"Top Senate GOP Aides Think This Could Cost Them The Majority" (DE GOP Senate Primary)

[Clio the Leo]

SIREN – TOP SENATE GOP AIDES THINK THIS COULD COST THEM THE MAJORITY– “Too Close to Call in Delaware,” per Public Policy Polling: “It looks like there’s a real possibility of a major upset in the Delaware Senate primary on Tuesday, with insurgent conservative Christine O’Donnell leading longtime Congressman and Governor Mike Castle 47-44. That 3 point lead is well within the poll’s margin of error. If Castle is indeed defeated Tuesday night it will be yet another sign that conservatives have a strangle hold on the Republican Party.” http://bit.ly/9jVBAL If Castle is upset, the Democratic nomninee -- New Castle County Executive Chris Coons -- would be favored against this oddball.

http://www.politico.com/playbook/0910/playbook1172.html

[babylonsister]

1. All I can say is...

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Here's another:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9124451
The mother of all Tea Party triumphs?

[Inuca]

3. Insane, isn't it?

I don't know whether to laugh or cry, though I of course I wish her all the luck. Did you notice how she even LOOKS like Palin?

[babylonsister]

5. It's very insane. And just wait until some of the others, like

the guy in Alaska, starts opening their mouths. Fascinating and entertaining indeed. Also kind of scary to think these folks actually have a bunch of people who think they'd be good for this country. :scared:

[karynnj]

7. It is insane - and like you, I do think this is the best chance, maybe the only chance,

for a Democratic win. I hesitate to say that I want her to win because in this insane time, she might become Senator. The same that could be said of Murkowski, that Democrats can work to get her support sometimes and Miller would likely never be willing to compromise, could be said here. Castle is pretty moderate for a Republican. That said, Delaware is a state that should be ours - with a moderate Democrat, like both Biden and Carper (and Kauffman, though he was never elected, and who may be more liberal than both). It might be that more generally they like moderates. If that is the case, O'Donnell winning could mean the Republicans losing.

As to making the difference in controlling the Senate, they would have to pretty much run the table and get all the not sure thing races - which I don't think they will. (The latter is opinion and it is based on skepticism that the enthusiasm gap modelled in all the estimates is as large as predicted everywhere. )

[unblock]

10. at first, germans thought the nazis were a joke, and hitler was a clown.

yes, the analogy is hyperbolic, but we do need to take this seriously.

these people may be insane clowns, but they are insane clowns with immense financial backing and media support.

[glitch]

34. "they are insane clowns with immense financial backing and media support"

well said.

[cilla4progress]

24. AbsoLUTEly!

Palin clone!

[MattyGroves]

26. Based on comments from Free Republic if she wins it's because of the "horny loser" vote

It's obvious that any political group that claims their focus is "financial accountability in government" is full of s*it if they nominate someone who can't even manage her own finances.

[Inuca]

2. This is going to be fascinating

If somebody even cookier than Angle wins, if Rs are crazy enough to make her their local standard bearer in a blue state like DE, I truly think that the party is ready for a full blown implosion out of which something completely different will emerge. Something hopefully better for everybody because I think (though many here will disagree) that the dems need an adult and smart counter-balance.The current R party, with barely any exception (and by most accounts Castle is one of them) is neither and seems to be spinning toward complete intelectul irrelevancy and dishonesty (with Gingrich being a prime example).

[Mass]

4. Cost them the majority? Where do they see the other 50 seats?

There is no way they win 10 seats. 5 or 6 probably, but 10?

[karynnj]

12. I think they are speculating about Murray, Boxer and Feingold

in addition to Reid. They are assuming they lose no states - meaning they are assuming Rubio wins (or possibly Crist caucuses with them). They are assuming they get current Democratic seats in Arkansas, North Dakota, Illinois, Indiana, and PA. This would make Delaware number 10. They also potentially have CO. There is also the possibility that if get to 50 (gaining 9), Lieberman will flip. NOTE I SERIOUSLY DOUBT THEY WIN ALL OF THESE. However, none of the pundits even 9 days before the 2006 election saw us taking the Senate. Biden was projecting (more optimistically than most) that we could maybe get 49 or even 50. I also seriously doubt that Lieberman would join a tea party heavy Republican party.

