Six New Polls released for House Races

[WI_DEM]

Last week, I noted that the DCCC had, for the first time this cycle, released a batch of internal polling that contradicted the popular CW that there were would be virtually no Democratic incumbents standing in November. Today, the DCCC put more numbers on the table, courtesy of internal polls from Anzalone Liszt and Grove Insight. The races are ones that have been polled, and have been on the target list for some time.

KY-06: Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 52%, Andy Barr (R) 38%
NM-02: Rep. Harry Teague (D) 51%, Steve Pearce (R) 44%
OR-05: Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) 42%, Scott Bruun (R) 29%
PA-12: Rep. Mark Critz (D) 48%, Tim Burns (R) 41%

PA-08: Dem internal poll gives incumbent Murphy the narrow edge
This is right in that zone where an incumbent's internal poll is in the netherworld between reassuring and terrifying. New numbers (PDF) from Global Strategy Group on behalf of second-term Democrat Patrick Murphy shows him leading his GOP opponent(former Congressman Michael Fitzpatrick) by just four points (47-43). Though the release came recently, the poll itself was conducted in mid-August, meaning some dust certainly has accumulated on those numbers

NV-03: Independent pollster gives vulnerable Dem expanded lead
From the outset of the 2010 election cycle, freshman Democrat Dina Titus appeared to be one of the most vulnerable members of her party seeking re-election. She had well-funded, legitimate competition in GOP state legislator Joe Heck, and she had a district that elected Republican Jon Porter from 2002-2008. However, new data from the crew at Mason Dixon shows that Titus is more than holding her own against the GOP upstart. The latest M-D poll in the district gives Titus a four-point lead (47-43) over Heck. Their previous survey in the district put Titus up by only a single point.

www.dailykos.com

[still_one]

1. shhhhh, don't tell the MSM. I would love to see their credibility proven wrong AGAIN if we are able

to retain control of the House and the Senate

Everyday they constantly scream about the demise of the Democrats this November.

[nevergiveup]

2. Conventional wisdom has it that Pelosi is out and Orange is in.

You read and hear it everywhere. The above polls are obviously outliers.

[FBaggins]

3. The above polls are not "outliers" - but neither are they good news.

With the possible exception of the Nevada 3rd.

Most of these races are in the "leans Democrat" category already. We have (using Cook's table) 52 Democrats with seats that are rated as tossup or worse. Are we really supposed to be encouraged that the DNC feels the need to selectively release internal polling on races in the 55-70th most-endangered seats.

It's not at all encouraging, for instance, to see Critz under 50% in the PA 12th. Jack Murtha used to win that seat with 60% pretty regularly.

The scary thing is that we know that the DNC has internal polling on lots of races. I'm not saying that internal polling slants one way (that much is obvious), but we know that they're going to release the ones that are the most favorable. I can't believe that the best that they can do if point out that our incumbent in the OR-05 is only at 42%. Yeah... I expect to win that race, but if we lose it we've possibly lost 60 seats. Is the best they can do a reassurance that they don't expect to lose 60?

In short... I'd be more comfortable if they could show more leads of this nature for tossup races... not for races that we can win and still lose the House by a dozen seats.

[Cosmocat]

4. PA 12th ...

Murtha was a friggen 15 or so term incumbant who had as much name recognition as any member of the house, probably shook every hand in the district and gotten pork for more folks in the district tha not ...

NO ONE is going to run away with that race when it opens up, and if I am correct, it has an edge in registered republicans, why the Rs got all cocky about picking it off in the special election ...

[WI_DEM]

6. I agree

It's a socially conservative district that went for McCain over Obama. The GOP was sure they were going to win the special election, so I expected this to be a competitve district and it is. I also think the KY race where Chandler is up by 14 is actually pretty good and even New Mexico which is one of the GOP's top targets to be up by 7 is good. Oregon is a bit of a disappointment that we aren't over 50, but hey the dem is up by double digits.

