Quinnipiac CT Senate: Blumenthal 51% McMahon 45%

[WI_DEM]

This is somewhat closer than most other polls--why would McMahon be gaining?:

Quinnipiac
9/8-12/10; 875 likely voters, 3.3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Connecticut

2010 Senate
51% Blumenthal (D), 45% McMahon (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Richard Blumenthal: 55 / 39
Linda McMahon: 45 / 41

www.pollster.com

[DrToast]

1. How do you know she is gaining?

What were Quinnipiac's numbers before?

[WI_DEM]

2. I'm basing it on other polls which have given Blumenthal a double digit lead

Maybe this is good for a Quinnipiac Poll, I don't know.

[FBaggins]

16. I'd say it's more a case of Blumenthal declining rather than McMahon gaining.

Not that there's much of a way to tell the difference.

Quinnipiac actually shows the decline the best. In January they showed a 41% lead. Then it was down to 33%... then 25%... then 20%... and 17%... and 10%... and now 6%.

Rasmussen actually showed the gap increasing from 7% to 9% (and Blumenthal climbing back above 50%) and I assumed that it indicated that the bleeding had stopped.

I'm still reasonably confident that Blumenthal pulls this one out. It's just getting closer than I'd like. I'd hate to see DE move back to our side only to have CT drop into the competitive zone. Luckily, I don't think there's enough time for the decay in his numbers to hit the danger zone before the election. He just needs to avoid a major gafe.

[TlalocW]

3. Let's just hope it's just this one poll

Last thing we need is the WWE in government.

TlalocW

[Mrsadkins9399]

13. ugh

I'm not from CT but I shudder at the thought of Vince McMahon anywhere near the Government.

[Robbins]

4. CT

They had Lamont winning the primary as Governor so Blementhal's lead could be higher.Bottom line he will keep Dodd's seat despite
what the MSM tried to do with him.It Is only a question of how much he will win by.

[sharp_stick]

5. Money plain and simple

McMahon has been on the air for at least the last 4 months because she's financing her own campaign and has promised to spend up to 50 million dollars to buy the Senate seat.

This is tighter than the last poll, IIRC Quinnipiac had Blumenthal up by 10 last month but since then McMahon has had and won the puke primary and Blumenthal has been quiet. Rassmusen has Blumenthal up by 9 as of last week.

I'm encouraged by the Favorable/Unfavorable numbers, even with McMahon planting stories about Blumenthal he's clobbering her on the favorability charts.

I don't know how this will wash out but my opinion is that if Blumenthal can stay positive in his campaign he should win it by a fairly comfortable margin.

[Mass]

6. Previous Quinnipiac was 50-40, so it is closer, but Blumenthal is above 50 %

and there are only 3 % undecided.

[DrToast]

7. Not to mention her favorables seem maxed.*

*

[sharp_stick]

8. Also the previous poll

was registered voters and this is "likely voters". Given how pumped all the pollsters seem to think the pukes are they generally get pretty highly represented in that filter.

[FBaggins]

17. Good catch. I hadn't noticed that.

Likely accounts for the entire shift.

[Dawson Leery]

9. I find this hard to believe.

Only 39% see her as fit to be a Senator where 60%+ see Blumenthal as being fit to be a Senator. If this is the case, then Blumenthal should be polling higher.

[Dawson Leery]

10. Flawed poll! 37% of poll respondents were Republicans.

CT voter registration by party:
Republicans: 21%
Democrats: 37%
Ind: 41%
Other: 1%

Democrats are energized to vote in this state because we have a chance at taking back the Governors Mansion.
The last time a Democrat won the Governors Mansion was by William O'Neill in 1986.

[Arkana]

11. Wow, that's pretty blatant.

Oversampling Republicans by 16% will skew the poll 5-6% in the other direction. I think Blumenthal wins comfortably.

[Dawson Leery]

12. A 12% win for him would be the worst case

scenario in an honest poll.

[Marsala]

14. Likely voter filter is probably overestimating Republican turnout

At any rate, this poll is the best case scenario for McMahon. She can't do any better.

[Dawson Leery]

15. See my post above