters, ran against the WH in the primaries. Could that be a factor?

[angee_is_mad]

17. most of the "real americans" in ad

mentioned raising taxes and not raising taxes for the oil companies.Trying to do the okey dope on misinforming people with that crap.
Back to Elaine, I think it is a financial reason for being MIA. At least I hope that's the case. Plus she doesn't appear to be the most charismatic person, Her saving grace is that the incumbent is as white bread bland as she is. His only saving grace is that half the state know who he is (which is embarrassing low for him)but no one knows who elaine is. Hell most registered dems don't know who she is.She can't ride Obama's coat tails to victory like Kate did, she is going to have to it on her own.

[Tarheel_Dem]

18. I don't think I even know what she looks like. I somehow wound up on her....

mailing list, but admittedly, I don't even open them. I fully intend to vote for her, but her absence from the airwaves is disturbing.

[mwooldri]

20. News & Record reported Elaine has having a finance issue.

Burr has apparently got a big war chest of funds. Elaine doesn't have that kind of funding.

Sadly it's beginning to look like Richard Burr will remain a Senator :(

[Tarheel_Dem]

21. I kinda figured as much. I would love to have a Dem take that seat.

But as has been mentioned before, the president's not on the ballot, and I don't know that helps or hurts, but she was going to have an uphill climb anyway. Kaye Hagan was able to ride the Obama wave, and Elaine may fall victim to the mid-term malaise.

[KingFlorez]

7. I've heard that Burr has been on the air recently

And that Marshall hasn't really been present at all, so that accounts for much of the change.

[FBaggins]

9. See #8 KF... there really isn't much change to account for.

We still have a shot in this race.

[angee_is_mad]

19. 6.3 million dollars compared to $187,585

with numbers like that you can affair to be below 50%. Seems like my suspicions were correct, Elaine has no money and the DNC doesn't seem to have faith in her. Kay Hagan she ain't.

Here is article that was in my local paper today:
http://www.news-record.com/content/2010/09/11/article/marshall_suffering_from_cash_shortage

If you read the comments you will see how ignorant the local people are. Fortunately, they are a vocal minority who hide behind their keyboard.