[FBaggins]

14. Critz won the seat by almost ten percent in May.

if I am correct, it has an edge in registered republicans

Nope. Reportedly 2:1 Democratic... but they're largely conservative democrats (McCain won the district narrowly). To be at 48% in an internal poll is not good news. Luckily, he's a recent incumbent running against the same opponent he beat in May... so the normal "incumbent under 50%" rule probably doesn't apply.

[WI_DEM]

5. Here's more to mull over:

OK-02: Boren claims huge lead in internal polling
A number of the most vulnerable Democratic seats this cycle are in districts that leaned heavily to John McCain in 2008 (think Chet Edwards in TX-17, for example). One apparent exception to the rule is southeastern Oklahoma, where right-wing Democratic incumbent Dan Boren released an internal poll from Myers Research showing him up 65-31 over Republican nominee Charles Thompson. While the district is solidly GOP at the presidential level, Boren has not been seriously challenged there, and Thompson lacks the resources to make the race a competitive one.

CO-04: Dem internal claims a tie race in swing district
In a rather transparent counterpunch to that ugly Ayers McHenry polling dump last week, incumbent Democrat Betsy Markey has released internal polling showing a coin flip between her and GOP challenger Cory Gardner. The poll, conducted this week by Bennett Pitts and Northington, puts both candidates at 38%, and has two third-party candidates snatching 7% of the vote. One criticism of the Ayers McHenry poll was that (mostly rightward-leaning) third party candidates were not offered as an alternative in their polls.

CT-05: Even GOP internals in district put Murphy at a toss-up
In addition to their work in central Arizona, National Research has been busy in the northeastern part of the country, as well. Even their polls, however, could not provide a lead for GOP challenger Sam Caliguiri. The internal poll, conducted last week, put second-term Democrat Chris Murphy one point ahead of Caliguiri (40-39). Another GOP poll, that one from Ayers McHenry, had Murphy ahead of Republican Steve Greenberg (who wound up losing the primary to Caliguiri).

IA-01/IA-02/IA-03: GOP poll puts Dems ahead in three key races
Call this one the "holy shit" surprise poll of the day, especially when you consider the source. GOP pollsters Voter/Consumer Research headed into the field in Iowa, and found that all three Democratic incumbents polled hold respectable leads over their Republican challengers. The big surprise among the three is veteran Rep. Leonard Boswell, who most folks conceded was trailing Republican challenger Brad Zaun. The GOP pollster begs to differ, however, putting Boswell up by nine points (48-39) over Zaun. In Iowa's 2nd district, second-term incumbent David Loebsack holds a similar edge over Mariannette Miller-Meeks (47-39), while over in the 1st district, second term Democrat Bruce Braley holds a slightly larger edge over Republican Ben Lange (50-39). The pollster found slightly closer races when they confined their sample to so-called "certain to vote" participants

IL-10: New Anzalone Liszt poll gives Dems good shot at a pickup
Illinois' 10th district has, throughout this cycle, always felt like that one GOP-held seat that seemed destined to flip to the Democrats. A new Anzalone-Liszt poll on behalf of Democratic nominee Dan Seals seems to confirm that supposition. The poll has Seals leading Republican nominee Bob Dold by thirteen points (49-36). The poll is an internal poll, but even right-wing pollsters We Ask America have given Seals the lead in this swing district thus far.

MS-01: Dem internal poll puts Childers ahead in tough district
This internal poll might be one of the more pleasant surprises of the week, as it shows a Democratic lead in a district that a lot of pundits probably would have left for dead a month ago. The poll, from Anzalone Liszt, gives Democrat Travis Childers a narrow edge over Republican Alan Nunnelee (46-41). Childers won a special election in June of 2008 in a district that went heavily for both George W. Bush and John McCain.

NC-08: Even Republicans concede Kissell up front in key race
Kind of a curious release here--the campaign for Republican nominee Harold Johnson has released an internal poll by Public Opinion Strategies. The curious thing about this GOP internal poll is that it shows the Republican candidate trailing his Democratic rival. The POS poll puts Kissell at 39%, with Johnson trailing at 34%. One of the quintet of DCCC polls released yesterday showed Kissell up double digits on Johnson (48-36).