I think it highly unlikely that we lose all these states. WA, NV, CA, WI, and Il should at minimum split with some to us.

The real danger then is that we will then have this new "tea party" class of Senators - including possibly Rubio, Angle, Miller, O'Donnell, Tommey (? PA), Buck, possibly a NH Senator, and the Utah Senator, whose name I have forgotten. I hope there are enough sane Republicans left, but some have mentioned that these Senators could join with the far right (thanks for the correction Mass) already in the Senate and elect DeMint as the leader. If all this comes to pass, it could be more dysfunctional than the 109th Congress - and that takes doing.

[Mass]

15. It is wishful thinking on their side.

They most likely will get AK, ND, IN, and PA. IL is a different question given that the race is basically tied and it is not clear whether the enthusiastic RW Republicans will vote for a moderate like Mark Kirk.

WA, NV, CA are probably ours, if anything because most polls say so in a season where LV voters polls this year advantage Republicans. WI is different because, at this point, the primary has not happened, so nobody knows who the Republican candidate is. Same for DE, though I suspect that, after this bitter primary, Coons may get its chance with both candidates (bitterly disputed primaries that close to the general are rarely a good thing). Well, we know all that on the 14th, (and I will be happy to see a few weeks of calm after that. Bill Binnie's advertisements in the northern MA media market are driving me crazy-so much money spent for such a small share of votes predicted).

The far left in the Senate? (did you mean the far right, because there is no far left in the Senate). As for the rest, media rumors that I dont even bother reading.

[karynnj]

17. Wow - that was a big oops - You are right - I meant far right

I agree on far left - that likely is just Bernie Sanders and maybe Leahy - and even they might better be termed "left" instead of far left.

[tanyev]

6. Sarah gave us a solid victory in 2008; will her magic work for us again?

:rofl:

[mucifer]

8. I live in IL and I think having insane blago in the media will give us a repub senator and gov

So, if they have a truly crazy, that could be good for us.

[Historic NY]

9. The "jerk off candidate".

[rasputin1952]

11. About a year ago, I said that we are a part of history...

we are watching the implosion of a major political party, and I still hold that the GOP will dissolve before our eyes.

Radicals from either side rarely, if ever win, when one adds to the scenario that the GOP has fractured and some of them are so whacked out as come close to being certifiably insane, things look good for us.

Beyond all of that though, there is still the fact that the GOP has offered absolutely nothing to help the country as a whole. No ideas, no panaceas, they have nothing...no party has ever won with nothing being offered. The biggest things they have are returning to the bush years and still talking about putting Reagan on currency. Talk aboust serious losing positions...:D

[Doctor_J]

14. WTF?

How is a party that will gain 8 Senate seat and at least 25 House seats "dissolving"?

[rasputin1952]

16. You don't know what's coming in the election...

a couple of months is a lifetime in politics, especially when there is an election coming.

Do not watch polls and the like, talk to people...I'm in a heavy Red state, (NE), and the R's here are secure in their House seats, but the voting R's are terrified their party is going to the dogs.

You've got Boehner and McConnell being seen as screech monkeys. Then there are the "fringe" candidates that affect the entire voting situation, there will be carryover in other states just to keep these loons in check.

I've followed politics my entire life, and I've never seen the GOP this boondoggled, even when Nixon resigned. The GOP is trying to figure out who it is, they have nothing and know it. All of these polls are bogus, people are "polled out". The only poll that matters is the voting booth, and if we turn out all over this nation, the GOP goes flat and will be swept under the rug.

Edited to ask: What 8 Senate seats? 25 House seats, which ones?

[Upton]

18. "All of these polls are bogus"

Sorry, but that's just too far out there for me to believe. In fact, if the numbers were reversed, I doubt if you'd be making such claims..

And Nate has got 42 Democratic House seats, which he rates have at least a 60% of flipping. I don't see how you can ignore that..