PA-04: Dem internal claims massive lead for Altmire
One district that apparently the Democrats don't have to worry about defending is the swing 4th district in Western Pennsylvania. At least, that's the case if a new internal poll on behalf of second-term Rep. Jason Altmire is to be believed. The Anzalone Liszt poll shows Altmire with a two-to-one edge over Republican Keith Rothfus (51-24). Rothfus scored what was generally considered to be an upset win over NRCC fave Mary Beth Buchanan in May's primary.

WV-01: Even GOP internal concedes Dem lead in key open seat
Perhaps in response to an internal poll by Democrat Mike Oliverio (one which showed him up 16 points), the campaign for Republican David McKinley rushed out their own internal poll. While the poll shows Oliverio out in front, the margin is quite a bit smaller. The poll, by Public Opinion Strategies, puts Oliverio up five points (41-36) on McKinley

[FBaggins]

13. Looks like more of the same. Why is any of that good news?

Ok... two of them (NC and WV) are good news. Let's take them in order.

OK-2: They really start the sentence with "the most vulnerable Democratic seats"... trying to hint that this should be one of them (so if we're leading it's a good sign). In reality, the OK 2nd has never been on anyone's list of endangered seats. It's Safe D on every list I've seen and Boren has never won by less than a 2:1 margin.

CO-04: Hey... at least this one is a seat on most tossup lists. But let's face it... and internal poll showing an incumbent tied at 38% in an R-leaning district is really saying "we're going to lose, but at least we won't get embarrassed".

CT-05: - We're supposed to get excited about a claimed tie? This is really the same story as the OK-2 race. Cook has it as Likely D. 538 says an 84% chance of a D victory. Murphy won two years ago by 16%... and we're supposed to think that it's good news that someone admits the race is tied? It's had better not be anywhere close to tied or we're in big trouble.

IA-01/IA-02/IA-03 - Addressed in an earlier thread. Only one of these three was really expected to be a competitive race, and it remains one. The poll is mildly good news... hardly the "holy sh1t surprise"

IL-10: Yep. It's good to know that the long-term consensus 3rd-most-likely republican seat to switch still looks like it will switch... but is this really evidence that the prognosticators are overly pessimistic?

MS-01: Similar to CO. An internal poll showing an incumbent under 50%? Cook and the NYT have this one as a tossup (while Silver has it as an 84%R chance). I'd say that Childers' poll is consistent with the tossup call.

NC-08: The best news of the bunch. This is a real tossup race (at least on the cards I've seen). Kissel has been in close races before and knows how to win.

PA-04: Again... whoop-de-doo. If we lose this race, we've lost 80 others. It's solid/likely D in the ratings I've seen and Altmire won that seat by 12% last time. I think this is one of the "tea party knocks off the mainstream republican in the primary" races.

WV-01: Similar to the NC race.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

7. Momentum will continue to build for Democrats. nt

[Jester Messiah]

8. Yeah, seems like they peaked too early.

Gives our side plenty of time to mobilize and build momentum. Hopefully we can time the pendulum-swing just right and knock those bastards on their asses.

[impik]

9. Pundits going to have tons of eggs on their faces

[BluegrassDem]

10. I live in KY-06 and I can tell you that there's no way Chandler will lose

Ben Chandler is a scion. His family's name is like gold around here due to his grandfather. It's about as close to a Kennedy as you can get in Kentucky. His grandfather's name graces the University of Kentucky Hospital.

The GOP would be better served spending their money elsewhere cause Chandler won't lose here. Sure, it'll be his most competitive race due to the year, but no way some unknown like Andy Barr would beat him.

Let me add that I'm not a Chandler fan due to some of his votes. He did vote against health care. I even thought about not voting for him because of that, but obviously I will now.

[yellowcanine]

11. It seems when we go from generic polls to specific races, Dems look better.

Let's hope this is a real trend and it gets stronger as we get closer to November. Will be interesting to see if any of the perennial prognosticators buck the CW and start hinting that the Republicans may not run away with things after all.

[FBaggins]

12. Sure... when the DNC picks the specific races

and uses our candidate's internal polling.