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/10/g-o-p-has-2-in-3-chance-of-taking-house-model-forecasts/

[Bluenorthwest]

25. Try this one on for size. It is far too early for any poll to have

much meaning. The entire summer was a political wank, the voters were not paying attention. It is barely getting underway now. Same would be true if the numbers were reversed. Polls this far out are simply guesses, and are very rarely correct.
Asking a voter in Aug what they will do in Nov is like asking a 5 year old what they want for their 8th birthday. Chances are, they will change their minds many times before the day arrives.
I understand that the uber focused think this is late in the game, but the game is barely afoot. Too soon to call. Far too soon.
No one can predict the future.

[Doctor_J]

20. The most optimistic polls have the House as a toss-up,

and the Senate about 54-44-2. Most of the traditionally red seats that the wave picked up in 2008 may go back red.

[rasputin1952]

23. Idon't pay all that much attention to polls...

they are skewed from the time they are written, and just about worthless after the next news cycle.

Polls change on a whim, and oddly, I've never known anyone that polled, even when I ask at Town hall meetings and the like. Last year i walked around campus and asked well over 200 people if they, or anyone they knew had been polled...I did not get one positive answer. Years a go, I did a similar walk and question of well over 500 people, and not one of them were ever polled or knew of someone who had been. Just where do these polls take place?

Anyway, that is why I am skeptical of such things.

[CitizenLeft]

28. I'm skeptical too

I don't understand how the pundits can ignore the Latino vote so completely in this hateful atmosphere. Do they really think they will sit this election out with the barrage of racism that's been hurled at them in the last 2 years? And African-Americans may not come out in the droves they (we) did in 2008, but the most listened to black radio station in NE Ohio is pushing-pushing-pushing GOTV right NOW. They have begun a serious campaign, and they're pushing hard (in fact, I'm thinking this is ayndicated, so we're not the only people hearing it). So the "disillusioned" and "depressed" left may be the biggest poilitical myth in many a decade. I'm hoping so. We'll see. I know I'm sure as hell going to vote, and I'm going to nag everybody I know to do the same.

[rasputin1952]

33. For the last couple of elections...

GOTV has become a great issue for blacks. I'm proud they have taken up the torch...we need more caucasians, (like myself), out there beating this message home, hispanics as well...I have no idea where the media came up w/these "polls"...but no poll really counts, except the one we step up to in November.

[KingFlorez]

19. There are never any guarantees of any party gaining anything

We only know the result after the election. That said, the GOP isn't leading in a lot of places because they are popular, it's because people are not thrilled with Democrats and are sitting this won out, it's winning by default. The GOP is still destroying itself by purging moderates and going radical, those are not signs a healthy political party in the future. There is the huge possibility that they don't take either House this year, anyway.

[rasputin1952]

22. The whole point is that the GOP has faltered and many of the

and GOP types are seeing their party fractured and without sensible guidance.

My mother, lifelong R refuses to vote for a D, but in the last 2 presidential elections refused to vote R, although she did vote on local politicians and other items on the ballot.

I have watched the political field, and I know an "oh shit" moment when I see it./..and the GOP is in that situation.

[Doctor_J]

13. I am not seeing the humor

There will be at least 3 teabaggers in the Senate (4 if this nutcase wins) and a bunch in the House. This is good for us how?

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

21. You're not reading properly.

This nutcase would win the primary and then get summarily dismantled in the general election by the Democrat.

[depakid]

27. The nutcase(s) could well the win primary AND become Senator(s) for 6 years

Be careful what you wish for in a year where the party leadership has so thoroughly alienated so many of its key constituencies.

The numbers ain't looking too good at the moment: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Marsala]

29. O'Donnell is different

Rubio and Paul are favorites in Republican-leaning states, and Nevada hates Reid so damn much that they just might overlook Angle's batshit insanity, but Delaware will never vote for O'Donnell. She'd be lucky to get most of the Republican vote there.

[Doctor_J]

30. DOn't forget Alaska

[Marsala]

32. Good point, I did

Though Alaska is so crazy, who knows who they'll elect?

[krabigirl]

31. These tea partiers choose the worst states to run their theocrats. Ro

I don't see her winning in Delaware..maybe somewhere else but not there.